Just in time for the '10 barrel scores!!
If you are one of the types who sees financial analysis of Bordeaux as perhaps uncouth, this may not be the thread for you. This is for us who must make decisions based upon opportunity costs and time-value of our money. Five basic tennants about buying the wine and getting the most out of it.
Maxim no. 1: Barrel sample scores as an indicator of individual plays are pure bullshit. They inexorably reinforce a feedback loop about the hierarchy of Bordeaux as they are almost always done non-blind. You may get a handful of scores that buck the trend by one, maybe two standard deviations every vintage, but not enough to steer the supertanker. Anyone who tastes mature claret across a vintage knows the hierarchy never pans out in the glass come year 20. The sleepers and unheralded louts often make a compelling argument for why the hierarchy is bullshit. If you are content gazing into your Latour lion as he extolls the virtue of your 600 dollar purchase, don’t forget that he got smoked by Pichon Baron in 19xx* at 25% the price.
Maxim no. 1(b): Anyone who drinks enough old Bordeaux and has a palate capable of forming his/her own judgments with consistency knows that the progression of a barrel sample is something that is extremely difficult to prognosticate on an aggregate of 100-200 top chateau, in a blind setting. If you want to rate Lafite high because it is Lafite and you have drank splendid examples of old Lafite for your life and the Barons de Rothschild throw the most lavish parties by the water lillies at the Lafite pond, then say that. Don’t attempt to level the playing field as an evaluation of what’s being spitooned; that is a charade, the great charade of Bordeaux.
Kudos to some new critics that increasingly buck the trend, calling barrel scores based upon how they see it and kudos to organizations such as GJE for challenging the establishment. First in my mind would be Neal Martin. I hope for more of this and more blind peer tastings.
Maxim no. 2: Futures are only a lucrative investment in superlative vintages and distressed situations**; preferably both. Otherwise, you are tying up your capital with the hope of securing perfect provenance, something that can be achieved with less time-loss of investment. I’m a huge proponent of proper provenance but a 2 year unsecured downpayment? F that noise. Trust me, I learned the hardway. If you are financially saavy with your money, you know this is a fools errand.
Further, there have been several watermark vintages which propel the myth about futures and the splendor it provides: 82, 89, 96 and 00 are those that most readily come to mind. There is a confluence of idiosyncratic reasons behind the profitability of investing in these vintages and they have indeed performed over time. Remember, just beacuse 82 Pichon Lalande skyrocketed in price doesn’t mean 90 Lalande did. You have to take the uptake over an aggreagate of wines, rather that honing in on the dramatic winners. Further, there have been equal amount of stinker investment vintages such as 83,91,94,99 and 06. They all seem dubious now, but I guarantee the hype machine made compelling arguments about the wines at the time (e.g. 99!). Jury is out as to “all-in” profitability of 05,09 and the impending ’10, the three mega-vintages still in earshot. Caveat emptor!
Maxim no. 3: Unlike Burgundy, Bordeaux wines are ubiquitous. You will never miss out as a result of not buying early. Any bottle/case/jeroboam will inexorably fall back onto the market. This is the reality of (a) how much Bordeaux is flipped and (b) the sheer production volume of the wines, regardless of heightened global demand. I got calls from merchants about 09 Bordeaux futures and their constricted case quantities as a result of the Asian scrouge crippling their supplies, telling me to lock in my purchases before the dragon gobbled it all up and breathed the cassis tinged fire in my face! Guess what? The overpriced*** stuff is still readily available at or near release price. Glad I didn’t eat that worm!
Maxim no. 4: The only way you will get (drinking) value out of your investment is to perform your own dilligence rather than buying on critical recommendations. That means doing verticals and horizontals in tasting/dinner and blind/non-blind formats. Consistently challenge your palate. Challenge the pretty Mouton paintings and ask why Grand Puy Lacoste is multiples less enjoyable simply due to the price. You may adore Haut Brion but ask why Haut Bailly offers at a fraction. You may think Petrus is god’s elixir, but see how it fairs against VCC, Trotanoy and Valandraud blind.
That is not to say that Parker and the like do not offer evaluative research of any merit. They do and I do read their work to get an idea of how the vintage characteristics have made a gestalt impact on the wines. However, if you buy on Parker points alone, you are adhereing to the game and reinforcing the misguided view that a single palate can speak many tongues. If you are content with that, then you either have very similar tasting preferences, or you are training yourself to go with the perceived normative. While the second is the easy path to take, it is the less rewarding and the more onerous in terms of cost.
Maxim no. 5: pricing is decoupling from historical norms. Many make an argument that nouveau-wealth interested in fine wine are not as aware of historical pricing norms of Bordeaux and are willing to plonk down the serious cash for the best claret. I call bullshit! There is a degree of opacity with regard to wine quality and price, but when the dust settles (can take years to decades) most of the true juice comes through more expensive for a reason. Sure, labels will sell for princely sums, but fools are born every day. Don’t be one! Further, when you do your own digging, you find those gems that got buried in the hype manure. This is where you find value in drinking great wine!!
When it takes such a long time to reach meaningful evaluative maturity for a luxury good such as Big Bordeaux, this elasticity phenomenon is to be expected. New breed drinkers who do not perform their own dilligence will often fall into the herd of normative thought. To do otherwise would be contrary to human psychology (in effect, reprimanding their own frivolous purchasing, something most humans tend not to do). Tack that on to the percentage of purchasers who lack degustatorial precision (blokes such as myself) and you have a connondrum. Don’t get swept away in a rising tide. Always look for the fundamentals when making a judgement of whether or not that 400 dollar bottle of barrel juice is worth its weight.
Now if you want to call bullshit on my banter, your white knight likely resides in the ability to sell any lucrative Bordeaux that may not tickle your tongue, at a princely profit. While this may be true, be ever cognizant of the cost of transaction with illiquid, regulated assets**** such as wine.
Cheers!
*do your own research ![]()
** e.g. 2001 post 9/11 and 2008 post financial disaster
***overpriced in the sense that it has not escalated in value, hence not worthy of an investment.
****I can speak for the U.S. versus In Bond investments in England