Pop goes the bubble?

WINE TALK
#1

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/03/uk-sothebys-auction-idUSLNE79201K20111003

Unsold lots of Lafite in Hong Kong…

#2

Lafite has been consistently weak this fall. Only bottles with pristine labels seem to be selling, and even then the prices are lower than they were earliee this year.

Even then, nobody is overpaying. I gather a ton of 2003 Lafite failed to sell in Hong Kong as well. My guess is that the estimates are based on the highs, and the smart auction houses are adjusting estimates and reserves where possible.

#3

Yeah, the whole Chinese market’s come unglued. '88 DRC for $9800 per 750 bottle…sounds like a fire sale. rolleyes

RT

#4

I sold the few bottles of Lafite I had. I wish someone would let the Chinese in on the secret…SQN is ultra hip. First growth Bordeaux and GC Burgs are so 2010. neener

David [drinkers.gif]

#5

Well I for one would never want to have a bottle of Lafite that had a nicked label.

#6

I agree; nicked label lafites taste terrible

#7

The peak was last Dec/Jan - with the 2000 vintage probably taking the biggest hit since then, losing close to a third of its value from the peak. The question is whether or not the market will tank or if it will level-off… Either way, if anyone is still holding bottles that they plan to sell, I would get out ASAP.

#8

I lol’d

#9

Funnily today there was an article showing that wine is considered one of the few remaining “safe” investments in Switzerland :slight_smile:

I’d like to know more about the unsold lots of Lafite, I can only guess the reserve price wasn’t meant. A few overpriced cases of Lafite not selling is not quite the same as a bubble bursting, at least not just yet. We’re still in the midst of a brutal correction on the stock markets, so I’m not too surprised that luxury goods aren’t all so hot right now.

#10

The Asian art market, at least the middle tier, is beginning to struggle

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/04/uk-sothebys-china-contemporary-idUSLNE79301G20111004

#11

I would hardly call this a popping of the bubble considering the prices still being paid. It might be the first signs of some fracturing. Call me when Lafite from a good vintage starts selling routinely for less than $500/btl., then I might consider the bubble popped.

If I held any Lafite and wanted to sell, I would do so now. I doubt prices will go higher in the relatively near term.

Chris

#12

Or yet…
Another option is to drink the damn stuff… [snort.gif] [smileyvault-ban.gif]

#13

and cue Jeff Leve…

#14

I hear it’s pretty good.

#15

Frankly, THAT is something I would never do. I just don’t get that much incremental pleasure from drinking the 1st’s to justify such action. Having tasted blind many times, the 1st’s always seem to just come out as consistently good, but never stand out. At the price differential for them, I would expect for them to nearly always come out on top.

Conclusion: Great wine is great wine. 1st Growths have a premium for their luxury branding, but not what is in the bottle.

I would be happy to sell that branding as it isn’t important to me. I would never criticize anyone for feeling differently.

Chris

#16

I think this is more of an indication of the expansion of the market (in terms of breadth of interest), and that the narrow focus on singular brands (i.e. Lafite), is beginning to fade a bit, but I think will ultimately remain strong, but not insane like it’s been. I’ve heard the next big thing in China is micro production wines, (i.e. Le Pin), and I’ve also heard Pomerol has become hot in some areas (Hosanna, Trotanoy, and VCC are ones that have come up lately). Italy could see a huge shot in the arm. Cult Tuscan wines do great in Japan, will be interesting to see if that has more carry over to China than it does now.