Agreed. The statistics here are way beyond anecdotal evidence and are unanimous.
There is not the same clarity in terms of industry income. The evidence here is more than anecdotal but far from conclusive, but it seems to point to an increase in overall spending worldwide.
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If that’s true, it needs a bold “for now” at the end. Rising total spend may just be a function of inflation. fewer bottles sold, but higher prices, so the revenue hasn’t dipped yet.
But the trend is heading into two separate headwinds: consumers are leaving the category and not being replaced, and those who remain are drinking less. That’s a compounding problem and the decline won’t be linear. These forces amplify each other, accelerating the drop.
You are right, and my name ain’t Pollyanna.
For a couple of centuries, the Appellation Bordeaux made a living off of the tiny number of great wines produced in the region, even though the typical wine was barely drinkable.
That ended 2 - 3 decades ago; the Appellation counted among the walking dead while political pressure and the French government kept it somewhat afloat. Now, 25,000 acres are ‘pffft’, with more to come.
That’s a third of the total French acreage currently being ripped out, most of the rest in Languedoc.
I get the ‘for now’. But I am far from sure that dollar volume will collapse.
Champagne is strong.
Burgundy is strong.
Neither may be that way in the long haul, as oceans of mediocre Champagne and ponds of mediocre Burgundy may dry up.
IMO ‘Napa Valley’ today is in the same position that ‘Bordeaux’ was 30 years ago. Lakes of mediocre wine are making a living from the Appellation, while quality is simply not where it needs to be to cover the inflated value of the vines and costs of production.
As in Bordeaux, there will be consolidation. The overall quality is not as low as basic Bordeaux was 30 years ago, so we may see some small producers survive… if they own their vineyards or if farmers selling grapes to them are forced to lower their prices, which seems to be occurring.
If you’re only making a few hundred or few thousand cases. If your costs are moderate. If you have cultivated a local clientele. If you price aggressively, you might make it.
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Just today Sean Sullivan’s Northwest Wine Report posted that Duckhorn was dropping 4 brands and closing 3 tasting rooms.
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I’ll be in Cincinnati this week and have a dinner, a tasting at a shop and a whiskey event. Maybe “Gordon” will be able to break away from his busy restaurant management job and join in.
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Anything ever come of this? Very strange . . .
It’s really not strange at all.
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perhaps i’m naive / confused, but is gordon not a real person? i don’t think he/they have posted since Jim’s post.
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Gordon always takes long breaks when challenged on anything.
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fascinating. had no idea / wasn’t paying close enough attention.
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He mostly posts in Politics so you would not see it, but the behavior is identical.
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But it seems unacceptable.
Yeah, but what is anyone going to do about it?
i find that journaling helps.
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People forget wine was on a slow steady decline pre-Covid. It took a pandemic to shock it back to life…and everyone guessed wrong that consumption would continue in a Covid-esque rate.
This is overall wine, some brands, segments, regions always buck the greater trend, but again, bad operations that offer poor value will go under, unfortunately some better operations that took the bait and overextended themselves or ramped up production will too.
Very few brands seem bulletproof, but brands like Bogle, that offer great value for $10-11 always do well regardless of economy. Allocated items for folks on this board will likely continue to sell out as there always seems to be a buyer.
My big question is how is wine going to recruit new consumers in the current environment where an RTD is so much easier to buy a 4-pack and know what you are getting vs. a bottle of wine amongst 100s or 1000s on a shelf.
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- Enforcement of the real name policy.
- Enforcement of ITB disclosure.
- An explanation of how a person with a real name of Gordon Fitz buys wine for a restaurant, takes his staff to industry wine tastings, but is not ITB.
Fitzgerald, Fitzpatrick, Fitzsimmons?
Go for it. I look forward to the results of your investigation.
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It’s obviously iffy, but I know a few restaurant owners and/or chefs who also buy wines for their restaurants. I don’t think it’s out of line for them to not say they are in the wine biz. For them, it’s another minor chore (even if they know and love the stuff).
I’m doing their staff meeting on Friday (at CES). I’m assuming the two KY reps will be there. I know them both and one of them really well. I’m getting to whatever bottom of this there is. I’m pretty sure Monte at CES when asked “do you know a Gordon Fitz that buys for a restaurant in KY?”
did not have the.thought “I do know a guy named Gordon Fitzgerald but not a Gordon Fitz so I’ll just say no.”
Again, maybe this is all about nothing but it seems weird and I’m allegedly getting to Ohio at some point today (not going great so far) and maybe I’ll figure something out.
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