This is obviously not the first time this is being mentioned here, but the article provides some interesting farming costs that you might be interested in reading about.
And of course this problem is not happening just in Napa - I don’t think there’s a county in CA and perhaps OR and WA and even TX that has a home for all of their grapes this harvest . . .
From many of my farmer friends across the regions, it seems to be even worse in 2026 than it was 2025. At least that’s what I’m hearing on the ground. Doesn’t help now, but I do think it will be an uptick in 2027, so it’s just a game of survival for now.
Survival is certainly the name of the game, isn’t it? I do feel for the farmers out there - and Mother Nature is not making it any easier on them this year either . . .
My questions to growers: why bulldoze or rip out? Why not just neglect/lie fallow? Tax value of the vines?
Edit: probably should have read the article before asking. My question is answered within, though I’m not sure I’d ever trust the math by someone from McKinsey & Company.
Need to find productive use of the land. How many seasons can you go fallow if you can’t sell the grapes? There has to be some maintenance required to preserve for the future if that’s the goal. That equals cash out, no cash in
I guess I’m just curious how quickly these vineyards can flipped to productive uses. Pollinator habitat is pretty vague and doesn’t bring the $. The only angle I can see for immediate relief is a write down for tax purposes, but that would likely put any loan on the land in jeopardy.
Sure. There is some self serving component. But you can never eliminate competition. Someone else will fill the niche vacated. But price cuts won’t be as prevalent and whoever can sustain at the Costco price points will get the business.
Also, I am stunned by the quoted costs of vineyard management.
Sure, if your vineyard practices are being dictated by a fanatical “costs be damned, full speed ahead” winemaker with an unlimited budget, they can spiral.
My only comparison is not apples and oranges, more like apples and elephants, but for 15 years I owned a vineyard in Roussillon. The year before I sold it, I had 29 acres in production. Most of it was contiguous, with one 4 acre parcel less than half a mile away. Most of it was pretty hilly, with slopes up to 30 degrees. It was accessed from a well-maintained paved road. Planting densities were 1600/acre minimum up to over 2500.
My vineyard management costs, all in (including winter pruning, fertilizer and harvest) ran to less than $3000 per acre. The guy who managed the vineyard owned some vineyards of his own and managed a few others. Based on the quality of the wine, which of course came from the quality of the grapes, he was totally competent. Everybody I met in Roussillon who knew him had nothing but praise for his work, including competitors.
Besides a decline in vineyard prices, is there a niche here for vineyard management companies at a 50 - 80% reduction in costs?
Yes, I understand that costs in Napa for everything are astronomically higher than in Roussillon. Your entry-level gardener looking to upgrade to more specific skills cannot find cheap housing (or food, or transport) while they learn the trade.
France has ‘Lycees Viticole’… basically tech schools for everybody from vineyard owners sending their kids to get a base, to sons of immigrants, looking to develop a marketable skill like an electrician, except one that keeps them outdoors.
I would like to think there can be a solution that brings back good (not great) Napa wines that can be sold for twenty to fifty bucks, with everybody earning a living.
I’ll chime in from ground zero. Shatter has reduced Napa yields by 20% this year and that number could be low. Also, many vineyards have already been grubbed up. In almost every case they are vineyards with disease. In this market, those are the first ones winemakers stop buying fruit from.
The 2023 Dominus is at the local Costco for $235. No surprise they have ripped out a massive chunk of Napanook the last time I drove by. They ripped out almost all of their 80-acre purchase of the neighboring vineyard as well. A lot of vineyards, even really good ones, have been torn out. Phelps completely ripped out their best Insignia vineyard in Rutherford, maybe 25 acres worth, which had been planted just 14 years ago, or so. I saw Silver Oak Alexander Valley ripped out a large section too. No surprise that wineries with inventory are doing this now.
Combined, I suspect Napa production is down 30% this year. Could be as high as 35% from 2023. That is a lot. Oddly, there is so much shatter than fruit which was unsold a month ago is being bought up. One top vineyard I know in Rutherford had 12 tons for sale a few weeks back and a winemaker came and took it all in a day, likely because their hillside vineyard was going to be a low producer this year. So for at least 2026, I think the situation has moderately balanced out.
Also, in talking with many vintners about the ripped out blocks or whole vineyards, it seems none of them are in a hurry to replant at all. Why spend $50,000-60,000 per acre to replant, then another $25-30,000 per year for four years until the crop is in significant production when you don’t know if any buyers are on the horizon to purchase fruit? So they are letting it sit fallow. We could see major gaps of empty space in Napa vineyards for at least a few years to come while this all shakes out. A realtor told me last week she has 20 wineries who have told her they are for sale if someone privately comes to them with a reasonable offer. I did not ask who they are.
I think the market is taking care of this issue even faster than I thought it would and no one needs to enforce anything. Supply and demand curves left to their own devices know more about how to fix an economic situation that any person or group.
Why leave the vines if you’re not going to farm them? You’ll end up having to bulldoze them anyway and then have to wait a year to replant. There are so many vineyards in Sonoma County that have not been touched since last year. You can still see the dried up clusters hanging while all the new growth pops out. The County said they’re going to fine growers who do this a certain amount per acre. It can promote disease for neighboring properties crops. Plus it’s a freaking eyesore.
Well, that is what happens when you pull vineyards. But do understand that in many cases, these vineyards are being replanted. Not all of them, but some of them.
Yep, it certainly is challenging out there. And for a producer, like me that works with nontraditional varieties, it can become more challenging to source fruit.
A thing that’s mentioned in the original article and only glancingly by Blake Gray is that untended vineyards tend to be vectors for all sorts of disease, and so some wine producing regions (certainly Napa and Sonoma) levy fines if you just abandon the plants. Would not shock me if that would add up quickly and/or expose you for potential liability if your neighbors had a really bad mildew/botrytis/etc year.
