Andrew’s version of moolah! ![[highfive.gif]](/uploads/db3686/original/2X/d/db21b9263a9105e51f6f8b11e61dd4de095611f9.gif "highfive"){kind=small}
No, just the new Customer Service, Refund, and Shipment policies at PC.
I have 4 btls to ship to Los Angeles. I guess I should collect while I can. Anyone want to combine orders to fill out a case?
Just received shipping confirmation. Looks like it’s a case. I am guessing 6 Pegau 2011 and 6 Janasse Chaupin 2011.
This is exactly what I did with Amex, based in part on Carolina Wine experience. Will report back what I hear.
If only PC posed a threat of Mickey Mouse appearing in animated porn, Congress might step in and help.
Sad. It’s a nice vision. I wish they could have worked it out – for themselves and everyone else.
Edited to say: perhaps they will. But wow, it seems like all the lemmings have leapt… No more reinforcements buying tickets for the jump…
I’m very interested to see how January plays itself out here.
While many on this thread profess knowledge of the situation, it’s really just external knowledge. What you can learn from the various filings and undeliverables and bounced checks, etc. All this ‘looks’ bad (obviously), but it’s all from the outside looking at the results of what’s going on inside. None of us really knows what’s going on inside. Are there assets that Fox owns (prepaid wine that may arrive? Where he prepaid?), that have value to a lender or a potential co-investor? I’m not saying these do exist, only that they may exist.
So should this get people to buy from PC again? Nope. Why risk the problems and hassles here for just a little bit of wine.
And should this get people with $5k or $20k of wine to hold off with the credit cards and fly out to CA to see if they can work something out? Again no, too much work relative to the potential gain (so much easier to just hand this to the credit card companies and allow their scale to do the legal work for you).
But, I have to say, if I had $1mm of exposure here, I’d be on a plane to CA. Not to ‘try to get my money back’, but to see if I could ‘help’ Fox while helping myself. I’d try to verify if there are actually assets out there with different cashflow timings (so pre-arrivals that have been paid for, documented, that are actually assets), to see if I could buy these assets to free up cashflow for Fox today. And because this is so obvious to me in NY over breakfast, I’m sure others are doing this in CA. Fox knows lots of people, and if he can substantiate these assets, he can get through this bad period.
And again, before I get jumped on here, I am in no way advocating anyone buy from PC now, nor am I advocating anyone hold off on their credit card refunds. Just that we only know the results of what’s going on inside PC and not what’s actually happening, so we have to accept that there’s some non-zero probability (I’d put it higher than others) that unattached assets still exist.
Let’s see how January plays itself out here. Probably it will be bad, but maybe something else will materialize.
people know different things. and absence of evidence (especially on this wine board) is not evidence of absence.
as you know from your life in finance, if something is so obvious, then you’re missing something.
Actually, what I know from Finance is if everyone is telling me one thing, then it’s probably ‘overprice’ in that direction and funny things tend to materialize. Not that they will, but that they can.
Everything is relative to expectations, and expectations for PC at the moment are pretty close to zero! I wish there was a way for me to bet on PC’s survival, at true current market odds. Based on this board, I’d say I should get 1,000 to 1!
For fun, go back to the pundits in March 2009. Universally bearish on the global stock markets.
Lex parsimoniae
If there had been these assets, the simplest thing would have been to be more transparent, show them and stop or curtail this massive exodus.
If there had been these assets, showing their existence to the courts and legal teams of the individuals that are suing you might have staved off legal action.
If there had been these assets, shoving them into containers and shipped over to NA when the fecal matter hit the rotating blades of the fan would have made sense.
If there had been these assets, selling them in Europe and either using the capital to continue to pay yourself or selling for cash and hiding the money over there while staying radio silent to your customers would make financial (though not moral) sense.
Having these assets, not talking about or fully demonstrating their existence, having many many half filled containers of wine which won’t or can’t be consolidated together, selling everything on hand but not resupplying with product you have already paid for, going to an online only model and needing security guards to stop irate customers from raiding and stripping the now empty store BUT STILL REMAINING A FUNCTIONING, GOING CONCERN seems to be the hypotheses with the MOST assumptions…
Lex parsimoniae
If there > had > been these assets, the simplest thing would have been to be more transparent, show them and stop or curtail this massive exodus.
If there > had > been these assets, showing their existence to the courts and legal teams of the individuals that are suing you might have staved off legal action.
If there > had > been these assets, shoving them into containers and shipped over to NA when the fecal matter hit the rotating blades of the fan would have made sense.
If there > had > been these assets, selling them in Europe and either using the capital to continue to pay yourself or selling for cash and hiding the money over there while staying radio silent to your customers would make financial (though not moral) sense.
Having these assets, not talking about or fully demonstrating their existence, having many many half filled containers of wine which won’t or can’t be consolidated together, selling everything on hand but not resupplying with product you have already paid for, going to an online only model and needing security guards to stop irate customers from raiding and stripping the now empty store > BUT STILL REMAINING A FUNCTIONING, GOING CONCERN > seems to be the hypotheses with the > MOST > assumptions…
+1
Peter, this. You know that I love you like a brother (except when I don’t), but your head is dangerously close to your derriere at this late date. Analogizing to other situations and the occasional best-seller is completely irrelevant at this late date, even if it makes you feel better or gives you false hope for getting the rest of your money back. Your “whales on a plane to L.A.” theory has real-world examples going for it, but no application to PC at this late date. The ship sailed on a potential PC bailout a long time ago, and the whales who did not get their wine or their money out know that. The business would need to be viable to be bailed out. Wine that has been paid for needs to be in the store right now. PC needs to have trade credit in Europe, rather than facing only cash upon delivery. PC needs to have avoided being sued by all of the major credit card companies, and its POS machines need to be working. There is not a single fact here that would cause a rational lender of any stripe to even consider bailing out PC, and no single customer is likely to have both enough outstanding wine and investment money to make bailing out PC his or her best option. Could it happen? Yes. Anthony Bourdain could buy Maison Ilan and make good on virtually every order, with all shipping charges waived. Pigs may fly in our lifetimes. Rob has it right on his analysis, however, and you are:
[video]https://youtu.be/r-ISaYrLLG8[/video]
I have a UPS tracking number with status (parcel moving across US 2 day air) but they have not charged my CC for shipping. Is it possible that they have lost the ability to charge credit cards?
Typically someone has to enter in a charge for shipping since it is a separate charge. If they are short on people, this might be delayed.
When I had my wine business, UPS charged me directly to my credit card (was able to get miles). This does mean they are up to date on this billing.
For the hell of it, tried to call. Rang for about 30 rings, then disconnected. No message any longer.
It’s early - but this is certainly in the running for post of the year!
I am going to try and think about a good reason as to why a business under assault from all sorts of lawsuits, customer complaints etc. has pre-paid HIGHLY regulated assets stored overseas.
I just need one reason…so I will try real hard to think of one.
Also will try and think as to if these “hidden” assets did actually exist, why on gods green earth John Fox would want to convert them to cash at this point in time.
This smells an awful lot like the Vinfolio debacle. Even at the highest pain point in 2010, Steve Case bailed them out - maybe he will see opportunity here, but you are correct. Highly unlikely. Bounced checks for $500 doesn’t indicate much opportunity, and assuming the risk when they are bouncing checks for $556,000 is a pretty big deterrent to investment. I’m sure there is a lesson in BoA’s DOJ forced liability immediately following their acquisition of Countrywide.
Because the escrow hasn’t expired on all their secret banking arrangements with the Classified growths and DRC?
We learned about creeping determinism upthread. I wonder what the behavioral economists would say about the convoluted theories offered that would keep PC afloat?
I’m sure some of you have seen these emails, but as Bill Klapp alluded to upthread, it seems like others in the business may still be willing to do conduct ‘cash on delivery’ transactions with PC.
Normally that would be hard to detect, but for items like Krohns lineup, which didn’t seem to have a broad distribution network, and were likely sole sourced through PC, it becomes more likely. Obviously no proof that PC sold the stuff below to the retailer, but its a reasonable inference. And if that activity is still happening, it may be why court administration may have to forced. If cash is still coming in the door, why file?
To wit, from an email I was sent recently
===========
Our last find of 2015 is a real dusey. It’s not often that one can save 40% on a vintage Port that was already a good value at its original price. When a small Port producer has to compete against the likes of the Symington Family (Dow’s, Graham’s, Quinta do Vesuvio, Smith Woodhouse, Cockburn’s, and Warre’s) it is hard to make headway (even with lower pricing) in the US market. Which leads us to this vintage gem from Krohn which perfectly embodies the plush, silky demeanor that made the 2007’s so charming upon release. By rights this 2007 Krohn represents a smart buy at forty dollars. Now, thanks to a distributor liquidation, it is a down right steal at just $23.95.