I’d say about two decades. With 2019 being the lone exception since then that I can recall.
The EP pricing for 2024 hints that it might happen again, but:
In all fairness, that is the purpose of buying EP. Else, with the exception of special formats, why not wait?
No, 2008 was another example, but only because the Chinese started buying. Before that 1995.
Good point. And 2005 if you bought from PC and actually received the wines. They had too good to be true pricing towards the end.
But those were exceptions.
// if I felt prices would go up, I’d be recommending people buy
prices wont go up, therefore, dont buy
I literally cant fathom how you think any of my posts have suggested prices will go up? 
I think i’ve been pretty clear that, I’m fairly confident prices will go down… and that rational buyers should hold off and wait…
But 2019 prices came back down, so even that was short lived.
Right, and the last vintage that did the 2003.
I wrote that incorrectly, sorry.
I meant to say that only if prices go up in a short period that you think it’s worth buying. Sorry!
the lady doth protest too much, methinks
It’s also easy to just buy then, get everything you want, and forget about it.
For the top buyers, they are way too busy to have to go shopping around later. This way it’s easy.
Last year for instance, I had one call each with my busiest clients to discuss what they wanted, and then as the wines came out, I secured everything. There were some things we cut back or didn’t buy if the price was a bit high, but they didn’t have to worry about anything.
During en primeur, yes. The person holding the wine is the person holding the risk. If prices aren’t likely to go up, then there’s no reward, so why carry the risk?
Best to wait for bottle scores and buy when it’s physical. This of course is exasperated in a hear with tariff risk etc.
For en primeur to be compelling, it needs to offer some kind of reward Vs buying the bottle in the shelf. Bottles selling out and being unavailable retail later is a reason. Large formats bottled to order is another reason. But for most transactions, pricing is the primary reason
And yes I will fully take your example of someone with more than enough money than squandering 20% during EP doesn’t impact them is a legitimate example. But I think as witnessed by this thread that pool decreases every year
There is such a small segment of wine in general though (not just Bordeaux) that is worth more at the moment you buy it. (if you get it at the right price, like DRC), and even the upside of DRC is coming down.
So do away with EP, use the UGC tastings as a way to hype the vintages (from bottle, not cask) and get consumers more interested in the vintage? I don’t mean to minimize the value of critics, but I think that we’ve gotten to a world where wine criticism is worth less and less with each passing year, and it doesn’t seem to be driving market demand for wines.
If Bordeaux wanted to be more consumer centric, then yes you would scrap EP, and sell the wines after bottling when people have had the chance to drink at UGC, and after critics do their bottle scores.
I would even go a bit further than that. Bigger chateau should follow the Latour model and just release when ready.
But we all know fundamentally en primeur is a game where chateau offload their risk to consumers. Unlike insurance though the chateau gets paid the premium rather than pay a premium.
No other risk game in the world has such crazy players (us the consumers) 
I certainly think there is more value for the Bordeaux houses to be speaking directly to the consumers. There is a huge messaging gap. For instance, Cantenac Brown and Giscours are making some huge strides, and both wines are an absolute steal for the money (2024 notwithstanding, since I didn’t taste them). I feel like it will be a decade before that message catches on. If they had a strong ground presence for a couple of years, that could start to change very quickly. Carmes Haut Brion has been making excellent wines for close to a decade, but I think their legend has finally hit in the last year, thanks to them being on the road and having consumers taste the wines. If Montrose and Pichon Lalande did the same, stocks would dry up pretty fast.
EP or no EP, I think the way to fix the demand is to have the houses get folks excited about the wines again. The elevation of quality in recent times has been exciting to see.
No dispute there. Too much supply and too little demand. Both sides need to give.
Well, that just means they have PLENTY of samples to use
Yes, I keep wondering how long it will be before publications begin to question the wisdom of sending one or sometimes two critics to spend time and money tasting EP. I don’t think critics are useless, far from it, but the market seems to have moved on from EP, as you say. I wonder if the budget used by publications on EP couldn’t be spent differently, since they’re not even tasting the finished product. I suppose EP report “clicks” will decide, but perhaps they could also just ask their subscribers with polls.
But at the same time, I wonder what the smaller châteaux would feel about EP disappearing. Of course their EP sales must be minimal, but those who are neither CBs nor in any other group must find it hard to get anyone to taste their wines young, so I imagine it would make their life even more difficult.
The easy fix tbh ka to make sure more of your wines are at various trade events. On discord we have a couple of chateau from Bordeaux and one of them has contributed some of their wine at a couple events they’ve attended, the other has said they’d contribute some bottles of a new wine they’re launching to an event in London sometime too. The Elkwold event I’ve posted about a couple of times has a couple of free bottles sent from one chateau.
Discord is relatively small fry with only about 1600 members ATM but things like this will definitely help them engage with a younger crowd!
A few voices on the net are not going to change the current format. The primeur is still big business, and in better years than 2024, is cash flow. Interest rates don’t help, as the less sold early the higher the carrying costs, and those rates have doubled in the last few years. Where I do see change is that chateaux and merchants needing to find a way of sharing the risk, not just financing, but also the ancillary costs of holding wine such as insurance and storage.
Oh I know, just saying, it’s nice to see some attempts of engagement and for those chateau it is helping a bit. But it doesn’t move the macroscopic dial.