It’s complicated and a short speculative answer isn’t going to do you much good. Here are some of the specifics on producers that I’ve followed for the last 7 or 8 auctions:
Prum - some producers are offering the “best” barrel of a specific wine produced in a given year. So Prum Spatlese for example is typically the barrel of wehlener sonnenuhr that Katharina prefers over the others and thinks auction-worthy for some reason. It’s her judgment you’d have to ask her if she things that means “better”. Some years it’s leaner than the non-auction. Some (most?) years it’s sweeter. You could buy 3 of each of her wines from the vintage, including the auction wines, for a reasonable price. If you are price sensitive along the lines of the difference in amounts between auction and non-auction, it’s a big jump. I’ve found that some of the Prum auction wines show as incredibly special, as do some of the non-auction wines, and many are difficult to evaluate young and almost all turn out well. To make it more complicated, sometimes Prum offers wines for which there is no regular version like an LGK or TBA. So they can’t be better or worse than the regular version. They have to stand on their own as incredible, remarkable, small production world class wines of unmatched character that anyone can have regardless of allocation if they are willing to bid. Seems ok, right?
Egon - the Kabi is old vines. How old? I have no idea. How not old are the non-auction wines? No idea. As the young vines become older does their production go into auction wine such that the auction wine will eventually be the larger production, say in 2059? No idea. But the wine is typically very good. I found it a little thin in 2022 but in most years it’s better for me. Anyway, the auction wine comes from the same parcel every year, right? So a different theory than Prum. Egon also brings other wines to auction. Those might be a barrel selection. They are worth every penny if you have enough pennies. On a dollar per dollar basis, the Egon sweet wines crush your average, oxidized grand cru white burg. Magical.
Grunhaus - I have it on good authority that the kabi is a barrel selection. But they kind of know where the grapes that make up that barrel will come from because it’s similar every year. So a cross between Prum theory and Egon theory! In most years the auction kabi is leaner than the non-auction in most recent years but not ‘22 I think. And then they will barrel auslese separately if the character demands it. And some may come to auction. ‘18 is a good vintage to compare a non-auction and auction numbered auslese as 6 have been released and there are at least 3 to come and all are very good. Sometimes there is an eiswein or TBA at auction. They are likely very good to great. The wines for auction are chosen carefully and the house is on a roll.
Zilliken- I’ve found the auction auslese to be deeply flawed for the past two years. Is it better than the non-auction? Let’s hope not.
Fritz Haag - I’m not sure how he distinguishes auction from non-auction - parcel vs barrel. I will ask rather than speculate. I think the non-auction kabi may be under screw cap. The auction is under cork. “Better” here is probably in the eye of the beholder. For the past three vintages the wines have been impressive both within and without the auction.
Lauer - in ‘22 the best wine is a non-auction wine and I think that will be the case in a lot of years given what he’s doing with lambertskirch (although he could have course bring it to auction). The non-auction kabi is typically leaner than the non-auction, particularly so in ‘22. The 23/24 strike me as leaner than non-auction counterparts but what do I know. Did he make anything higher than auslese and bring it to auction? If so, it’s likely profound. Anyway, his auction kabi and spat is inexpensive enough that it probably falls out of the general conversation of whether the auction is worth the extra tariff. The auction wines are affordable.
Schloss-Lieser - all doctor spat is an auction wine. No non-auction version. So no counterpart to compare. It’s great. I don’t know that an auction kabi from domprobst is his best kabi. It’s good, but some years there is a doctor non-auction kabi and he makes lots of wine, most of it very good. Some years he brings a wehlener auslese or LGK to auction and those for me are “can’t miss” but you have to like the style, which can be richer and more baroque then the current trend.
That’s what comes off the top of my head.
Alex
. It’s easy to rate wine higher when you see auction sticker on it but for my preferences for example Lauer, Schloss Lieser, Othegraven & Grünhaus has so solid regular kabinett lineups that I have no need to pay extra for auction wines.