New buyers are going to be paying a lot more for their fine wine.

[Jim_Hartten]

Mark, thanks for revisiting the never ending discussion on where wine prices are headed going forward. I am a regular buyer of what we often call Bordeaux QPRs, and I agree that the better of these Chateau have been seeing steady increases over time - that said, I think the real damage for me is seeing higher tier wines like Leoville Barton, Lynch Bages, Cos, Pinchon go up to prices I can’t justify paying. So I think the price rises in the upper tiers has been more damaging to long-time collectors than price rises for value wines at the lower end.

As far as lower-end QPR Bordeaux, a wine like Gloria that recently came out in the $27-$32 range on futures is now $42 (2016). Other wines like Poujeaux, Meyney, Grand Mayne have also been creeping higher, but I think still offer good value relative to similarly priced wines from other regions. There seems to be a lot 2012 Bordeaux being offered recently (also a smattering of 2011s and 2013s), in many cases, at only slight discounts. Though I would add that many 2012s I have tried recently (bought off the shelf not on futures) have shown pretty well. Anyway, I vote to keep prices in check…

[Victor_Hong]

@Robert Alfert

You sound like Victor!

The market for fine wine seems to oscillate. I’m not worried, but then again, I’m also not just starting to buy fine wine. I will say, I have bought more this past year than perhaps any other year in my life, due to an incredible run of vintages in the regions that I adore, a strong dollar relative to the Euro, and daily emails with deep discounts. I just bought today 6 bottles of 2012 d’Armailhac for $27.99. Classified Growh at house wine pricing, I like that.

If you WineHunt, you pay less, not more, for fine wine. Otherwise, it must be nice to care not.

[Dennis_Atick]

@Victor Hong

If you WineHunt, you pay less, not more, for fine wine. Otherwise, it must be nice to care not.

I miss winehunter threads. Used to be like one per day on the old board. And here. People just don’t share deals anymore? Or fewer deals?

[Dan.Gord0n]

At least for me, there is a difference between drinking wine regularly and having great choices and collecting/pursuing wine as a serious hobby.

I agree with the comments that there is far more quality wine being produced now then ever before and that there are still plenty of wines from all regions in which to find great drinking and every day enjoyment and even excitement. With this view, I don’t feel negative about the wine market and situation.

However, this is a board where collecting and pursuing wine as a serious hobby dominates. This perspective focuses on the “great” wines and often the “greatest” wines - perhaps often only 100+/- producers world wide and a small fraction of the wine market where pricing has gone crazy and where the mere entrance of only another 100-200 brand new serious, very wealthy collectors worldwide can create and has created market distortions in price and allocations.

I’ve been lucky over the last 20 years or so to have been able to try a large portion of what I would put on the list from those 100+ producer and many in a number of vintages and even buy quite a few of them. This access was very material to the growth of my excitement for this hobby - if I had never been able to buy and taste at the top, never been able to have those experiences, I don’t think I would have ever become as passionate, bought as much or invested as much time, money, etc. in the hobby. Just wouldn’t have been as fun for me if the true top of the wine world was never attainable for buying and drinking. That’s not to say that I wouldn’t have been very interested, wouldn’t have bought and drunk as an enthusiast, but just that it wouldn’t have been nearly as serious.

In fact, as my ability to buy those wines has slowly dried up (for instance, from being able to buy 2-3 bottles and sometimes more of pretty much any Burgundy at regular retail in 2002 vintage to basically nothing by 2010 vintage) and the pricing of the bottles that I do own have become ridiculous (making it feel harder to open them but for the most special of occasions), I have felt my “serious” interest in the hobby slipping away and my perspective changing far more to a “drinker” and mere enthusiast view - where admittedly I can get about 90% of the drinking pleasure but only about 25% of the serious collector pleasure. For instance, as much as I really enjoy popping that $50 “nice find”, it is merely excellent wine to drink but little for me to be passionate about. For many years my Burgundy group would regularly get together and have an evening where we would focus on one particular Grand Cru Burg vineyard and open 15-20 bottles of the best producers/aged vintages - that was thrilling and could foster passion and excitement and I think we just about covered every vineyard so was very important developmentally in growing the seriousness of the hobby for me - while expensive then, it was still doable for us - not sure how doable now and probably impossible for us. Just not sure having a wine dinner focused on great village Burgs or a 1er cru vineyard would create the same level of interest and excitement or develop the same passion…very hard to go backwards so to speak. Perhaps I am in a lull and need to reset as all interests and hobbies can ebb and flow…

I think it is with this serious collector viewpoint that many around here are lamenting the current wine market and lamenting the fact that to continue to pursue and enjoy the wines that have brought them so much excitement and pleasure in the past, the “investment” has become far too great. I am in that camp and, therefore, while I am optimistic about my drinking possibilities, I am pessimistic from my perspective as a serious collector.

At the same time, it would be great to hear from new collectors since it is too hard to put on the hat of a new collector and understand their view - what excites them and what drives the passion of the hobby for them is likely very different than what drove it for me.

[Thomas_Keim]

@Joe G a l e w s k i

I am seeing prices increase considerably in the USA. I think a lot of it is driven by economics.

As it has been since the end of Prohibition. Whenever I brag about selling 1982 Latour & Mouton futures for $33 a bottle - someone is always there to remind me that they paid $3 for the 1961 Latour on futures.

[Matthew.Rashbrook]

@Bryan Price

Sure would be nice to see some inflation-adjusted numbers for these expensive Bordeaux bottles. My thinking is if you like something because it is cool (I don’t think that’s anyone on this board), then you will definitely be chasing a moving target. I’m looking at YOU, whiskey and craft beer!

I asked the CPI calculator to convert $30 April 1984 dollars into February 2018 dollars, and it told me $72.45. You can play around with dates/figures here: https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=30&year1=198404&year2=201802

Regarding the OP, I think OP is correct regarding the effect. I’m not positive of the cause but the culprits he mentions seem to me some of the likely contributors. I would hazard a guess that the explosion of the number of rich people in China is the single biggest cause, and not one that rates to reverse in my buying lifetime (35 today, fwiw).

Comments to the effect of “Well, I can still get (wines not addressed in the OP) for a price I can afford!” don’t address the OP and contribute little, if anything.

[Mark_Golodetz]

@Otto Forsberg

But your point is that you assume EVERYONE would want to collect these wines. My point was that no matter whether they were or weren’t affordable back in the day or are or aren’t now, it doesn’t matter, if people are not interested in them. And here’s the newsflash: most new wine collectors really aren’t interested in 1er Cru Bordeaux, Cult Cabs or Burgs one bit.

As pointed out many times before in this very thread, the world is full of spectacular wines that are ridiculously cheap now and it is very likely that people will lament in 20-30 years how no-one can afford them anymore, while they were dirt cheap back in the day. Of course there are no substitutes for the greatest of Burgundies outside Burgundy, but neither have I seen substitutes for the greatest of pre-WW2 Colares wines, or classic Taurasi wines or Juhfarks from Somló. You can find these wines for very affordable prices for now, but if suddenly winds change and wine trends start favor them instead, things might look very different in the future.

Yes EVERYONE would, even you. If I offered you a bottle of La Tache for the same price as a bottle of Taurasi; I am pretty sure you would take the La Tache. And if that was offered to board members, it would be close to 100% as well. They are interested as are neophyte collectors, and we get back to my original point, the blue chips are not affordable, so they are not going to dwell on it, and will look for other things. And I see it in NY with some of the sommeliers, they make the most of what you have, by hyping the hell out of these wines, and sadly showing contempt for more traditional regions.

[DougS]

I’m so glad I don’t define “fine wine” as only the top producers from the most famous regions.

[MHwhite]

I came of age, in wine terms, in this decade. When I first came to California (in 2012,) there were a lot of 05/06/07 Burgundies on the market, and the prices weren’t insane, so I was able to taste a fair bit of pretty good stuff around that time, and when you work in wine production in an affluent area, you get exposed to the classics and greats here and there over time. I think for wine lovers of my generation (I’m 31,) you just have to move on and find your own classics. I buy and cellar a lot of dry Riesling, some well-priced Chablis, Montlouis, Jura Chardonnay, as well as things like Baudry and Lapierre. Those wines are attainable.

White burgundy is my greatest love, but the better wines are just out of reach. And anyway, for me, the best examples of dry wines from the Rheinhessen are near qualitative equals of Grand Cru Burgundy, so while a $80 bottle of Wittmann Morstein is an expensive wine, it’s nothing like what you’ll shell out for Montrachet.

[Markus_S]

Thing is, the world of wine (heck, The World) has changed since the days of old Englishmen talking about Claret. Those that want to chase (as you seem to advocate) the big game will always do so, but I don’t think you necessarily “learn” anything by drinking them that you cannot find in more affordable bottles. Perhaps there is the secret handshake that passes amongst the cognoscenti, but what have you really learned besides the fact that you can swallow expensive juice? Heck, I’d say even many of us old-timers couldn’t afford certain wines “before” either. I’ve never had the salary that many of you here seem to have, so therefore have only had a DRC wine once, a Clos St. Hune once, and Yquem once…and on-and-on. While you may consider that a hardship, I assure you it isn’t, as it forces you to get creative in thinking about what you can taste. I don’t think we should limit the discussion about what is expensive and rare. The world of wine is much bigger than that.

[Otto_Forsberg]

@Mark Golodetz

Yes EVERYONE would, even you. If I offered you a bottle of La Tache for the same price as a bottle of Taurasi; I am pretty sure you would take the La Tache. And if that was offered to board members, it would be close to 100% as well. They are interested as are neophyte collectors, and we get back to my original point, the blue chips are not affordable, so they are not going to dwell on it, and will look for other things. And I see it in NY with some of the sommeliers, they make the most of what you have, by hyping the hell out of these wines, and sadly showing contempt for more traditional regions.

You’re absolutely correct in that I would pick it.

However, that is only because I would be getting an expensive wine dirt cheap. I would be do the same even for some overripe over-oaked overpriced Cult Cab, even though I’ve yet to taste one that I like (mainly because we so very few US wines here across the pond).

However, were DRC’s wines priced similarly to Taurasi wines, I doubt I’d fill my cellar with them. I might have a bottle or two but otherwise things wouldn’t be any different from how they are now.

[Cole_Kendall]

@Thomas Keim

@Joe G a l e w s k i

I am seeing prices increase considerably in the USA. I think a lot of it is driven by economics.

As it has been since the end of Prohibition. Whenever I brag about selling 1982 Latour & Mouton futures for $33 a bottle - someone is always there to remind me that they paid $3 for the 1961 Latour on futures.

My dad used to talk about people who thought it was outrageous that he drank 61 first growths for $10 in a restaurant. Who would pay that much for wine?

[Jeremy_C]

@Otto Forsberg

@Mark Golodetz

Yes EVERYONE would, even you. If I offered you a bottle of La Tache for the same price as a bottle of Taurasi; I am pretty sure you would take the La Tache. And if that was offered to board members, it would be close to 100% as well. They are interested as are neophyte collectors, and we get back to my original point, the blue chips are not affordable, so they are not going to dwell on it, and will look for other things. And I see it in NY with some of the sommeliers, they make the most of what you have, by hyping the hell out of these wines, and sadly showing contempt for more traditional regions.

You’re absolutely correct in that I would pick it.

However, that is only because I would be getting an expensive wine dirt cheap. I would be do the same even for some overripe over-oaked overpriced Cult Cab, even though I’ve yet to taste one that I like (mainly because we so very few US wines here across the pond).

However, were DRC’s wines priced similarly to Taurasi wines, I doubt I’d fill my cellar with them. I might have a bottle or two but otherwise things wouldn’t be any different from how they are now.

I’m not sure I follow. The wine should only be expensive if it is in demand; otherwise, it will considered less valuable and priced accordingly. I believe Mark’s point is, the very fact that the wines of which he speaks are so expensive (and becoming even more so with less and less passage of time) supports the idea that there continues to be significant demand.

[Otto_Forsberg]

@Jeremy C

I’m not sure I follow. The wine should only be expensive if it is in demand; otherwise, it will considered less valuable and priced accordingly. I believe Mark’s point is, the very fact that the wines of which he speaks are so expensive (and becoming even more so with less and less passage of time) supports the idea that there continues to be significant demand.

My point was that Mark said that were the wines affordably priced (as they once were, according to his original post), he’s absolutely certain that I’d buy those and I just commented that I wouldn’t be so sure.

Had I lived back in the day when those wines were affordable, I might have bought a bottle every once in a while, but I doubt I would’ve consistently filled my cellar with them. After all, there are tons of affordably priced, well-esteemed wines in the market today yet you don’t see me stacking up on those either.

[DanielP]

@Otto Forsberg

@Jeremy C

I’m not sure I follow. The wine should only be expensive if it is in demand; otherwise, it will considered less valuable and priced accordingly. I believe Mark’s point is, the very fact that the wines of which he speaks are so expensive (and becoming even more so with less and less passage of time) supports the idea that there continues to be significant demand.

My point was that Mark said that were the wines affordably priced (as they once were, according to his original post), he’s absolutely certain that I’d buy those and I just commented that I wouldn’t be so sure.

Had I lived back in the day when those wines were affordable, I might have bought a bottle every once in a while, but I doubt I would’ve consistently filled my cellar with them. After all, there are tons of affordably priced, well-esteemed wines in the market today yet you don’t see me stacking up on those either.

If you lived back in the day, then you wouldn’t stock up on just DRC La Tache, because there were so many other fairly priced wines of equivalent caliber. If DRC LT was priced as it was then in today’s environment, it would almost absolutely be the best wine at its price range (I assume its quality on reputation. I’m not exactly a DRC type buyer). Purely for drinking that is, forget any investment type business.

[Subu_Ramachandran]

@Markus S

Thing is, the world of wine (heck, The World) has changed since the days of old Englishmen talking about Claret.

Many in this forum have a hard time realizing this.

@Doug Schulman

I’m so glad I don’t define “fine wine” as only the top producers from the most famous regions.

Oh and this too…Just in another thread someone posted 99% of burgundy is crap and only DRC is worth it…It cracked me up!

[ky1em1ttskus]

@Subu Ramachandran

@Markus S

Thing is, the world of wine (heck, The World) has changed since the days of old Englishmen talking about Claret.

Many in this forum have a hard time realizing this.

@Doug Schulman

I’m so glad I don’t define “fine wine” as only the top producers from the most famous regions.

Oh and this too…Just in another thread someone posted 99% of burgundy is crap and only DRC is worth it…It cracked me up!

Totally agree. A couple years ago, I was told that I couldn’t have an opinion on a wine variety unless I had tasted the very top, whatever that means (I assume some equation consisting of price and points), of that variety.

[Mattstolz]

I don’t think there are as many differences of opinion here as differences of purpose. there are two different conversations happening past each other here.

in one hand, those of us in the “young and spendy (or not as spendy)” category have access to a dizzying array of every increasing quality wines. in some ways, we will benefit from a distribution of winemaking knowledge that allows a larger pool of good wines to choose from. that is something that would not have been possible in the 70s and 80s when the winedrinking generation before us was starting out, able to buy 1st growths for fractions of what they cost now.

on the other hand, some of us may never even get a chance to know what we’re missing by not purchasing those 1st growths of Grand Crus in favor of things that are easier on our budget. I don’t ever foresee a time when a bottle of DRC will be within my reach financially. its likely this is going to be true even for a large proportion of our wine-loving generation. similar stories are true even for less expensive bottles like lafite, the LaLas, Giacosa red labels, etc.

What I am interested to see is really how the market responds to the changes in our generations buying preferences. When there is a plethora of choices, will demand for some of the blue chips decrease? will it be enough to bring the release price down? we see threads at least monthly of people claiming they are done buying new wines. what happens when people who have cellars full of 1st growths ACTUALLY stop collecting them (we know none of you have yet)? will the fact that Taurasi offers a delicious alternative or that north piedmont is growing better nebbiolo eventually calm the growth down? its an exciting time to be collecting wine, but in some ways it is also a tough time to be doing so as well.

[Rory_K]

@Doug Schulman

I’m so glad I don’t define “fine wine” as only the top producers from the most famous regions.

++1

[Rory_K]

I am a new collector relative to many here (started 10 years ago), and I’m not lamenting the price of Haut-Brion, nor do I feel screwed! There has never been so much great wine, not just ‘drinkable’ but great, beautiful, fascinating. I often feel there are just too many wonderful regions and producers for one little drinker like me to explore in a lifetime. It sounds to me like you have a very staid idea of what membership in the ‘fine wine’ club looks like.