Scarecrow? 50% based on what ?
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I was not thinking scarecrow, suspicion incorrect! Lol
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What is/was your wine?
If the winery isn’t selling out I wish they’d put me on the list, it’s been 14 years and I keep asking !
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The most insightful nugget I have mined from this thread is that there has been almost no meaningful
information. A whole lot of, “I feel like this is happening, but can’t prove it”.
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I am getting many fine deals at auction, many below release. Many wonderful wines are just sitting. Anecdotally, lower end burgundy prices have come down a lot.
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How much below release after factoring in vig and shipping?
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The Rolex market was so insanely stupid last year Im glad to see it’s correcting. Datejusts selling for $15k, Sub Dates for $18k and so on.
The same trend is happening in the car market. Some collectible cars are still in the stratosphere, but the poor condition or high mileage cars are dropping down fast.
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An example would be the magnum of Tusk on winebid. 750s used to go for $1k and now that’s the going rate for a mag. The graph pretty clearly shows a 50% drop in value.
To my understanding, Tusk is a top-level wine and highly exclusive. I was very surprised to see the pricing shift.
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Not a closely held secret: all Napa ‘cult’ Cabernets and blends taste pretty much the same, which is all well and good when the party will never stop (until it does).
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This is why I am slowly moving away from Napa. After a while, all my tasting notes are pretty much identical. I’ve found some great wines from things like CF heavy blends, but after a certain point, Napa cabs are very homogenous.
The very very top ones (Harlans and such) are still somewhat singular, but they are in cloud cuckoo land in pricing these days.
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Same here. While I’m not complaining about getting good deals, it does make me wonder about industry outlook.
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Fair, but anecdotal, I would be curious to see how prices have shifted across the top 20 most traded producers on the secondary. I’m also playing devils advocate to a degree as I generally agree that the luxury market has softened, but I am cautious.
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Cult has taken on a pretty broad term these days, but SVDs are generally very different and taste very different even with the same winemaker. A lot of cult wines share similar characteristics, but to say they all “pretty much taste the same” is just false.
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I find it curiously coincidental that when crypto prices are elevated, the secondary values on luxury goods like sports cars, Rolexes, and blue chip wines take off.
My working theory is that a lot of folks are using luxury goods to launder their crypto gains. I have zero evidence for this, but I just find it to be way too coincidental, and I find it to be particularly annoying as both a watch and a wine lover who enjoys wearing great watches and actually consuming great wines.
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Edit. Just saw you mentioned it waa Scarecrow
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Huh??
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1000% this. That was a ridiculous comment. Maybe we can chalk it up to you drinking too much Burgundy tonight?? 
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All luxury goods are starting to soften. I know of at least one Napa producer that buys their own wine back at auction (including driving up the price) to create the illusion of demand. I assume if they’re doing it, they’re not the only ones… I don’t think it’s unique to Napa, though … lots of Burgundy sitting on shelves, too, at ridiculous prices without bites.
I’ve also dramatically reduced my Napa buying – pretty much only buy Di Costanzo, VHR, Kinsman, and Frog’s Leap, now – drinking mostly Champagne and Burg these days. Don’t agree all “cult” (term I hate) Napa cab tastes the same, though. I think that’s kind of a pejorative - and antiquated - view that some drinkers of primarily old world wines like to tell themselves.
That being said, I agree and can’t wrap my own head around the idea of launching a project at ~$300/bottle and expecting people to line up to join an “allocation list.” I understand the economics of how expensive it is to buy fruit from Beckstoffer, buy time at a crush pad, buy barrels, store them and age the wine, buy bottles, labels, corks etc at a smaller scale, etc … what that translates to in terms of a producer’s cost to bring a bottle to market. But unless you truly believe your bottle of George III is vastly different than the 20 other bottles of wine already on the market from the same vineyard … you don’t have to box yourself into that cost structure, either. Nigel and Massimo aren’t doing that, just as an example from my buy list.
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#NailedIt
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