Oak, alcohol, vineyards spread all over the valley all match. The 2019 only has Cab, CF, and Merlot. Missing PV and Malbec, but that’s the 2019. Good as guess as any. I was considering possibly another Alpha Omega offering, we already had 2-3, could be their 2022 Prop red. They use all 5 varietals from all over the valley. Price point aligns. Oak treatment doesn’t line up, but alcohol does for the 2021. Who knows. They don’t give enough details anymore.
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I just have a hard time paying that much without being able to figure out what it may be. AO was guessed for 429 and 472 and I believe both turned out to be incorrect.
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AO is a much better fit than Blackbird other than history.
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Jonah,
I was just gonna type that in for an edit to my source. AO has all the listed variteals on JD’s website.
Price on JD’s website is $100ish though. Not sure what later vintages sell for.
The '21 is listed at $119 on their website, which might be the club price. Everything lines up well but is far from definitive.
What were the guesses updated to on 429 and 472?
429 looks like Vineyard 29 (maybe Ceanda bottling) or Elizabeth Spencer.
472: This one might have a better chance of AO: I say that because JD uses “Cabernet Sauvignon” Proprietary Red Wine for the 2019 rating. It’s from “Atlas Peak region”. and 1500 cases made for 2019. Easy to see some slippage in sales from 2019 vintage, winery bottles some 2021 shiners offered up to best bidder under NDA. Viola de Negoce Lot 472.
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Thanks!
I have an interesting thought on the lack of clues - while on the one hand I would prefer to have a solid guess in mind, it almost feels more “authentic” that dN can’t provide clues. If I were a well-known winery charging $100/$200+ I would make sure to have this as tightly sealed as possible. That’s just the lawyer in me.
On the other hand, not sure what prevents the new dN owners from simply lying and bottling their own stuff in there. Not like we can prove anything.
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I’m on the fence with this one as well. I’ve bought two cases lately (497 & 500) but paying $30 a bottle or so starts to stretch my definition of a weekday bottle. I buy dN to save my “expensive” wines, but I can buy some pretty nice (known) wine in the $30-35 range. So I’m not sure where this falls in my typical categories. Too expensive routinely for a weeknight, but it’s also not a “special occasion” wine.
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The lack of clues on recent lots is an interesting topic. My view is that ideally it is a balancing act where they give enough clues for WB users to figure out the source with pretty good confidence. This will encourage dN customers to buy more. Since the source is not 100% certain and not widely spread on social media, it isn’t likely that the wine club members will find out. This new policy of almost completely keeping us in the dark will just lower sales - I know it has for me. All I can surmise is that WB sleuthers have been successful enough at their picks that it freaked out the wineries, so now the new tighter NDAs.
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I look forward to hearing how the latest batch of wines taste. At >$300 a case and nearly impossible to suss out who the source is, they had better be out of this world. Otherwise, I forsee DN losing a lot of business to Casemates and other “known label” wine discounters. Other places like WTSO and Last Bottle also do a much better job of not forcing you to buy a whole case of an unknown. I’d be much more likely to buy a 4-pack of a $20 wine from DN than a 12-pack of the same wine, just because I want to limit my potential loss if I don’t like it.
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It’s a cult does not matter what it is they will be loved 
relax I kid… Kind of
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This offer makes me wish I had bought 2 cases of 429 instead of 1. .
Better price
Better % discount
Better vintage 21
More clues
Had 429 last night in preparation for 496 being offered this week. It is young, but delicious. Reminds me of many of the early 2019s. I am comfortable if lots 500 and 497 are my last 2022 purchases… I think the next six months I hope to stock up on a 2023 Chardonnay and then be ready for the 2023 Napa cab about a year from now. Obviously, a screaming good deal could lure me in, but I feel like I have a good sample of 2022 Napa
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At the end of the day we are buying on trust. Trust is hard to gain but easy to lose. Sleuthing out the source was not part of the model. New owners will realize that they are only one “deal” away from losing our trust. We are discerning customers after all Anyway that gives me the confidence to buy. Only issues I have had were some of the labeled Italian wines that were coming from a bulk trader in that market.
FWIW my 500 just shipped tonight - go figure
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I missed on 497 because I couldn’t decide - that was probably the most intriguing. But may bite on 496 and 499. We’ll see.
Happy to have grabbed a sixer of 497, and now 496, especially after missing most of the earlier 50/100 lots and the higher end offerings of years past. These can cellar with some of my 2018s while I drink all the bottles I’m swimming in from last December’s warehouse clearing sales. I feel I’m also done with the 2022s while we wait for 2023.
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The last one people people thought was AO (429 I think), I can pretty confidently say it is not. Or if it’s sourced from AO, it’s pretty badly mismanaged by Camerons winemaker.
It’s not bad at all, it’s a pretty good wine, and actually drinks better right now than AO LB, but AO LB is definitely a higher quality wine.
I have a pretty decent amount of AO in my cellar (including lots of proprietary, left and right bank blends etc), and the style isn’t the same.
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FYI - Wine Slash currently has 2021 Foppiano RRV Zin for sale for $20. Just posting as it relates to the recent lot 492 and 494 offerings, which could have been 2022 Foppiano!
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S1 - Totally agree on the pricing issues…at $12-$15/btl for the early dN vino, it was an easy risk to take, esp given the startup success and quality in the bottle. When we start tipping $30/btl, now there is a ton of competition (flash, broker, GO, etc.) that makes the risk/reward equation much tougher to swallow. My hunch is that it is either going to margin enhancement (ie. Cam wrote off a bunch of the early offerings as a method to build share) OR going to less-effective procurement (ie. paying higher prices for bulk/unfinished vino)…or both. In either case, the value proposition shifts from “massive bargain hunting” (and associated acceptance of a few home runs coupled with a few “meh”, as per early dN days) to now more of a choiceful selection across various options. Honestly, methinks it will backfire in dN’s face…with the glut of vino out there, they are squandering their branding and competitive advantage. I know I’m buying far less than I used to…
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