Prices and costs continue to rise, some more than others. New projects left and right asking for $200+. Looks like the secondary market has softened to 60c on the dollar for many wines. Wineries emailing the list to ‘verify authenticity’ of auction lots. Blue chip wines look to be down anywhere from 20-50% from prior value (though still above release).
Is this a bubble on the verge of popping, or has this been status quo for awhile that I am just now seeing?
I’m not a flipper and only buy from a few lists. I want to support good people making good wines. But if these are signs of a pending market adjustment, I’m concerned things will get bumpy for lots of folks.
Any examples of good wines dropping 40%? I track a lower ramge than $200, but the ones I see discounted heavily seem to be from lesser vintages or wineries.
There seems to be a pull back in many high end wines in 2023 and from what I hear from the people in the trade Q4 was particularly difficult. Based on the number of offers I was getting in Q4 this seems to be true.
Yes I agree with everyone on pricing its pretty outrageous on the top end. the old 200 is now 300 and I see a few well know wines pushing 500. Was there in november and like most of us the tasting fees were eliminated due to past relationships. However, on a retail basis the tasting fees for the three days were in the neighborhood of 2000 plus per person for four. Bordeaux is a steal in QPR.
I also would tend to buy Napa wines that were not available at retail locations and auction. Most come up at both now.
So far no real authenticity e mails but a few- do I want to continue e mails.
Also concur in getting many offers for 17 vintage.
Frogs Leap 2019 Estate Cabernet Sauvignon which is the current release can be had for $59.00-$69.00 at a million outlets ($75.00 at the winery)
Classic old school Cab. that blows away most of all those Cabs priced in the stratosphere, at least for my tastes. Galloni (Vinous) also loves it as well as other critics.
Added bonus, the Estate is beautiful and makes for a wonderful visit.
I never thought of these sites but thanks to all my new friends on berserkers it has now become an option
just always felt like I would like to support wineries plus I was always sure of how the wine was cared for my great 125 dollar wines are now 250 thanks to all of you for making this a comfortable option
As for 40 percent discounts on good , wines have not seen many if any. Then again one persons good wine may not be anothers.
Example on pricing I bought some bard at release price. took some friends to a visit there last month The price at the winery was already up to 160 that’s a nice leap from the release.
I just saw an article stating that Screaming Eagle was available at Costco. That’s a good thing. It means they’re not selling out at the winery.
But I don’t get the title of the thread - questions and concerns. What is the concern? Overpaying? For my 2 cents, paying $200 for any wine from anywhere is overpaying.
Everybody and their uncles want to be in the wine business today. So you get NBA players buying in and since price doesn’t matter to them, they can use it as a tax write-off and live in a nice house in a vineyard. I really don’t feel any desire to support them, or anyone else who drops in, pays tens of millions, and tries to sell wine for $200, $300, $500 a bottle. There is excellent wine available for far less and there’s a lot more to wine than big, ripe, jammy Cabs.
I’ve dropped off several NorCal lists as the winery prices go up and up and the auction prices go down and down. It just doesn’t make sense for me to pay $200 for a new release when I can get a slightly aged bottle of the same wine for like $115ish. If the wineries are doing are doing well by increasing their prices, more power to them, but it doesn’t make sense for me as a consumer with a limit budget.
Good question. Less about overpaying and more (what I perceive to be) a softening market and thereby demand. If things don’t sell through, someone will be left on the hook in some manner or another. Is it the vineyard laborer, the farmer, the vintner, etc.?
This is one part of what I am getting at. I haven’t followed wine long enough to know if this is business as usual or a new trend. The other part of it is the very top wines that traded for 4-6x release price 1-2y ago look to be around 2-4x.
Is there going to be a point where there is such discordance between asking price and market price that producers are unable to sell through their wine, and what would the downstream effects be? Wineries are comprised of people at the end of the day.
There is 1 particular Napa wine that I do flip annually. Will be interesting to see what will be the release price and if there will be a resale market.
I’m seeing secondary markets for most everything have dropped substantially in the last 6-12 months. Wine, whiskey, watches, sport cards, etc. Anything collectible has taken a pretty big haircut, at least 30-40% in many cases. It doesn’t apply to everything and every label, but the vast majority of stuff has come way down.
Mainstream examples beyond wine:
Rolex Batgirl - Nearing $20k last year, now barely moving for $14k
Pappy Van Winkle 15yr - Nearing $2100 last year, now slowly moving for $1600 and trending down
1986 Michael Jordan Fleer PSA 10 Rookie - Sold in 2022 for $210k, now auctions getting pulled for $120k and not selling
I casually track prices out of my own curiosity. I’m sure someone else has better data than I do, but I don’t think anyone would dispute that prices across the board are down for almost all secondary markets. There are no doubt exceptions for certain markets and goods, but generically speaking in this particular context.
FWIW the SE denies they sold their wine to CostCo and claims the wine was bought at auction.
I am glad that my tastes have changed away from Cabernet so I don’t play in that sandbox anymore but even my favorite varieties are creeping up in price.