I think this captures what Adam has been alluding to about inflation. The gov’t over time has
changed what is included in the CPI so the charts below compare the current CPI to what the
CPI would be if still calculated as previously.
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Great. I had thought this thread hit rock bottom when we learned that living during the Depression wasn’t so bad because who wouldn’t prefer devastating deflation vs. 3-10% inflation? Then we got to hear the virtues of the gold standard.
And now we get to review a completely debunked alternate set of inflation statistics. But it must be true if it’s on the internet. Ugh.
Inflation is real. It’s hurting many people. Oddly enough, it’s not hurting certain low paid workers whose wage increases are inflationary (see McDonald’s workers, medical assistants, grape pickers).
Little of this has to do with wine sales. In my opinion, decreased demand much more reflects a shift to other recreational spending (travel, gambling, etc.), a correction from pandemic spending habits, and not replacing older wine buyers with enough younger ones. Combine with a reaction to unsustainable prices (not Adam’s issue), it’s going to be tough.
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If it’s any indication of who the wine industry thinks needs to participate more, the Colorado Association for Viticulture and Enology, CAVE, just put out a casting call for promotional videos seeking 20-30 year old individuals and couples.
Some people were born at the wrong time.
Wait…gold standard? I thought he was talking about the gold capsule standard! 
Usually that means (for many) a lower salary if in a lower cost of living market
Hearing that northern cali 2023 had a huge production. Feels like bad timing based on what you are saying?
I think those that have great brand strength will survive and be stronger on the other side. Issue I see, not that many have great brand strength.
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Yeah denver metro is -7.3% median, -8.2% average y/y. Here is the median data, you can see it is accelerating. Left is single family, right townhouse/condo
Apr-2023 $612,000 -7.3% $414,000 -6.8%
May-2023 $630,000 -3.1% $430,000 -1.4%
Jun-2023 $629,900 -2.7% $425,000 -3.4%
Jul-2023 $625,000 -0.9% $425,000 +3.7%
Aug-2023 $629,500 +1.9% $425,000 +4.9%
Sep-2023 $620,000 +2.5% $425,000 +2.4%
Oct-2023 $624,990 +4.3% $430,000 +3.6%
Nov-2023 $600,000 +2.3% $420,000 +2.4%
Dec-2023 $590,000 +2.3% $420,000 +2.4%
Jan-2024 $599,925 +5.3% $400,000 +0.3%
Feb-2024 $600,000 +3.4% $415,000 +1.2%
Mar-2024 $624,723 +4.1% $420,000 +1.2%
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But if you look at corporate American plus ups for higher cost areas they rarely cover the cost differences. That’s a big reason (among several) I never took a company move to California
Oregon also had a huge 2023 vintage. That comes as a relief to producers who have struggled with yields going back to 2020, but it will also put a lot more wine on the market.
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That’s what caught my eye as well. I believe individual numbers of that sort will often lead one to looking for some extraneous reason why things aren’t going well. Inflation or whatever macro headwinds there are won’t help but even during boom times and when overall wine sales are on the up, it’s a brutally tough business for most. When numbers are off by that much, as much as I don’t like to interject in this way, I would be looking for an exit strategy. To quote Howard Marks: “Experience is what you got when you didn’t get what you wanted.” That’s not such a bad thing. Experience is tremendously valuable provided one learns from it.
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That is not true. Lower income has been hit the hardest by inflation. Those who don’t own assets are farther away from ever owning them, and in many cases becoming delinquent on debts. Inflation is devastating to the poor, less so the rich.
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Their wages have increased faster than inflation but are still inadequate.
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My 20 year career has been in staffing/headhunting so I am somewhat familiar with rates and salaries across the country. It is painting too broad of a stroke to say jobs in larger markets don’t pay enough to balance it out - but I will say larger markets certainly have a larger percent of jobs - that is why they are larger markets. And the whole “remote work” thing was a COVID fad, I work in IT Staffing so you would think programmers could work from anywhere, but the big corporations are all back 2-3 days in the office and 2-3 days remote. Not that everyone has to work for a big company but just saying remote job opportunities for professionals are shrinking and major markets have more job opportunities.
It sounds like the rates for travel nursing and technologists are finally starting to drop to the point where they are starting to go back to full time jobs with benefits. At one point a lot of our nurses and techs were “travelers” but working at the same hospitals they were prior to signing travel contracts and making 2-3x the wages.
No need to waste your time. Peter clearly has this all figured out already because he watches the news and stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
Not all the big corporations says this 5 days a week remote worker for RTX who is only 40 minutes from the office.
The #1 place there has been hyperinflation is in wine prices.
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It’s fascinating to see the Boomers [and possibly even some Silents?] lecturing the Millennials [and possibly a tiny handful of Zoomers?] how to pull themselves up by the bootstraps.
Doubly fascinating when it’s intra-ethnic.
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Apparently, you’re not familiar with construction costs.