Hello everyone,
Just a slightly cynical word on Bordeaux vintages. With 2008 getting rather high reviews across the board, after an overpriced 2007, we may be on the verge of another vintage of the century, following 2005, which followed 2000. On the one hand, this is good news for consumers, because the wines should be of very high quality should the weather continue to cooperate.
On the other, how high can the points go? I mean, 2008, a vintage with far from perfect weather (August), was super highly rated by the most powerful American wine critic… What will the numbers be like for 2009? Some people are murmering that ‘this could be even better than 2005.’ And I thought a few years ago that 2000 was just so utterly fantastic. Well, 2000 is a very fine vintage across the board. But 2005 has more of everything: tannin, alcohol, ripeness. It is also a very fine vintage. But with a super 2009 looming, I wonder if we may need to go beyond the 100 point scale to 120? 150? Or does it mean now that vintages matter far less? Anyway, just some random tongue in cheek thoughts on what seems to be a run of ‘vintages of the century’… and what that could also mean pricewise. Nothing too serious, perhaps I am making a mountain out of a molehill, and that all this is on balance good news.
Somewhere between global warming, competition, greed, weather & technology, I think the overall quality of wine has risen over the past 30 (just throwing out a number) years. The problem, like you say, where does this end? One very prominent American critic, has so many scores in the very high 90’s that they hardly move the needle anymore. While qualitatively, these wines may be X% ‘better’ than they were when he started, somehow justifying the astronomical scores, where does he go now?
As bizare as it sounds, a string of solid vintages does serious damage to the Bordeaux pricing model. The run up in eP pricing for 05 was predicated by this sense of a finite supply of a legendary vintage. In actuality, anyone who put off buying any of the vintage’s wines on first tranche, save a few select wines such as HB/Troplong/CSM, are still able to find these wines at relatively low costs, nominally (factoring in ROI). None of them are out of the market. Only a select dozen or so are appreciably more expensive.
With 08 coming out relatively low and not having sold out or budged in price (save a small bump for PC and of course Lafite/Latour), there will be even more pressure on the Bordelais to price low again in 09 and not only from the consumers (from fretfully capital-deprived negociants). Who would pay 1.5x for 09 Lafite when 08 Lafite is, as Bob put it, “one of the most profound young wines…” As Panos alluded to earlier, will 09 Lafite be, the most porofound wine ?
The smoke and mirrors that the chateaus have been playing with, in regards to distribution quantities is really unveiling. There are oceans of great wines from 05,06,08 and 09 that will be floating around. Price step just got squashed.
The only weapons to combat this, that the Bordelais have are drastically reduced yeilds and a complete overhaul of the distribution system, which allows them to charge more ex-chat and have the pain not felt in 3 doses by the consumer.
Folks, you just don’t get it. After 2000, all vintages of the century aren’t just vintages of the century, they’re vintages of the millenium. Think how lucky you are to be purchasing wines that are part of the vintage of the millenium (until the next one comes along)! When you were a poor schnoock in the 1990s, all you got was vintage of the century. Now you get ten times as good!
Vintages of the millenium. Good one, Claude! Faryan may have raised an interesting point about prices. I bought just under 2 cases of Bordeaux 08 en primeur: 6 bottles of Latour, 3 of Mouton, 3 Ducru Beaucaillou, 6 Figeac and 4 Lafleur Petrus. If we do keep getting nice vintages, I do indeed wonder if the prices are going to level off - which would be nice for drinkers, less nice for investors - or whether we will indeed see a different model for selling the wines. Certain estates are closer to their markets than others, especially chateau owners who also own a negociant business. And certain estates of course will always fetch high prices, those top mythical chateaux from Petrus to Latour. As for the scores for another super Lafite in 2009, who knows? As Daniel wrote, perhaps 98-100+++++.
My guess is that there will be a feeding frenzy next year for 2009s – if they turn out as good as people are hoping. In such case, I doubt the prices will moderate. However, when the feeding frenzy begins, I don’t know if I would want to be a retailing, wholesaler, etc., with 2006s, 2007s or 2008s to sell. That is where you probably will find bargains, close-outs, etc. Likely the same will occur in Burgundy where the only thing I have against the 2006s are the prices.
Yup, that about sums it up for me. Lost interest in 05. I’ll drink my cellar down and call it a day. Perhaps the markets in Asia can save the Bordelais, I know I will not.
Bob, you and I have discussed before that the virtue of buying big name bordeaux diminishes as we become more, um, mature. But I see nothing but good news in the continued stream of good vintages in bordeaux. For me, at this point in my life, more good wine across the board means pricing pressure on the bordelais and – most importantly – a greater number of “fringe,” new, or over-achieving smaller producer I can buy for earlier consumption. I am completely done with buying any quantity of the big boys (and I never was much of a player there) but if the La Tour Carnets, Vieille Cures, and Clos Manous of the world continue to multiply, or if new owners take old properties to new heights (e.g., Pontet Canet), I will have no end of excellent buying opportunities while I bottom fish.
And I’ll be able to drink most of them form a nice stem rather than through an IV bag.
I thnk there is no price pressure on the Bordelais because the prices are already so high. When you double prices then take a 20% cut, you’re still making a lot more money than before. Prices today are probably 10 times what they were when the 1996 vintage was released. There is no relief in sight.
Parker will be ho hum on 2009, because everyone else will be so high on it (much like 2005…no 100 point scores…hmmm). He will slam home to us that 2008 will be the vintage to buy (just like he is doing with 2007 CDP right now)…just wait and see…
I am assuming harvest for 2009 goes as planned, of course.
Parker ain’t no sheep…look at his wife’s review of Sierra Carche…everyone else hates that wine…
Hi Neal, nice to see you here! From one Bordeaux loving geek to another, I must agree with your logic… Now, what Howard said about 2009 could be worrisome, especially for those thinking about investing in high end estates in 2008, for example. Although, I am not sure that the Latours, Haut Brions, Lafites and Moutons will actually lose value, even if the 2009 vintage is vintage of the century, millenium or of all time, material, deserving 100++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ scores. In any case, I have one friend with extra money and advised him to buy lots of first growths before the Parker scores came out on those 08s, so for his sake, I hope they do appreciate over time, lol… Anyway, as for mid range bottles, I would agree with you, this is likely good news and should exert downward price pressure for these bottles and make you and me and other Bordeauxphiles rather happy.
For people that buy wine to drink, I don’t think what I said is “worrisome” – I think more good vintages is good news, as you said. For people who drink their Bordeaux by looking at the current price tags or Parker scores, well, I guess I don’t really care.
By the way, Parker has long gone against the crowd in rating Bordeauxs. He said 1986 was a better vintage than 1985 and 1990 was a better vintage than 1989 when prices were going the opposite way. Based on his advice, I got some good 1986s and 1990s are pretty good prices.
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