Zinfandel pricing vs. other varietals

[Mel_Knox]

I am not sure how to express things sometimes, but here we have circular logic. We are told that certain varieties are ‘noble’ eg cabernet, merlot, chardonnay, pinot noir whereas other varieties are for ‘everyday drinking’, like zinfandel and barbera. So, people will pay more for Pinot Noir and BX varieties than for Zinfandel. How many zins sell for more than $50 a bottle?? Not a lot.

This translates to:
1/lower production values on zinfandel, barbera, etc…gotta keep the COGS down
2/everyone planting ‘noble’ varieties because they can get more for the grapes

One esteemed producer told me he thinks that in Napa and Sonoma, if you want to make great zin, you will have to own the vineyard. All the good zin is basically booked up and nobody is planting more. This is not say there aren t terrific vineyards in the Sierra Foothills,Lodi, Mendocino county, etc.

A question that keeps haunting me is this: cabernets are now being made in a manner completely different from the way they were 25 years ago: riper fruit, better integrated and softer tannins…will these wines age the way those legends of the '60s and '70s did?? Is there a reason to age them more than ten years?? What will they develop into?? So many cabs are fruity like zins…no more weedy stemmy herbaceousness…no more hard tannins that obliged you to age the wine.

[Morgan_Twain-Peterson]

For what it is worth, I think pricing on Zinfandel and other varieties that come from old, head-trained vines are going to become more expensive by sheer necessity. As labor costs continue to rocket upwards (we are up almost 60% in five years at Bedrock and that is similar to most people I talk with) more and more new vineyard installations are allowing for automation- be it in Sonoma, Napa or Lodi. Old vineyards, particularly those in places like Lodi where tonnage prices are lower, are quickly becoming non-economic and many are on the verge of being pulled out and some already have been. Head-trained vines comes with a ton of viticultural advantages when growing large-clustered, generally Mediterranean varieties, but labor inputs are not one of them. Essentially nothing can be automated, meaning pruning, shoot-thinning, leafing, green drop, secondary drop, picking, etc… are all done by hand. We have done our best to minimize this impact on the finished bottled price, and we are fortunate to sell so much of our wine direct which helps, but at some point margins begin to get effected to a point that prices will be forced upward. Looking at the Grape Crush Report for this year, the average price of Zin in Sonoma County crested 3k a ton for the first time ever after being around $2500-$2700 for most of the last five years.

As another example, when we took over Bedrock in 2004 the fruit from the old vine was selling for $2600/ton. We now charge between $3500 and $4000/ton and our margins are essentially the same. I fully expect to be charging clients in the mid $4000s within the next few years if cost trajectories continue their current rate. I am sure that wineries will have to adjust their bottle prices to accommodate this, just as we have had to do when certain vineyards become much more expensive. Granted, the farming is better than it was before we bought the ranch, and we farm it to OMRI/Organic specs which requires even more labor (no herbicide so manual shoveling or weed control), but the vineyard as an entity (not the winery) is a break-even business.

That said, I still think getting a bottle of wine from 100+ year old vines, in many cases a blend of varieties totally unique to California, is well worth it, even if the price is $50 rather than $35. Of course, it is in my best interest to think this!

[Cris_Whetstone]

@Scott Fitzgerald

Hey mods, please shut down this thread. We don’t need all this crazy talk getting out into the general public. Everyone just needs to move on along back to the Burgundy, Bordeaux, and Cabernet threads sprinkled throughout this forum. I hear there are some great New Zealand and South African gems out there if you’re interested in well rated value wines.

Indeed. No need for talk about 3rd rate grapes like Zin. All it makes are jammy fruit bombs with no character.

Nothing to see here. Move along.

[Barry_IncaRoads_Sheck]

@Morgan Twain-Peterson

For what it is worth, I think pricing on Zinfandel and other varieties that come from old, head-trained vines are going to become more expensive by sheer necessity. As labor costs continue to rocket upwards (we are up almost 60% in five years at Bedrock and that is similar to most people I talk with) more and more new vineyard installations are allowing for automation- be it in Sonoma, Napa or Lodi. Old vineyards, particularly those in places like Lodi where tonnage prices are lower, are quickly becoming non-economic and many are on the verge of being pulled out and some already have been. Head-trained vines comes with a ton of viticultural advantages when growing large-clustered, generally Mediterranean varieties, but labor inputs are not one of them. Essentially nothing can be automated, meaning pruning, shoot-thinning, leafing, green drop, secondary drop, picking, etc… are all done by hand. We have done our best to minimize this impact on the finished bottled price, and we are fortunate to sell so much of our wine direct which helps, but at some point margins begin to get effected to a point that prices will be forced upward. Looking at the Grape Crush Report for this year, the average price of Zin in Sonoma County crested 3k a ton for the first time ever after being around $2500-$2700 for most of the last five years.

As another example, when we took over Bedrock in 2004 the fruit from the old vine was selling for $2600/ton. We now charge between $3500 and $4000/ton and our margins are essentially the same. I fully expect to be charging clients in the mid $4000s within the next few years if cost trajectories continue their current rate. I am sure that wineries will have to adjust their bottle prices to accommodate this, just as we have had to do when certain vineyards become much more expensive. Granted, the farming is better than it was before we bought the ranch, and we farm it to OMRI/Organic specs which requires even more labor (no herbicide so manual shoveling or weed control), but the vineyard as an entity (not the winery) is a break-even business.

That said, I still think getting a bottle of wine from 100+ year old vines, in many cases a blend of varieties totally unique to California, is well worth it, even if the price is $50 rather than $35. Of course, it is in my best interest to think this!

Thanks for weighing in, Morgan! Very informative.

The 2012 Bedrock Heritage I had recently? Life altering.

[Cris_Whetstone]

@Mel Knox

I am not sure how to express things sometimes, but here we have circular logic. We are told that certain varieties are ‘noble’ eg cabernet, merlot, chardonnay, pinot noir whereas other varieties are for ‘everyday drinking’, like zinfandel and barbera. So, people will pay more for Pinot Noir and BX varieties than for Zinfandel. How many zins sell for more than $50 a bottle?? Not a lot.

This translates to:
1/lower production values on zinfandel, barbera, etc…gotta keep the COGS down
2/everyone planting ‘noble’ varieties because they can get more for the grapes

One esteemed producer told me he thinks that in Napa and Sonoma, if you want to make great zin, you will have to own the vineyard. All the good zin is basically booked up and nobody is planting more. This is not say there aren t terrific vineyards in the Sierra Foothills,Lodi, Mendocino county, etc.

I think it’s been that way for some time now. It’s a shame because I don’t really think California by and large has figured out what variety works best in all locations. Not that it’s a goal or something that could really happen in the broadest of terms. But we’ve already settled into variety to region because of what sells and not what was figured out to be the best there in most cases. With vineyard properties skyrocketing in value we are stuck with what is in most cases.

@Mel Knox

A question that keeps haunting me is this: cabernets are now being made in a manner completely different from the way they were 25 years ago: riper fruit, better integrated and softer tannins…will these wines age the way those legends of the '60s and '70s did?? Is there a reason to age them more than ten years?? What will they develop into?? So many cabs are fruity like zins…no more weedy stemmy herbaceousness…no more hard tannins that obliged you to age the wine.

Of course they won’t develop the same. No one buying those wines wants to hear that though.

[Mel_Knox]

Barry, You have made me afraid to drink Morgan’s wine. I am pretty old and don t know if I can take any more life altering.

Somebody asked about international sales and I do know from having helped Ridge with their work in the UK that they sell wine all over the planet. I represented Nalle and despite excellent representation, got nowhere so I quit. People did not understand that Nalle Zin could sell for the same price as Saintsbury, even though production costs were the same, and the average age of the vineyards Doug Nalle used was around 75.

But after I stopped repping Nalle, Paul Henderson of Gidleigh Park said, Hey, you were right about those Nalle wines…can I get some more?? Mind you, this was over 20 years ago.

[Richard_Albert]

If they replanted those low production, labor intensive, mixed varietal vineyards over to Pinot Noir, the growers could cash in on its popularity.
The market speaks and Zins on the East Coast Zins are a tough sell in those European wine dominated markets; they know and speak from around those wallet pockets. As proof, I brought a Martinelli Jackass Zin into an NYC restaurant and the somm said “best served with the cheese course”, so there you have it from the mouth of a pro, Zins are just too limiting. Yank it, if you will.

[Morgan_Twain-Peterson]

@Mel Knox

Barry, You have made me afraid to drink Morgan’s wine. I am pretty old and don t know if I can take any more life altering.

But they are aged in the finest Taransaud barrels!

[Curtis_Chen]

Zinfandel is awesome. I was recently quoted $390 for a case of 2015 Ridge Geyserville and I’m sure others got even better deals, which is awesome for a wine that’s so damn good from such an outstanding producer. Plus, you can age those puppies. Hard to find that value elsewhere.

Oh, and to Mel and Cris’ point, that’s why I don’t buy a lot of young Napa. Don’t really see the point, especially at the price. It’s unrelated, but buy champagne instead.

[Brian_Tuite]

@Richard Albert

If they replanted those low production, labor intensive, mixed varietal vineyards over to Pinot Noir, the growers could cash in on its popularity.
The market speaks and Zins on the East Coast Zins are a tough sell in those European wine dominated markets; they know and speak from around those wallet pockets. As proof, I brought a Martinelli Jackass Zin into an NYC restaurant and the somm said “best served with the cheese course”, so there you have it from the mouth of a pro, Zins are just too limiting. Yank it, if you will.

Martinelli Jackass, @ 16%abv IS best served as a dessert. Not all Zinfandel is created equal, goes for wines from all grape varieties.

[Richard_Albert]

Tongue in cheek, following suite.

[Sean_Devaney]

@Cris Whetstone

@Scott Fitzgerald

Hey mods, please shut down this thread. We don’t need all this crazy talk getting out into the general public. Everyone just needs to move on along back to the Burgundy, Bordeaux, and Cabernet threads sprinkled throughout this forum. I hear there are some great New Zealand and South African gems out there if you’re interested in well rated value wines.

Indeed. No need for talk about 3rd rate grapes like Zin. All it makes are jammy fruit bombs with no character.

Nothing to see here. Move along.

Zinfandel makes a crappy wine so yeah just move on to your Bordeaux, Burgundy, ect.

[Mel_Knox]

Morgan,
No wonder they are so mind altering!

But don’t get me started…time for dinner.

[John_Morris]

@Mel Knox

A question that keeps haunting me is this: cabernets are now being made in a manner completely different from the way they were 25 years ago: riper fruit, better integrated and softer tannins…will these wines age the way those legends of the '60s and '70s did?? Is there a reason to age them more than ten years?? What will they develop into?? **So many cabs are fruity like zins…**no more weedy stemmy herbaceousness…no more hard tannins that obliged you to age the wine.

That may be the answer to the original question. People who want big, unctuous, slug-em-back, buckets-of-fruit, blackberry/raspberry, soft-tannined wines* for $100 are finding that in cabernet these days. It’s hard for $35 zin to compete with $100 cabernet that tastes the same.

• Up to this point, this is a category I love.

[Rich_Brown]

@Chris Seiber

@Drew Goin

I have to point out that nobody posted a thread this go-round for the Limerick Lane release.

I wonder if the pricing has been a factor, considering how much love the winery has received in the past here…

I will say that (a) I have become smitten by their wines but (b) at their high prices combined with $40 minimum shipping to Orange County, I just couldn’t click “order.” Good chance I’ll regret it, though.

Same here. I really like the wines but I had to pass. Just can’t justify the price and shipping compared to my other favorite zin producers. Bummer for sure.

[Karl_K]

John you are funny.

[GregT]

With a few exceptions, one can nab top flight Zinfandels at around the $50/bottle range. Compare this with Cab Sauv, Pinot and Rhône types, where $100+ bottles for the “good stuff” has become the norm.

So there’s a lot of CA Mourvedre that sells for over $100/bottle? Or Carignan? Or even Syrah?

The original post is based on US wines. There are a few Syrah producers like Alban and Saxum and SQN who can sell their wines for a lot of money because they got high scores from critics who once mattered, but there’s a lot of Syrah produced, and it’s quite good, and the average prices are not that high.

In the US, people pay for Cab-based wines, and today they’re willing to pay for Pinot Noir too. If you have land, you plant one of those.

The price of a bottle is marginally related to the cost of production, and the cost of the grapes is a factor in the cost of production. So you can charge more for a Cab than you can for something else, and to some extent you can justify it based on costs.

But there’s also a much bigger factor, which is the premium people are willing to pay for a wine that’s made largely from Cab and Pinot Noir as opposed to say, Freisa or Zinfandel. And nobody planted Zinfandel in France in the 1800s as far as we know, so that grape will never be respected in the same way that the French grapes are because the entire US wine industry for decades was based on benchmarking against French wines.

Outside of the US, people seem happier paying high prices for their own grapes. Or maybe it’s Americans who are buying all those - I don’t know.

[larry_schaffer]

@GregT

With a few exceptions, one can nab top flight Zinfandels at around the $50/bottle range. Compare this with Cab Sauv, Pinot and Rhône types, where $100+ bottles for the “good stuff” has become the norm.

So there’s a lot of CA Mourvedre that sells for over $100/bottle? Or Carignan? Or even Syrah?

The original post is based on US wines. There are a few Syrah producers like Alban and Saxum and SQN who can sell their wines for a lot of money because they got high scores from critics who once mattered, but there’s a lot of Syrah produced, and it’s quite good, and the average prices are not that high.

In the US, people pay for Cab-based wines, and today they’re willing to pay for Pinot Noir too. If you have land, you plant one of those.

The price of a bottle is marginally related to the cost of production, and the cost of the grapes is a factor in the cost of production. So you can charge more for a Cab than you can for something else, and to some extent you can justify it based on costs.

But there’s also a much bigger factor, which is the premium people are willing to pay for a wine that’s made largely from Cab and Pinot Noir as opposed to say, Freisa or Zinfandel. And nobody planted Zinfandel in France in the 1800s as far as we know, so that grape will never be respected in the same way that the French grapes are because the entire US wine industry for decades was based on benchmarking against French wines.

Outside of the US, people seem happier paying high prices for their own grapes. Or maybe it’s Americans who are buying all those - I don’t know.

Spot on, my friend - spot on.

There are loads of fantastic wines that offer consumers just as much ‘bang for their buck’ as some of the more well known cab and pinot wines out there, and this has always been the case.

I remember when Alban received his first 100 point score and raised his prices over $100 - and the backlash he received . . . even though his wines were most likely still the least expensive ‘100 pt.’ domestic wine at the time. Spending that much for a domestic syrah? Are you crazy?!?!?

Pricing is funny - I’ve had folks come into my tasting room and literally tell me that if I charged twice as much for my wines, they’d purchase a lot more . . .

The pricing of old vine zinfandel will have to go up in cost as per Morgan’s post - and that is not a bad thing if (a) you dig the wines and (b) you want to continue purchasing them. And I’m hopeful that this is the case - the alternative is more old vine vineyards being pulled out and replaced with more houses, etc.

Cheers.

[Bryan_Price]

Hopped on WineBid to see if I could pick up a bottle to try. Granted, my experience with the variety is limited but I don’t see any steals. Someone please correct me if I’m wrong. I see a lot of Ridge and Turley, but at a $30 or $35 bottle price that is $39 and $45 after the 17% premium, tax and shipping. I do see a 2012 Jackass going for $65, who’s buying?!!!

Thread drift: how does Ridge put out such a high volume, made available everywhere, has reasonable pricing, and is still well respected by all us wine snobs? I can’t name another producer like that.

[Michael_Martin]

@Bryan Price

Hopped on WineBid to see if I could pick up a bottle to try. Granted, my experience with the variety is limited but I don’t see any steals. Someone please correct me if I’m wrong. I see a lot of Ridge and Turley, but at a $30 or $35 bottle price that is $39 and $45 after the 17% premium, tax and shipping. I do see a 2012 Jackass going for $65, who’s buying?!!!

Thread drift: how does Ridge put out such a high volume, made available everywhere, has reasonable pricing, and is still well respected by all us wine snobs? I can’t name another producer like that.

I don’t like Ridge or Turley. So there’s another data point.