Was curious, from a purely financial perspective, what the trade-offs are.
So for fun this weekend, did a little modeling on how cellaring Jamet has worked out in terms of Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Multiple of Money (MoM). Figured I would share here as others might find interesting. This does not include the cost of storage or sales!
The vintage info is self-explanatory. The Price pb is the lowest cost you could pay in New York State for a 750ml bottle of that vintage. y/y price change is the difference in today’s price between consecutive vintages.
Grey tags highlight years where I had to expand to US bc not available in NY, “f” tag is when I had to expand to Europe bc not available in US
Made no adjustment for thin vintages (few or only 1 available) vs deep vintages
Things I thought about doing, but didn’t bc I was lazy, but might do later: MOIC, critic scores, format differences, volume discounts, opportunistic discounts, overlay vs equity index, adjusting for cellaring costs.
I plan to do this with some other wines that look different (less available, price points, regions).
English major here. I don’t understand what these numbers mean. Beyond the price goes up sometimes and not other times - like, philosophically, what does that mean to you?
gave claude the photo and the original post and it gave back this. pretty good:
This table shows how the prices of wines from the Jamet winery have changed over the years, specifically looking at how much money someone could have made by buying and holding onto those wines.
The “Price pb” column shows the release price per bottle for each year’s vintage (e.g., in 2020, a bottle cost $185).
The “y/y price change vs 2021” column compares the price of that vintage wine in 2021 to its original release price (e.g., a 2020 vintage bottle was 25% more expensive in 2021 than its $185 release price).
The “IRR” column calculates the annual return someone would have gotten if they bought that vintage when released and sold it in 2021 (e.g., buying 2020’s vintage in 2020 and selling in 2021 would give a 25% annual return).
The “mom” column shows how much the value increased overall from the original purchase price to the 2021 price (e.g., a 2020 vintage bottled costing $185 in 2021 was 1.25 times more valuable than the original cost).
So in simple terms, this analysis looks at how much profit someone could have made by buying and holding (or “cellaring”) these Jamet wines over different time periods based on the price increases over the years.
1998 and 1999 were both late released in 2017/2018/2019, I cannot remember exactly.
Both were trading above $350–/bottle pretty quickly and it looks like they are are still in the $450–/bottle range now.
It looks like they just released 2001 as I was offered some bottles this week with some 2021’s.
Ex-cellars pricing was a little over 100€/bottle.
The prices are the prices you would pay, today, buying this vintage from the cheapest retailor.
So, today you could buy the 1998 for $500. You could also buy the 1997 for $500. Since those prices are the same, there is no change from year to year.
