Bordeaux vintage 2025

WINE TALK
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There have already some indications that it was a hot year, after Lafleur left the Pomerol appellation citing among other things the heat of the 2025 growing season.I am sure we will see more reports, but I was struck by this comment after the start of white wine harvest at Chateau Carbonnieux.

“The harvest used to begin on September 15, you see, and today is August 19. This global warming phenomenon is now much more reminiscent of Mediterranean climates," Eric Perrin, owner of the Château de Carbonnieux.

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Curious how ‘25 compares to ‘22 weather wise. Anyone have insights? I’m a buyer of at least a little 2025 regardless for my kiddo’s birth year, but would be interested to see how the years compare nonetheless.

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Rained a bit yesterday. Rained more today. Will rain a bit tomorrow. Will be hot at the end of the week.

One producer we work with had 14% on his Merlot on 25 August.

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I was in Bordeaux for the whole of last week and the talk over there is that 2025 was as good as 2022.

However, everyone seemed very depressed about the pricing prospects. Most were saying that the 2025 vintage would have to go out en primeur at the same price as 2024s…for a wine which is as good as 2022s. One Chateau owner went even further as to say that prices should be even lower as a “cadeau” (gift) to customers that felt they had been ripped off in 2022 by overpaying relative to what they would be able to buy these wines at today.

Of course there were a couple fo producers who said they would try to increase prices a little relative to last year. But all of them said “negotiants” were being very strong opinionated about the impossibility of raising prices from 2024.

I guess we’ll see.

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I was sent this article by Neal Martin. Pretty dismal reading. Hopefully does not infringe any copyright.

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A good vintage at this past EP’s pricing would be great

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It’s interesting the mindset still seems to be that 2022 was appropriately priced and anything below that is a discount, rather than 2022 being overpriced in the circumstances.

Really the problem stems from 2021 which was overpriced for a mediocre vintage and then 2022 stepped up from there. 2021s are now being sold at discounts of 30%+ from release price, if they had started there and that had been the baseline to set 2022, I think things would look a lot more even now.

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Thanks Juan, appreciate the insight. Would have even more liked to hear comparisons to '16/19/20 but that didn’t ever seem to be in the cards based on the weather reports over the summer. Pricing relief is good though!

As I said, I’m likely a buyer in some amount as birthyear wines for my son, so love to hear “decent-to-good wine at good prices”! Particularly as I’m likely going to actually do some EP buying for the first time in order to get some larger formats etc.

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When back vintages are available for 20% or 30% LESS than their release prices, again, it completely undermines the primeur system, not least any financial return on buying the latest inconsistent vintage.

I mean this is the whole issue right here. Why would I pay MORE right now for a wine that I can’t even drink for a few years?

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It was an article that needed to be written. Port producers have been dealing with this for decade. Now that there is so much wine from “good” vintages, it is already happening but on a minor scale.

That being said, 2025 should be seen as an opportunity. It is a chance to reset, and bring the wines back as a viable option for the wine lover’s hard earned cash. Keep pricing the same or lower, and hopefully reboot the category.

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Agree. My recollection is 2024 ep was priced at or below pretty much all back vintage options, but the question was why do purchase if the back vintages are of higher quality. If 2025 is priced the same as '24 (i.e. lower or equal to back vintages) and is of similar or higher quality then I’ll probably be a buyer.

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What a brilliant article! Thanks for posting it Mark, and if @NealM happens to read this, congratulations!

This week, I received a direct offer to buy a case of 2024 EP from Sociando-Mallet. This is the first time ever I have received a direct offer from any château, since they are normally careful not to compete with négociants, although the price was so high anyway, at 26€, that I doubt anyone will mind. But clearly they must be feeling the pinch.

Nothing in the article comes as any great surprise and as you say Mark, it was about time that someone wrote it. The ostrich mentality, fuelled by some EP cheerleaders ITB, including on WB, has gone on far too long.

As Neal writes, it is of course a question of price. Fine Bordeaux will always find buyers at the right price, which of course means a huge reduction for 2025, irrespective of how “wonderful” it is, but for the numerous châteaux with large bank loans to repay, the pill will be hard to swallow. Anyway, that won’t solve the inventory problem.

I think that the real pressure will be on the négociants themselves. Unlike in the past, there has been very little massive discounting via Foires aux Vins and the like for several years now. As Neal writes, it’s true that tastes have changed, but again, at the right price, the wines would sell.

At one stage, all those gigantic warehouses will be full, or the financial pressure will reach a point where finally, someone loses their nerve, stops the false inventory value and starts selling at discounted prices. Then the dam will really break and we will at last see a market functioning properly, with values of previous vintages tumbling to the new levels - because let’s face it, a 30% drop of 2021 prices hasn’t exactly made them attractive, has it? At 70%, why not.

Bordeaux just has to come to terms with the fact that it’s in a market like any other product.

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Great article that reflects exactly the mood and the way of thinking that I perceived in Bordeaux.

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I am sure the subject of price comes up every year. I think we need to come back to 2019 prices for consumers to really show interest again, but I am sure others will feel differently, or not.

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Thanks for letting me know and your comments.
Cheers,
Neal

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Getting to that period where I get more active on WB again.

Anyone want to do some semi-humorous expectations?

Prediction number 1 - hype cycle has started, so wines will release at a small premium to 2024
Prediction number 2 - US demand will be lower with ongoing tariff uncertainty
Prediction number 3 - La Place will give US POTUS “The Wine Medal of Freedom and Peace” or something like that to try to encourage sales (like FIFA did)

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And maybe even not the final blend.
Back in the day a couple of decades ago futures were a lazy way to follow chateaux and build verticals at a small discount to later release prices. I stopped buying futures with 2005 because of (my) age but I think I’d have stopped any way on the new pricing.

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prediction 1 and 2 for sure

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Missed Neal’s article when first posted, but a very welcome piece of - remember that phrase? - consumer advocacy. And obviously good business advice to the chateaux at the same time, which I doubt they will take.

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dont worry, itll make no difference :smiley:

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