Seeing Shatter In Napa For 2026

Cellar Rats (ITB)
1

I visited about a dozen Napa vineyards yesterday and today. Seeing 20-30% shatter in vineyards that pruned early. I am guessing some recent rains caught various vineyards during flowering? Seeing less shatter with late-pruned vineyards. Also seeing more among the usual shatter-prone Cab clones (4, 6, 30) and less in 169, 685, 7, 8. One very important (and large) vineyard for a large Rutherford winery looked down 66%. Not sure what happened there. Overall, I am guessing tonnage will be down 20%+ overall this vintage, and who knows what more will need to be dropped at Veraison.

For wineries that feel they are over-extended and purchase Cab fruit by the ton, this might be good news. For growers, less so.

2

I talked to a fella in Anderson Valley yesterday who grows 5 different varieties…not just Pinot, and he reported that they look above average. He wasn’t thrilled as much of it came out of contract after last harvest.

3

Napa is definitely -20% compared to last year. Maybe more. Already this is causing wineries to suddenly buy fruit that was unsold just a month ago.

4

Shatter seems to be the theme of 2026. Things still look super early…from what I’m told, and a light crop ripens faster than a heavier one. As it’s never fun to have a light crop, this is probably just what the industry needs.