This is my ‘value for money’ calculation. Basically, given all the wines released so far, you can create a predicter of score, given a price. Then we measure score_predicted against score_actual, and that is what we display. The highest numbers are the wines that ‘outperform’ most for their price. Note we dont separate right/left bank, sauternes/red/white, etc.
It’s no surprise, but its basically… Suduiraut, Coutet, Carmes, Montrose, Guiraud, Larcis Ducasse, BSB, SHL Blanc, Figeac, Pontet Canet
Again, the UK market and US the market could not be any more different.
You have the free trade market that we don’t have here. It’s really important for your context. Someone in the US market could be reading your advice for the UK market (which is probably going to prove out to be right), but that same effect won’t trickle to here.
I am only buying what I’m selling this year. I won’t have a single bottle left over for fear that by the time the wines get to the US market (which I’m think will be 2029 due to tariffs) that everyone will have lost interest in 2024 and be moving on to some other vintage since there is likely going to be a strong vintage between 2025 and 2028 by the time 2024s start hitting US shores.
We are about a week away from facing what could bury the US wine import business if Trump puts 50% tariffs in place.
Quick question, Ian, are you buying any 2024 for personal consumption? I take it from your comment of buying what you are selling is that you’re ordering to demand and your store won’t have any 2024 on the shelf?
In the UK, the 2021 Cheval Blanc is currently cheaper than the '24. I appreciate that comparing ep prices will produce a differing conclusion, but the only thing that really matters is current trading prices, not historic ep prices that fell on the secondary market. I don’t think Cheval Blanc is a bad buy my any means, but it’s not some crazy price that we should all be going mad for.
Compared to historical prices, this is clearly an amazing time to buy Bordeaux, but why bother with these '24s when recent, better reviewed vintages are available for either a discount or a minor premium and, in the US, no tariff fears. In that context the '24s needed a really big carrot of a price (compared to current prices for back vintages) to work, and in nearly all instances that just hasn’t happened
I think most people here appreciate that this is a tough downturn for the Bordelais to take. Fortunately most of them are owned by huge insurance companies and I have a hard time feeling bad for those. For the retailer like yourself dealing with a barrage of constant tariff threats, I have real sympathy.
If US economic conditions were different, I would have bought a couple of things, but I’m curbing my wine spending down significantly. We are curbing spending as a family though, and looking to save wherever we can.
The business I run works almost exclusively with secondary market data (save for wines that we offer that are new release). In the US, the best place to buy California wine is the secondary market is largely due to most wines selling at significant discounts (deeper discounts than Bordeaux!)
2024 Cheval Blanc came out 116E cheaper than 2021, so that’s a pretty mighty fall in price for the 2024, but also for the 2021 secondary market price.
I think one of the reasons why Bordeaux prices have been stagnant is that the supply is not depleting quickly enough. People aren’t drinking premium young Bordeaux at a fast enough pace to create higher demand.
Again, tariffs are driving that. I would have a different strategy if we weren’t living in fear of paying 25% more for our next phones (I have a wife and 2 teenagers), or 50% more for a Tuesday night bottle of Vire Clesse, or higher prices for more of the every day items we buy.
I will probably put a few things away for the company to use for events and wine dinners.
Keep in mind, I have to pay European storage for these too, so buying lots of extra supply is yet another variable for why we are watching what we spend.
I wish things were different. I’m paying huge amounts of money to air freight whatever I could this coming week before I basically stop buying overseas for the next 4 years. Forget EP (at least I have the advantage of the wines not being bottled), I’m about to stop offering all new release wines.
Things are about to get very bad for the global wine market next week. I know a lot of people are hoping that Trump will change his mind, but his comments yesterday were very final.
I wish times were different too! Knock another 20% off EP prices, get people excited again, cancel the tarriffs, and ideally change presidents. Would be far happier.
We had this exact same discussion last year in the 2023 en primeur thread about the time value of money (with basically the same participants). I’ll do my thing. They can do theirs.
The same discussion takes place every year in the German wine forum.
It has little to do with presidents.
The en primeur prices for 2024 are historically low.
And for a number of wines, the quality is just as outstanding as in other vintages.
If you don’t want to subscribe, just don’t.
America also has good wines.
So does Germany.
But neither has Bordeaux.
The first one is about the folks who do want to buy.
My criticism of Henry is that his ONLY premise is that prices will go up (meaning, when you take delivery of the wines). That’s just not the fate of young Bordeaux anymore. Hasn’t been that way for a long time.
