*legal cannabis 
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In my opinion, the answer is “it depends”. For people who are shopping in dispensaries, they tend to be long-term customers (a broad generalization that includes both medical and recreational). For the hemp drinks that are proliferating, that’s much more of a too-early-to-tell whether it’s a consumer fad like hard seltzer, or has real staying power as an adult beverage that has a material place in the market.
And for sure, I’m talking about cannabis from state-licensed sources.
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#neverleavingca 
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IMO there is not one factor but many. No doubt they are adding up to a decrease in popularity in the younger crowd for wine. I also believe some of it is self inflicted.
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Agreed. There are a lot of systematic issues, its not one easy fix.
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The biggest factor?
WAY too many producers which results in too many choices.
I’m all for variety, we are in a state of complete overkill/overload.
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there are a lot of producers but that isn’t the issue IMO. If I had two list them they’d be in no particular order;
A. Many other choices for premium beverages.
B. Price inflation. While there are many brands I feel like the middle of the market has disappeared.
C. Younger generation are less impressed with status.
D. They value experience over possessions .
E. Wine is kind of complicated.
I believe millennials because of the above are less likely to be attracted to fine wine.
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Yeah, the overabundance of SKUs has been a thing for a long time.
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I have been drinking and collecting wine for the last 40 years since I turned 20. My thoughts on your list are:
A. Many other choices for premium beverages.
- There always have been. When I got into wine, I was often torn about all the great imported beers and new craft beers that were easily available (mid-80s). There have always been great mixed drinks/spirits available.
B. Price inflation. While there are many brands I feel like the middle of the market has disappeared.
- I don’t know what you base this on. There is a sea of great wines available for under $50. Even under $30. As Ian said, WAY too many.
C. Younger generation are less impressed with status.
- I have never thought about wine as a status symbol. 99% of wines do not fall into this category. The argument is misleading. Equally misleading is to suggest that this generation is not impressed with status as anyone who goes on social media can see. They have their own stars and status symbols.
D. They value experience over possessions .
- So? I have always considered wine an experience, especially a social experience (you know, like this website?). That is why I found it so fascinating from the beginning. Collecting/possessing is only a convenience to foster new experiences.
E. Wine is kind of complicated.
- So which are they? Stupid or lazy? They value experience, but don’t want to put any effort into it? You’re a foodie, like to travel, dive deep into music? You learn about it. All of us learned about wine. Are you making the case that we have an ability that they lack?
Yep! Just buying a handful of Oregon producers exploded my cellar. There are over 1000 producers in Oregon. Now add the rest of N. America, all of Europe, and the southern hemisphere. THIS is truly overwhelming and I don’t know how they can all possible stay in business.
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Certainly the apparent breadth of choices is fallacious.
There are dozens of domestic Cabernets at the grocery store, but how differentiated are they? I’d wager most are following the same recipe of ripe fruit, prevalent oak flavor, neutralized tannins, and chemistry adjustment. The price points are mostly a function of input fruit quality and marketing.
At the higher levels, there are tons of producers, most of whom are producing micro-cuvee and single vineyard wines. Terroir is real, though there’s an argument to be made that blends of multiple sites often are better than the sum of their parts. And while different plots indeed produce different characteristics, that is a sort of exercise that has been proven over and over. It’s really a matter of establishing qualitative excellence paired with unique characteristics. If the high priced micro-cuvees are not selling, producers will consolidate and/or wines bottled by a given producer will consolidate.
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And that sums up the world of wine? That is like saying the current pop divas sum up the world of music.
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This is where wine will prosper. Unlike most things, it’s a possession until it becomes an experience.
The trend is clear: Far less wine will be consumed. Far more of it will be of high quality and price. I am talking about prosperous markets, not about the world at large.
I don’t remember when I did my first estimate, it was ~10 years ago.
There are at least one million different wines bottled for sale every year.
I’m inclined to say that there’s not room for them all.
But I can imagine a world where wine again becomes to a large extent local. And if prosperity and tourism still exist in that world, part of travel to different places will be so that people can eat foods that they cannot get at home (at least not at the same level of quality and freshness). And at the same time, they will drink wines that they cannot get at home (ditto).
Caveat: The wines had better be really good and really original.
I will post tomorrow about one of those wines I just enjoyed 4000 miles from its home.
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ok. My thoughts are based on my experiences in the restaurant business as a wine and spirits purchaser. At this point my store does more liquor sales than wine and the word Vine is in our name.
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I’d be surprised if anyone is interested in wine, looks at their grocery shelf and finds it overwhelming and turns away to the less confusing world of craft beer/non alcoholics/local marijuana dispensary as a way of making an easier choice
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I’m far less pessimistic today than I was maybe a year ago. We still haven’t even officially hit a recession yet (if you can believe that). Being a day trading tech gym bro, socialized on craft cocktails, cryptoing endlessly, influencing and having the perfect health and wellness partner - all that will go out the window when the investments tank and AI replaces your job. Then they’ll be crying into their wine glasses at home over re-heated canned chili, with stained teeth like the rest of us! 
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Very much agree when it comes to B and E.
We have lacked a mainstream educational platform for E, and lots of incorrect info gets spewed about all the time.
Not sure I’m following point A?
C I think is an unresolved hypothesis. I haven’t seen the evidence to make that assumption. All of the high fashion brands in America are still going strong, and it’s the younger groups that are driving that.
D while true, doesn’t mean they aren’t traveling some where AND enjoying good wine with it. I think those experiences are what are driving their wine consumption.
I agree with what you said, but I’m looking at it from more of a 50,000 foot view. The fact that Quilt/Prisoner/Caymus are somewhat interchangeable by the standard of what’s in the glass is less important than the fact that those SKUs, plus dozens more that are “better options” are surrounding it. And that’s just one small section of the store. I was in a wine store recently that had like 30 Sancerres on the shelf, and no dry Chenin. That’s overkill, and a disservice to the educated wine consumer.
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They are in fact traveling and absolutely enjoying good wine in the place that they can get it. I mostly know this because it’s one of the things I take care of for clients and I hear it from the drivers that I connect them with.
It goes to something I’ve said up thread (or in others) where millenials are absolutely traveling and want to experience what is local and what presents a true experience for them. What does this mean? It means a lot more travel to Austria because you can get out to the wine regions with a driver within an hour and taste amazing stuff. You can also dine in Vienna and have a wonderful experience. All of this for the cost of what could/would be a trip within the US. Same goes for Portugal, Spain, and emerging is England as London has been hard into English Fizz since I’ve been more actively going there since 2019.
Granted, how much of this is my own funneling ? Quite likely. But younger people are definitely buying wine and top wines, it’s just not how it’s been for what this forum generally concepts.
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FIFY
By point A I just mean between higher end choices in beer and spirits plus THC products a younger person can choose differently. When I was starting my journey in the 80’s wine was kind of it if you wanted a premium product.
Point C to me is a function of economics. Younger folk are carrying much higher debt burdens than when I was in my 20’s. It’s forcing people to be more frugal.
D. They certainly can. I meant more I wonder if the act of collecting will be as prominent . Doesn’t mean people won’t enjoy wine on vacations.