With the incoming administration expect tariffs on European wines to rise. Will this start a round of pre-inaugural panic buying? I have already received at least one email offer stating “No Tariffs”!
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It bankrupted my wine import business last go around. I expect the gourmet side will be really bad too so… My guess to your question is yes. But there could be a flip to that too. Hold on to inventory that is likely to increase in value and age well…
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I have seen some chatter about 10% universal tariff, but nothing on wine explicitly. The 2019 tariff was a trade dispute over Airbus, which is over now.
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In the other thread on this same topic, Dan K mentioned that the settlement of the Airbus controversy may have included an agreement that the US would not impose any new tariffs on European wine before July 2026.
He repeatedly said 20% on everything.
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He says a lot of things.
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I sorely doubt any prior agreement is going to remain viable.
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and certain people are Super Awesome about respecting agreements and other things of the sort …
I guess the question would be what that prior agreement says and whether it would be enforceable if someone decided they wanted to back out. Not my area, I don’t know, but having an existing agreement seems better than not having it, FWIW.
Agree. Something isn’t worse than Nothing, but it might not be better. Regardless, this issue is located somewhere on page twelve hundred on my list of Current Concerns.
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Agreed. I also don’t expect a ‘reasonable’ tariff will be assessed but something a bit more eye popping.
I am basically out of wine collecting with an overflowing cellar and at retirement age, but even if that wasn’t the case, I personally would not panic buy. I would probably end up buying less of my preferred European wines, without increasing American wine consumption.
I am largely a consumer of European wines. Historically price has played a role in that as I have found Euro wines a better value vs US. I’ve mostly lived outside the US since 2019 and when I returned this year I noticed the price gap between Euro and US wines has narrowed as many imports have seemingly risen in price vs many domestic examples. Stylistically I still lean towards Europe in a big way but there’s plenty from the US between $25-100 that can keep me happy.
IMO effectively unenforceable (assuming that’s in a US-EU agreement). Trump could impose tariffs on 1/20/25 (I doubt he’ll do it that quickly), and there’s probably no real effective dispute settlement mechanism that the EU could go to to say “hey, we agreed!” What’s more, the remedy would likely be simply to impose tariffs of their own on US goods, which is exactly where they would be in the absence of an agreement.
More broadly, Trump’s approach seems to be primarily transactional. Just imposing tariffs isn’t all he seems to want to do - he wants to use them as a tool to extract something from the other country (jurisdiction). Who knows what that might be with the EU - maybe higher NATO contributions - so he’d say instead “I’ll slap tariffs on wine (and maybe a bunch of other things) if you don’t do X” . . . but he’ll probably need a little time to figure out what the X is that really matters.
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Maybe Elon is a big EU wine collector and will convince the Donald to squeeze elsewhere?
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We never learn lessons from the past, do we?
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ngl, had to double check this post was from 2024 and not from 2016.
If a 20% tariff kills demand for Champagne and other top wines, they’ll just move to other international markets. The huge price difference between wine in Europe and the same wine purchased here isn’t caused by taxation differences, it’s our antiquated 3 tier distribution system.
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Demand for wine is down overall and the U.S. is probably the most lucrative market for many. Unless you’re Selosse, I don’t think the U.S. market is that easily replaceable. In this sales environment I think even a modest tariff would be very damaging.
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