Critical Week For 2015 Napa Cabernet

WINE TALK
1

Vintage 2015 is a year of small yields, small berries, and possibly, excellence. It’s an early year, with a couple of vineyards picked out already in August. But most winemakers have hung on, as the fruit quality still has room to move up. That is, until now.

Having tasted through almost 15 vineyards the last few days, I get the sense that most grapes feel 2-4 weeks from hitting their peak, using a regular development curve. A few days ago the ten day forecast predicted 85-92F in Napa, which is great, but all that has changed the last 48 hours and now we are entering a make-or-break week.

Today we hit 100F in Calistoga and 93F in Napa. This is now scheduled to be the coolest day of the next six. Temps are likely to hit 101-107F in the northern part of the valley and 94-101F in the southern part each of the next 5 days.

For the first time in a few years it really pays to be in the southern part of the valley. Above 95F and you start to have vines shut down and this can cause the fruit to shrivel as the vines try to protect the vine and canopy and is quite willing to let the fruit go south. So a lot of water went on vines up and down the valley today and yesterday. Some wineries might try to water every day for the next few days. I think almost all the water in winery ponds will be used by the end of the week to keep things going.

In my experience, though, this only helps vines for a couple of days and extended heat eventually wins out. In the upper half of the valley, as usual, grape flavor is further along than areas south of Oakville, so many wineries are set to pick as much as possible this coming week. The bad news is that the change in temps was not expected until the last day or two and with the three day weekend upon us, a lot of vineyard workers are already set to pick many places scheduled before we knew it was going to become an oven and it might not be easy to find enough workers to pull all the fruit people want to.

This means a lot of people who want to pick their fruit will simply have to ride this out and pick at the end of the week. Brix on the floor range from 23-25 already and you can add 2-3 brix to that number by Friday, easy.

Brix however, does not always mean… flavor. Just because the brix has spiked does not mean the grapes will taste great in the tank, it just means the grapes are dehydrating. Many people found this out the hard way in 2010. It is wholly possible to see 26-27 brix and weak flavor, but if the canopies give out, you simply have to pick as extended heat can raisin the grapes regardless of flavor. Vines don’t know we are trying to make wine!

So this is going to be a very important, and frankly, make-or-break week for Napa’s 2015 vintage. The worst heat spike I’ve experienced was 2010, where we had 3 days of 103-109F. This may or may not hit that level, but it is scheduled to last 5 days, which is longer than any such spike I have yet experienced. Not only is it hot, it is super dry.

Is this what 2003 was like? That was the hottest year in Napa, ever. This year has been less hot overall, but its heat in September and October that matters for quality. The vineyards that can make it through this week relatively unscathed might make great wines. But we won’t know what things look like until next weekend for those of us hoping to ride it out. I suspect if any rain or another heat spike is predicted after this, picking will commence 24/7.

Those with the coolest heads and good vineyard management will emerge victorious.

2

Thursday is set to be very very very very very busy for us. It will be at minimum a 16 hour work day.

3

06 was hot man. What would be the problem of picking now, before the crazy heat?

4

Unless your name is Raj Parr, if you pick now, the fruit has not achieved its flavor potential.

5

“The flavors haven’t developed”. That was the problem with all those old, classic, awful Heitz Martha’s, Stags Leap, Mayacamas, Diamond Creek, Phelps, etc.

6

Even those vineyards are not producing wine like they used to, and probably can’t, even if they made a concerted effort to replicate their successes from the late 60s and 70s. The climate is different, vines have been re-planted, production has been ramped up, etc. So many variables that went into making those stellar cellar dwellers.

7

Paul, you may very well be right. Just saying, they used to, but most producers and consumers have different expectations of the wines today, for better or worse. A few are still using the old-time model, notably Mayacamas, and doing a pretty good job, for my tastes [cheers.gif]

8

your sarcasm is far more evident than your point. flavor and ripeness are subjective. if you asked the winemakers of those wines, I’m sure they said they picked at optimum ripeness and flavor. some other winemakers today who make a richer style wine may disagree. and thats ok too.
different strokes.

9

I am certainly seeing sugars race ahead of ’ physiological ripeness ’ down here as well. Yeo, the sugars are getting g up there, but in certain varieties like Grenache, the skins are still overly bitter and tannic - signs to me that the grapes are not ready.

Yep, lot of water being applied in hopes of slowing down these sugar levels and ensuring that 'ripeness ’ is consistent.

Thus is not an easy task this year . . .

10

Looking back at weather patterns as long as they’ve been logged, Napa shows no real climate change. The way the vineyards process the weather has, though. Between articles I’ve read and people I’ve asked it seems like changes in trellising and pruning have been the major factors.

11

"“You know, a grower would like to have all his grapes in the barn by Labor Day, and I think they should hang on the vines until Christmas, so we’re always squabbling. But this is normal, nothing wrong with that.” — Joe Heitz, 1976

12

Thanks for the report, Roy. It must be maddening to have your livelihood – not to say the quality of your output – hanging on something so completely out of your control.

I say that, but I deal with life-tenure judges every day, so the same thing.

13



Historically it feels like this week is always hot. Where we are going, ie: next week, is what I am most interested in.

14

In this case, Adam, that quote supports Alan’s point. Growers were forcing earlier picks then; they’re certainly not now. If they had that power, perhaps there’d be more 76-style wine coming out of Napa.

Michael

15

actually, it completely contradicts it. joe heitz, maker of some of the best wines from that era, is saying he thinks the grapes should hang on the vines until christmas. rolleyes

16

Right, and that’s how Adam always uses it. But if you believe the wines were great, there’s no reason to believe they’d be better if he got what he wanted.

In fact, there’s reason to believe they’d be worse. Winemakers today do make pick decisions.

So if you believe today’s wines are worse, that quote gives you one explanation of why. The give and take with growers doesn’t exist in the same way.

Michael

17

actually, winemakers don’t entirely make pick decisions. on vineyards where there are multiple producers sourcing grapes, you get your pick time in early, or you get stuck with whatever slot is left… if that is before or after what you would like the pick to be, that is too bad. that requires making calculated judgments on where the grapes are now and where you think they are going to be in the coming weeks based on weather, current brix, etc. you can’t just show up at beckstoffer one morning, sample the grapes, and say, “they’re good… let’s get em loaded in the bins.”

18

Roy, will you update us on how things are going as the harvest progresses?

19

Sure, but probably not at the high end.

If you believe there’s still a push/pull with growers, then the quote doesn’t explain anything other than “same as it always was”.

My only point is that Heitz being forced to pick before he wanted (and making utterly classic wines) might mean that early picking is the way to go (for people who want Heitz-like wine).

Michael

20

LOL. Except he didn’t do that, and made some of the finest Napa wines ever made.