Im speculating. I know rohit said in the 200s range potentially.
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Iām not saying that this new project wonāt be worth whatever price they decide to release at but I really wonder if these business do any type of market research prior to release to gauge the current climate. I know Iāve said it as well as many others upthread but what makes this new project so much better than all of the other established projects. I know at a $200 or potentially more price point Iām definitely out
@Zachary_Mancini and I were deep in this exact conversation for a solid hour recently - whatās the new threshold weāre both willing to consider for new projects? Napaās not getting any cheaper - land, winemaking costs, everything is trending up.
From a 30,000-foot view, if youāre trying to break even, many of these new wineries have to release at $200+ just to start seeing any kind of return. Add in investor expectations, unpredictable setbacks when starting off (weather, supply chain, etc.), and itās easy to see why pricing keeps climbing.
I have immense respect for the winemaking industry and everyone involved - itās not a business Iād have the stamina for.
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I have visited Aerika and tasted the initial wines. It is a massive project and one that I am extremely excited about. The price is simply what it takes to do something of this scale and magnitude. I personally canāt justify paying the going rate for some of the new Napa projects that are more driven by consulting winemakers. I feel differently about projects like this where they are building a generational winery, doing all of the farming and winemaking. Of course I wish it was cheaper to do this but it simply is not.
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@kevin_s It was a great conversation. You said it better than i could have. Hard spot to be in for many new up and coming wineries.
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If i get to visit i truly hope i love the wines and they are in the low 200s and not high 200s or low 300s. I would be glad to be wrong. Imo, itās really hard to justify new projects coming out near 300 right away. Just a personal opinion. Especially in the current economic climate. Especially with so many good options out there for under 200. I really do hope im wrong. Sounds like an amazing project with great people and great wines.
Yeah, for an estate winery in an A+ location with A+ farming you pay the priceā¦ totally get that. Iām just not wild about subsidizing that by paying a top level price for non-estate fruit/wine while itās built outā¦ Would rather do futures or something like that if thereās a need for capital.
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