I agree, Ian. I was planning to.
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Sorry how about ‘First Annual Carter DROY / AFC North / Myles > TJ / Homogenous Cult Cab throw down ‘
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Perfect! You’ve got it all covered except for the F*ck Pat
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That phrase is reserved for those that have shared many bottles, maybe after they get together, it will get shared with others
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Very true it is almost sacred
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Thought I’d throw this in here.
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WOW, strong piece.
Brings up a lot of points that are relevant. I thin some of his points a bit disconnected to the wine business (talking about MBS and CDO’s), but the aging and decreases in disposable income are certainly issues.
I’m wondering if he missed something- transference of wealth? Though, it’s not determined that people will spend the money on a wine life if they had a large inheritance.
If there is no entry (visitation included) to Napa wines during one’s middle life period, why would they start drinking them when they get the inheritance in their 50’s or 60’s?
That’s not a great long term business plan.
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I also thought this was a subliminal assumption
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I couldn’t tell if it was 15% abv zin fueled rambling, or output from a ChatGPT session + FRED chartfest
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Is there a difference?
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Tim Carl is a smart fella. that’s not for debate.
but he’s been saying the sky is falling in napa for a while.
I think you missed my point, or I wasn’t clear.
Most people don’t start collecting wine until later in life too. 40 has kind of been the time when people start collecting. Two totally separate points though.
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He definitely rambles, and this certainly has a pedantic undertone, but there are points he makes that if you can get past the rambling, it’s an interesting article.
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Apologies as I probably hit the wrong reply
I was riffing off your last sentence, but not your over thought as I did not read the article yet.
My response was more of a general though on the thread, sorry 
Must be a SVB consultant.
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The problem I have with the article is that it reads like he started with his conclusion and then put together a case to support it rather Vice versa
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No, all good, I knew you were referencing the transference of wealth comment I made. I frankly have no idea how it’s all going to play out, but it’s been talked about for a while. Though you are right, people are living MUCH longer now. Given the genes on both sides of my family, my parents will be around for at least another 25 years, and I’ll be retired by then!
It was something I would have liked to have seen this guy riff on, and what his take was.
My thought wasn’t in the article, more my own musing about it, and encouraging good discussion, like this!
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100% agree with you.
Though I think about 70% of his points are an interesting read.
I think there are real live concerns, but I don’t think we are on the verge of collapse. There will forever be a willingness to make wine in Napa. Heck, I even have my own dreams, which I am highly unlikely to act on (mostly because I won’t ever get my hands on the fruit I want).
Think about this, what if there is renewed interest in Napa wine that comes from the Peninsula audience? Given the amount of wealth there, it could reinvigorate Napa.
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Definitely not many people collecting at my age. Seems like 40 and older like Ian suggested for most.
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