New buyers are going to be paying a lot more for their fine wine.

WINE TALK
21

But maybe it won’t happen.

Remember that Joe Kennedy supposedly said he knew it was time to get out of the stock market when his shoe-shine boy was passing stock tips. Shortly after the world got to enjoy the Great Depression.

When Drew Barrymore, a Khardashian, and countless sports figures and movie people are “into” wine and buying wineries, it’s time for a correction. They’ll lose interest, wine will be less fashionable, and there will be a glut of wine looking for a home.

A few years ago you couldn’t touch some of the high end Napa Cabs. Then we had a downturn in the market and they became available at auctions and elsewhere.

Right now there is a lot of surplus if you’re not focused on specific labels. People go out of business, lose distributors, sell out, and their wine finds its way to clearance racks and remainder shops.

The high end French and Italian wine will continue to sell because people want the pedigree. But places like Spain have people producing lots of wines over $100 a bottle that may be picked up by some people but that aren’t going to be permanent fixtures in the wine market. Same with California, Washington, Greece, and elsewhere. Some will fill the demands of the growing population, but to the degree that they’re responses to fads and fashions, they’ll be available at some point.

And fashions in wine also change. Lopez de Heredia has a lot of old stuff because they couldn’t sell it. Now people on this board are orgasmic over it. Conversely, there are producers in Napa who wouldn’t let just anybody buy their wine a few years ago and now you can get on their lists without difficulty.

People are screwed for sure if they want name Burgundy. But they’re also able to get a wider selection of great wines than any time in history, so there’s a trade off. And they don’t have to drink Pinot Noir either. So in many ways it’s a blessed time to be a wine drinker.

22

Sure would be nice to see some inflation-adjusted numbers for these expensive Bordeaux bottles. My thinking is if you like something because it is cool (I don’t think that’s anyone on this board), then you will definitely be chasing a moving target. I’m looking at YOU, whiskey and craft beer!

23

If you want only top end BDX, Burg, some Rhône’s and Cali trophy wines, sure it’s crazy and getting crazier. But the world of wine is so much wider than that. To say people are screwed because they won’t be able to afford the tiny slice of the wine world that you prize is a pretty arrogant view IMO.

24

^ Huge +1.

25

I think Mark is broadly right. Clearly, fine wine has gone up by far more than inflation - which means those wanting to buy the good stuff now need to shell out a greater portion of their disposable income to do so. Overall, this is probably a long term trend but I expect some wines / styles have already, and will continue, to flatten out. Who’s still paying $500 for Masseto for example? I think top Burgundy will continue to become more ridiculously expensive because there isn’t any ability to scale up production or substitute. But in most other areas, as other people have already said, there will continue to be relative bargains. Relative to the rest of the market, of course, not relative to what Mark used to pay :slight_smile:!

26

Agree with David B. It may be too late to get in on DRC, Screaming Eagle and the like, but there is more good and great wine at attainable prices than ever.

As Ernie Harwell said, you can live life looking through the windshield, or through the rear view mirror.

27

What an incredibly condescending little post. It’s not just me, but practically every wine lover who would love to collect and drink these wines. Glad to see you eliminated Burgundy to help your argument; I would not, and if you want to experience the great ones, finding alternatives is pretty difficult. Perhaps you would tell me what to substitute for Dujac’s Clos de la Roche or Tremblay’s Chapelle Chambertins? Even their premier crus are getting hard to find and very pricy, never mind DRC, Roumier and Fourrier. All pretty unique wines, and ones that the new collector will have to pay a fortune to buy.

But let’s leave Burgundy, and try a few Bordeaux. Hard to find substitutes for many of the top wines. You can always trade down- Lafite? well Ducru is close, but still not cheap. How about Beychevelle, not close but it’s a good wine, right? Latour? I suppose Pontet Canet is making good wines these days, but again it’s not really the same is it? Margaux? Palmer is nudging $300, so how about Rauzan Segla? Haut Brion and la Mission? Can’t think off a real alternative there. Cheval Blanc and Petrus? Same.

Let’s go further afield. Monfortino, doubled in the last couple of years. Well you can always go after Cascina Francia but that also has doubled and is getting pretty pricy. And besides nobody is going to mistake one for the other. Soldera? Chave? Allemand? Rayas? The blue chips are expensive, have a following and are tough to duplicate. The most obvious substitution are Giacosa white labels as an alternative to the reds. Although they are getting more expensive that really does work, as you can get a sense of the greatness of the wine for a fraction of the price.

I concede there is plenty of good drinkable wine out there, and I would happily drink a good $60 Barolo, or a Chateau D’Issan at the same price. Lovely wines, but that is not what I am talking about, I am talking about producers who make unique and incredibly special wines that people want to try.

In my day, and I suspect in yours, we had access to these wines at not unreasonable prices. So I find your smug assertion that the new collectors don’t need to drink these wines really, well there is no other word for it than smug, after all you have drunk these wines, they haven’t, and won’t be able to without dropping a fortune.

28

This came across as more like name-dropping than a solid argument and thus I found your post as equally condescending as the one you argued against.

I love good Pinot Noir as much as the next guy and I’ll happily drink good Burgundy whenever given the opportunity, yet I don’t feel like I’ve been left out of something big even when I’m unable to fill my cellar with esteemed producers.

The world is full of spectacular wines and most times when I’ve been impressed by a wine has been when I’ve been drinking a wine or a producer I did not know beforehand - these are the wines I’m happy to fill my cellar with, not with producers a bigger audience has labeled as the top of the crop. After all, my cellar can hold only so many bottles and I can afford only so many, so I really don’t see point in fretting about the wines I can’t afford or get my hands on.

29

Mark, again I ask, is there news here? This has been happening as long as I remember. You seem to be suggesting in your OP some new dynamic at work here. But I don’t see it. I see the same problem that has been at work as long as I have been drinking wine - the number of wine lovers is increasing much faster than the supply of the best wine.

The supply of top wines has been increasing in the top wine regions over the past generation. For example, I remember when Lafite and Margaux, for example, were underperformers. That is no longer the case. Similarly, there are a lot more top producers of Burgundy these days and a lot fewer underachievers than when I started buying Burgundy, but again I don’t see where supply can go up much more. But, is this really enough to mean a new dynamic?

So, I agree with your larger point - that wine prices go up - but wonder what is the news here?

30

You obviously were not buying wine in the 80s. The great wines then cost less than the good wines now.

31

Generally true, if you want to chase the “cult names” the prices are crazy. But one needs to consider few things:

  1. Quality of viticulture and wine making is better now than ever before. Perhaps 50 years back it was mainly first-growth bdx or top names in Burgundy that were producing good wines. 25 years back the field expanded, now the list is lot longer.

  2. The younger generation values diversity more than tradition. They are much more excited to try and buy a wine from a new region, with indigenous grapes, grown by a small yet very good generation producer. They are not excited about just another Cab or Chard from anywhere in the world. Just the other day at a retailer tasting, I saw Filipa Pato’s wines sell out before any Pauillacs or Napa Cabs.

  3. Food choices in the new generation is affecting a lot of what they buy. The question they are facing is whats a point of having a cellar full of Cabs, if I don’t each much red meat. As the food consumption is changing towards healthier, fresher not fatty foods…so are the wines. The definition of fine wine is changing to lighter, fresher and often more towards white wine.

  4. Climate change is and will be a big factor. Most of the so called grand-sites/crus are typically the warmer areas. So 100 years back that was the area where the grapes fully ripened. Now those areas are too hot to make “fine wine”. In vintages like 15s and 17s in Piedmont, why do you need a Ginestra or a Brunate? One can get a “fine wine” at village level in a vintage like 15 in burgundy.

  5. Trend is always changing…centuries back Chinon was much more valued than 1st growth bdx. Tokay from Hungary was the most expensive wine. Champagne was primarily sweet. The collectors from that era will be shocked to see what’s trending now. I wont be shocked if someone told me Georgian wines are “the in thing” 50 years from now.

  6. There are fine wine at great prices. There are great producers working with old vineyards, making world class wines at very affordable prices. One just needs to look beyond the keyhole. Granted it may not be available for $20. However, if one is keen on writing checks to Rothschild family or Stan Kroenke or LVMH or “Cult producer”, that’s his/her choice.

32

It’s a question of degree, and subjectivity. When I started collecting, I could afford these wines relatively easily. Recently, the rise in prices has been so significant I am certainly not chasing these wines any more, and I feel for the person starting out.

33

+1

34

The person starting out is not going to start collecting the wines you started your collection with. You don’t have to feel for them.

35

Well, let’s hope for a wine crash then.

36

I am 42. I started collecting wine when I was 21. But I still feel like I am starting out, in the sense there is a lot more U want to buy and collect. So I feel like I am one in Mark’s category.

I feel lucky to have bought LMHB for 1/5 if what it is now, bought the one La Tache I have had off a wine list for 550 (95 vintage, new release).

I don’t make a ton of money but I am continuing to try to go along with this passion.

37

Well good for you. Sorry that you can’t tell the difference between argument and name dropping, and probably not worth the time to try and convince you. But what the hell! What you call me dropping names are the the names of producers all making wine that were not only available but quite affordable for someone on a relatively low salary in the early 1990s. In fact, I was able to buy them, something that new collectors will not be able to do, unless they are making serious money. Most people are not, so they have to find substitutes, which wth few exceptions are not in the same class.

I would advise you to try to think before you post, it makes for a more coherent narrative.

38

It’s clear in Piedmont there has been significant price inflation, but most noticeably a few producers clustered at the high end. Monfortino went crazy with the 2010 vintage , $1300+, and Giuseppe Rinaldi in the U.S. market has gone haywire ($300+ for new release), B. Mascarello isn’t as bad if you could find it in stock (I bought 2013 vintage in NYC for $150, and from a source in Italy for $95) but there are a ton of great options <$100. There are a lot of great options clustered in the $50-70 range. Heck, there are very good wines <$40 in Barbaresco.

The unique situation in Italian wine FWIW is that given the price escalations in the U.S. market and the slow moving nature of Italian business, the price the U.S. consumer is paying is way out of line with the actual price of the wine at the producer (Conterno Monfortino I believe is ~250 EUR ex-cellar, Bartolo is ~55 EUR, G. Rinaldi is ~40 EUR!), and more $$ profit is being made in the distribution channel than by the producers themselves. That seems unsustainable.

Anyway, punchline is that there is plenty of Barolo beyond Monfortino, and plenty of profound Barolo (or more accurately, Barolo that will be profound in 20-30 years!) is available for <$100.

Personally, I look at the collecting styles of older collectors and wonder if it is sustainable. I see people with more wine in their cellars than they can possibly drink in their lifetimes, and I wonder what happens when that hits the market.

39

I would agree with the point with the point but I have a few comments that mitigate it:

  • This forum is bias toward super high end wines. There are plenty of excellent wines that have not increased in price with same inflated scale than top end Burg/Bx wines. A lot of buyers want the same vintages/producers and it is just not really rational.
  • The point made by Subu is so true: wine quality has gone up big time. Bordeaux in the 70s sucked. Burgundy had many many bad wines. Not anymore.
  • I would draw a line between Burgundy and Bordeaux for French wines. I don’t feel there is a shortage of inventory for Bx. Prices have jumped way above what people are willing to pay and the stocks are very high. The economy of Bordeaux wine is not great right now and at some point, the resellers will have to unload the inventory. In Burgundy, I think we are reaching a little bit the limit of what people are willing to pay but not yet: I am stuck by the amount of 2011, 2013 2014 and 2015 Burgundy offers that I receive everyday.
  • The argument of having auctions working really well and selling out can also be interpreted as why buying new releases at crazy prices whereas I can backfill cheaper. I could mean people are no longer willing to pay today’s price for wines that need to be aged 15-20 years [and buyers are getting old]
40

But your point is that you assume EVERYONE would want to collect these wines. My point was that no matter whether they were or weren’t affordable back in the day or are or aren’t now, it doesn’t matter, if people are not interested in them. And here’s the newsflash: most new wine collectors really aren’t interested in 1er Cru Bordeaux, Cult Cabs or Burgs one bit.

As pointed out many times before in this very thread, the world is full of spectacular wines that are ridiculously cheap now and it is very likely that people will lament in 20-30 years how no-one can afford them anymore, while they were dirt cheap back in the day. Of course there are no substitutes for the greatest of Burgundies outside Burgundy, but neither have I seen substitutes for the greatest of pre-WW2 Colares wines, or classic Taurasi wines or Juhfarks from Somló. You can find these wines for very affordable prices for now, but if suddenly winds change and wine trends start favor them instead, things might look very different in the future.