dont forget miracles can happen in barrels, such as acid suddenly appearing where there wasnt any before 
said as a jest, i dont knowjack about winemaking
I think quality matters most. No one is going to get excited about a mediocre vintage.
@HenryB appreciate the humor. Itās less in barrel these days, and there always seems to be a āprevailing windā that saves the harvest from rain/pests/mildew/hail/plague/frogs or something so that the vintage is āsavedā
Ironically though some of the best returns for EP purchasers in the last decade were 2013 and 2012 iirc?
I thought that was one of your charts? 
Either way, I think a vintage on quality with 2016 with prices lower than 2023 would net a really positive response.
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Liv ex one I reposted
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I donāt have the insider knowledge you have, but do you think itās in any way possible that would happen? I just canāt see them resisting the ability to set prices higher.
You mentioned earlier that a bad vintage would be a worst case outcome. Is there any world in which itās actually a good thing? A bad vintage could allow for many Chateaux who are fixated on not damaging the āpremiumā nature of their products to set prices much lower. In the way the W-S article noted that prices were unfortunately still tethered to the pricing strategies of 2021, wouldnāt a bad vintage be a reset and spur purchasing of the many quality vintages that still arenāt being purchased?
Presumably, a bad vintage allows more people to eat at the oversupply of other vintages that currently exist.
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The allure of 2019 was that it was a well-rated vintage, and it was cheaper than 2018. It also helped that it came out at a time when people had a lot of money and even more free time.
Now that folks have options for where to spend their money (not just on wine any more!), I think a great vintage at low prices would get people off the bench. Low quality vintages just arenāt going to bring people out. You can too easily back fill on Bordeaux. Just so Iām being clear, this is to get people to buy En Primeur. Not talking about buying overall.
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Thatās usually what happens. I know that 2014s were quick to get cleaned out when the 2017 EP campaign hit.
Most Bordeauxs do not sell out quickly, like some Burgundies do, that is correct. But, that does not mean buying en premier is about price speculation. Sometimes, someone wants a wine. Maybe it is from a producer someone has liked the wine in 20 different vintages. Maybe, it is because he had the wine last night from a different vintage and loved it, maybe it is because of great tastings notes here. The person intends to age and drink the wines, not flip it. He likes to buy the wine young and age it himself so he can sure about storage.
The person sees the wine being offered NOW at that seems good. Sure he could wait to buy it, in which case the price could go up or down. But, the price is decent now. Isnāt it waiting that is speculating on price.
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I would go absolutely bonkers buying 2016 quality at sub-2023 prices.
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What is interesting to me from this article is his comment regarding the quality of the vintage, calling this āthe worst campaign in 30 years for one of the five best vintagesā. Ranking 2023 amongst the best 5 vintages of the last 30 years is saying something, even accounting for annual vintage hyperbole.
It might be a local perspective about their own wine rather than 2023 as an absolute
True, or for the Pomerol region in general. Still an interesting perspective for me to read.
No idea on how 24 will turn out, but as a guess, due to one if the wettest vintages in history, it is not going to compete with 23, 22, 20, 19, 18, or 16.
Effective yields could be low. And it cost a lot more to produce difficult vintages than the easy years.
A weak vintage, which you seldom see anymore helps the market in the long run, as it increases interest in demand for backstock on the better years.
My prediction on the future of futures is that fewer wines will be able to be sold EP. The demand is not there. That will be coupled by the chateau holding back more stock until the wines are in bottle.
There will less, or no bundling from the chateau to the negociant of first, and second wines, or wines from different vineyards sharing the same owner. While that wonāt matter to you, it will relieve pressure on the negociant side.
Perhaps the chateau will be allowed to offer terms to all the negociants who in turn, can pass on more generous terns to merchants, who should the same to end users.
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100%. Cut the en primeur pretenseā¦
Sorry, Iām simple folk. Can you perhaps explain this better ?
As you highlight in your post - just scrap the en primeur system. Chateau dont - for the most part - need it for cashflow anymore, its just an excuse to release wine before its bottled, at full (or above) price.
You hit on every key point really - fewer wines will be sold during en primeur, more stock will get held back, etc.
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Iām a stickler for vintages. For me, my top years are 2000 and 2016, then itās a drop off to my next faves after that. Iām not sure 2023 has the overall quality to be in the top 5, but the top wines would certainly fall into the top 5.
Well said, and thatās unfortunate about 2024.
They all canāt be great.