In gambling, yes, but wine purchasing for enjoyment? Nope.
Although there is the one little sticky aspect of Winebid not refunding for bad bottles, so there is a small element of a gamble I guess.
If you don’t feel like you’re winning, you shouldn’t be bidding.
I knew you looked familiar Mike. Pretty sure we’re part of the same Wine sniping support group
I have more wine than I need for the rest of my life. As I explained to one of my sons last week when he asked me if I had an “extra” bottle of wine to give him because he wanted to give it to someone else, each marginal bottle is “extra” and “Just remember that you’re not giving away my wine as a gift, you’re just giving away a part of your inheritance.”
I bid a bottom fisher price for a wine I would like to have in my arsenal when I decide what wine I want to drink on any given night. If you are willing to pay more than me, that’s fine. I don’t think that Mike wins 92 out of 100. He just saves me a lot of money 92 times out of 100.
BUT, there’s that one guy who keeps sniping me on bids I place to set up flights for Leo’s Blind Tasting Group and if I ever find out who it is, I will cut out his heart with a rusty old box knife that has been sitting in my basement for 30+ years.
I completely disagree with this, as I absolutely feel like every auction is somewhat of a ‘contest’, and that I’m competing with everyone else for the prize that we all really want…which in this case just happens to be a bottle of wine.
But then again I’m just a very competitive person by nature.
For continuity. I do this a lot, as I want to tag onto threads that may have a running discussion over time about a wine, or a TN. Example…not everyone on this forum uses Cellartracker so the aspect of time continuity is missing for them. So, a TN that may have several pings on it from different people at least offers some continuity for keeping the discussion and impact going.
I think the OP is relatively new and hasn’t participated in some of the threads he discovered. So rather than start anew he revives them. Doesn’t bother me (as long as he includes meaningful scores with his comments).
If you’re like Jay and have an amount you’re willing to pay, you never bid against yourself or pay too much.
Sometimes putting in an early bid secures it, sometimes not. For everything you bid on, know or write down the max you are willing to pay. Whether sniping or not, don’t go over that.
I have gone back and forth early because if I’m willing to pay $100 I would be happier to get it for $60. As long as the other bidders drop out at 60, 70, or 80, I’m happy. If they get caught up in competition and go over my amount, they can have it. People bid things up to ridiculous heights when they could very often just buy the wine somewhere for less. Or they do as Wes said and buy mixed lots of stuff they don’t really want to get the bottles they do want.
I toss in early bids for the price I am hoping for so I don’t forget to bid at the end.
If I know I can be available when the auction closes, I know I can win paying less by not bidding until the last minute and inciting the ego-driven bidding up process. This is true of both WineBid and K&L type online auctions but not many others, and not of live auctions. Unless few people want the wine at the opening price, the internet pre-bidders at HDH and other internet-plus-live auctions rarely win the lot.
Say what you will about putting in an early bid with your eventual max and hoping no one tops it - it makes sense but belies everything we know and have experienced about bidding behavior.
Some folks bid early and low as a place saver of sorts. Sure. Don’t expect it to save you money.
I never bid above my top price I put in my early bid. Ever. Same with live auctions. Works great for me.
I win a surprising number of auctions with one bid and done. I hate trying to time an auction.
If you are bidding on bottles that other folks don’t want or whose reserve price is more than folks want to pay, you will win those auctions on your first bid.
If you are bidding on wine that engenders competition, you will lose every time.
I was referring to Dutch auction lots, so not mixed, if I’m guessing what you’re talking about correctly.
But, you don’t know who’s going to show up. On winebid, which is what we’re talking about, say you don’t bother getting the opening bid in on a multi-bottle lot, and you come in at the end and successfully snipe it for one increment higher, you could be paying a lot more. Say, a 5 bottle lot with a $5 increment, that’s about $30. If the other person, who bid on the lot after you could’ve, put in an autobid for the amount you were willing to pay, you lose. If you did have an auto bid at the same amount they’re willing to pay, you win. Sure, it’s same-same if no one else would bid or if they’d pay more than you’re willing to. But, having a bid showing may deter others from triggering a marginal autobid.
Some wines will attract multiple bidders one week and none another.
It’s honestly shocking to me the bid strategy that so many people seem to take, as it completely discounts human nature.
But the last thing i want to do is to try and change your minds, as I’m perfectly happy with the % of bids that I currently win at auction.
Carry on please 
It’s all game theory.
It really is not. Game theory implies modeling the behavior of intelligent and rational participants. It discounts or fails to address the nonrational, impulsive behavior that underlies much of real-world decision-making.
As a good friend of mine told me, “It’s nearly impossible to put a price on the joy one experiences when sniping a bottle.”
What’s rational to one man is unrational for the other.
What’s rational to one man is unrational for the other.
Exactly. Because what’s important to one man is unimportant to another.
For a number of the people who posted, it’s just not that important. They’ll put in an offhand bid and if they win or lose, they’re not really emotionally invested all that much, so there’s no planning, no monitoring, no exhilaration or disappointment. For a number of others, it’s a bigger deal.
But the first group isn’t really competing, at least not to the degree that they’d argue over it. And that’s the idea of putting in an early bid. The snipers are the ones who care more.
Both are quite rational. If I don’t care, I’ll put in a bid and find out the result when they send me an e-mail. If I care, I’ll watch the pricing and if it’s still in my range at the last minute, I’ll throw in my bid.
That’s why those studies are somewhat flawed - they assume “rational” behavior is based on everyone having the same concern with the outcome.
That was a really good post. In my mind, that sums it up pretty well.