You’re wrong Brian. Consumers should instead benchmark against the prior vintages in which absolutely no one was excited by EP. Surely that will get consumers excited!
Prices aren’t going back there. So the inevitable is that folks who want 2019 pricing won’t buy 2023s.
Yes, that’s what I see many people saying about their willingness to buy 2023 Bdx.: if it’s not priced similarly to 2019, then they won’t buy. As much as such commentary may not be useful to you, it’s commentary that is appropriately-placed in a conversation about 2023 Bdx…
What is pricing going to be like for the 2023s?
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Did you clear this comment with Ian before posting, Daniel? Does it, indeed, meet his personal and supremely important threshold of universal importance such that you were allowed to post it? Does it adequately serve his needs? Congrats!!! 
I haven’t heard anyone say they won’t buy if it’s a penny more than 2019. And that’s certainly not what I’m saying. All I’m saying is 2019 EP is a data point. It’s not the only data point. It’s one data point.
This is a typo, right? Even the 2000 La Conseillante was well over $100 EP.
For 2019 EP I got some Lynch-Bages, Leoville Poyferre, Talbot, Rauzan-Segla and GPL.
You spoke well of the GPL, Jeff, and in light of that (and some other reviewers I rate, like Chris Kissack) it felt worth the £305/6 EP to me at the time. It still does, tho’ the price has dropped a lot since then - indeed a couple of months ago I picked a couple of cases at £250/6. But I see that as a pleasing bargain more than a reflection of a loss.
Slightly harder to be as sanguine on the 2019 Mouton-Rothschild I got. That’s taken a price battering. But as I plan to drink it (maybe not until 2035 as per your glowing review, Jeff) I’m not going to worry too much.
I also got some LLC, Palmer and Carmes HB in bottle and lower than EP price (mind you the LLC and Palmer have since dropped lower still).
I’ll likely buy a few specialty formats this coming EP. Maybe a smattering of other wines. But even if there are significant price cuts % compared to EP22, I wouldn’t be surprised if many became available cheaper in bottle a couple of years down the road. Indeed you put it succinctly yourself: I imagine many wines will be attractively priced, and based on past performance, most won’t buy.
I’m looking forward to your tasting notes this time round, as usual.
if what was posted above is true, 35% less than 2022, which is more than 2019.
Others have said it, that’s the issue, and why I’m frustrated.
Like I said, I can wax poetic about the prices I used to pay for wine, but it’s gone. And more importantly, never coming back.
Then you’ve skipped many posts above 
And all I’m saying is that the 2019 data point is aberration. Think of it as a mirage.
What price battering has it taken?
It came out at $400 USD, and is $575ish on W-S, and $600 all in at auction?
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Ah, large formats - I bought my first ever salmanazar at EP last year. And I pick up a few imperials most EPs.
21 Suduiraut! Yes indeed. 500 cases made in all, so I’m pleased to have 12 bottles of that in my cellar. And rarely for a Sauternes it’s not yet dropped below EP price.
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While a pandemic may not happen for awhile (I certainly hope), price corrections happen pretty regularly whether that’s 2008 or 2014 or 2019 or perhaps soon to be 2023.
EP benefitted from cash being absolutely trash for over a decade, but now that interest rates are non-negligible, it begs the question why would consumers park their cash for years just to absorb both counterparty risk and the sheer loss in opportunity cost. In many ways the risk to the EP system seems far more existential now than it did even in 2020.
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Sloppy writing on my part, forgive me. I got a case of 3 of the 2019 MR on BBR’s trading boards at £1359 and market price is now £1080. I did get 3 more at £1059 which somewhat reduces the overall loss. But it leads me to feel I may suck a bit at wine buying. Ah well.
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I’ve made several posts about this, but the concept en primeur is relatively useless now that most of the big houses are owned by extremely wealthy companies.
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For the record, the author of article that really hypercharged this discussion muses about a 2019 scenario for 2023: maybe not at that exact price level (there is real input inflation), but with how the EP unfolded. I think it’s fair for WBers to discuss their feelings about how they might purchase if a 2019-esque campaign unfolds.
Also, @Jeff_Leve, what did you do to Colin Hay? 
One factor at play is that wines 14% and over were not tarriff’d. I always suspected that some of the borderline wines might have been labeled higher than actual for 2019.
By the time 2020 EP rolled around, there was no taxation benefit to being above 14%.
I went in big on 2019 EP, as it seemed like a good bet. Covid strained restaurant and other buyers, tarriffs further strained demand (and it looked like tarriffs might be rolled back by the time the wine was sold), EP pricing had good value and reviews and scores were pretty positive (and seemed to get better over time).
Then when Costco started dropping 2019s (often lower than EP pricing), I bought more and filled in some gaps.
Now I might have too much 2019 and hope it will age well and fairly long. I nearly skipped 2020 and 2021. Jumping back in for 2022s because of the apparent quality, though pricing held me back from going deeper.
I expect to mostly skip 2023 (because I have enough Bordeaux for a while); though really good pricing might pull me back in a little. With excellent vintages in 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2022; i guess many customers have already stocked up on one or more of these vintages and have little use for a mediocre 2023.
If 2023 pricing is very competitive, I do wonder how that will impact existing supply of 2022 and 2021. I’m expecting 2023 to be a mediocre vintage. I guess ‘restaurant vintage’ may be the euphemism. A well priced 2023 should be downward pressure on 2022 and 2021. I’d like to fill in some gaps in 2022.
RE the free market comments I’ll have a proper dig around and speak to the insiders who passed the info along this evening, but as a starting point
Doesn’t really sound like a free market doesn’t?
I will agree with you Jeff in so far as one doesn’t have to play. It’s not a mandated or compulsory market, but that isn’t equivalent to a fully fair and free market under the hood. When merchants are told, for example, if they don’t take all of their 2012/2013 Latour because the allocations will be given to Asia instead (BBR were VERY clear about this when it was released), or threatened with “nuclear fire” when undercutting the price of Pontet Canet in 2010, or retailers will - when under stress - offer “secret bargains but you can’t tell anyone so our name stays out of it”, that’s not a free market. I can opt to be in, or out, but that’s about it.
This year I, like many en primeur buyers, will be options out.
We had this same discussion last season and towards the end I remember you clearly asking on here why most people were opting out. I feel your perspective on the behaviour of the average buyer isn’t really reflective of the actual behaviour of the average customer.
Dont get me wrong, I’m 100% sure there are people who will probably go decently deep this year EP, but I dont think it;'ll be a particularly wide section of the potential buyer market. As I posted above from that historical EP transaction data, we can see that even in the hottest EP year for more than a decade, it wasnt particularly strong compared to historic heights.
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I can’t speak for the American markets but the points here are very critical for anyone exposed to the UK markets. Note in the UK mouton released iirc at 798/3 or thereabouts
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Out of interest, I’m super keen to hear responses to this:
- What is your currently intended buying habit for 2023 EP?
- Will likely buy deeply no matter the price
- Will likely buy deeply if priced about 2019 secondary
- Will likely only buy to retain verticals
- Will buy a bit if well priced
- Unlikely to participate significantly unless priced below 2019 secondary
- Unlikely to participate at all
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