Iāve bought a mix, 4 - 6 bottles of each, of Brane, Calon, Leoville Barton, Rauzan, LCHB and Pichon Baron. There are a couple of others I will also probably bite on. For me, again, itās largely due to availability for where I am. While I understand prices may remain static or decrease, Iām also considering the exchange canāt be better in 2024 than it is now. Iāve typically bought my futures from TW as I can pick them up and the 50% upfront is nice. With that said, they also make note in their terms that a currency fluctuation greater than 10% may result in price adjustments. Of course my second half of 2019 Bordeaux futures havenāt been adjusted down (Iām really just guessing that the Euro has lost 10% against the dollar as compared to two years ago) so I think an adjustment up would be unlikely as theyād lose a substantial number of customers. But, it still gave me pause so I purchased from another source where the prices are better than TW too. I do like 2014s quite a bit and the reviews, largely William Kelley, lead me to believe I will really like this vintage.
An article on the weather to date in Bordeaux. Interesting to see that because of the drought, there has been some softening on the irrigation rules. As some will no doubt point out, it is far too early to predict quality at the beginning of August, but this is not a positive for the growing cycle.
Wines like Cantemerle at $28 and Lafon Rochet at $36 were offered this morning. Hard to see the well priced standouts like these going much lower. OTOH I agree there seems to be a lot of wiggle room higher up the food chain where en primeur pricing seems aggressive.
Still the play for Bordeaux drinkers who enjoy mature wines and those of starting to be actuarially challenged, as it has been for a long time, is to backfill older vintages. Nothing new there either.
I had only been buying Bordeaux the last couple years and dabbled in futures here and there but not extensively. Just saw that one of the wine stores I purchase from, recently dropped the price of some of their 2021 Bordeaux pre-arrival futures. Has this happened before? Iām assuming this means the 2021 futures campaign isntā going too well?
From the filings of Farr Vintners, one of the UKās largest wine merchants
āOur sales of the 2021 vintage en primeur were down 51% on those of the 2020 vintage in the equivalent period, but this was to be expected as the quality of the vintage was below those of the previous 3 years, yet most release prices were too high.ā
Predictable, and I suspect this is only the first salvo.
Prices will continue to be soft with the strong possibility that they will come down still further. The hope that a new, expensive, highly regarded vintage if that is what 2022 will end up, usually results in backfilling of older vintages. But there is plenty to backfill., and I doubt I doubt 2021 will be one of those, when 2015, 2016, 2018, 219 and 2020 are still available. I know there are supporters of the vintage, and I am pretty sure I will be one of them after tasting the wines.
But, and itās a big but, unless the prices come down to below pre 2019 levels, I see no reason to rush out and buy. Ten years down the line, I will be able to buy the wines I suspect at below opening prices, and not have to bother with storage, insurance or opportunity cost.
If this is directed at me (unclear) then, Mark and I made a bet in the 2020 vintage that, for 5 selected wines, theyād be more expensive (my position) in 10 years time. I cant remember what the exact price increase was. Markās view was that theyād be available at, or below, release price.
I havent done an update on the bet for a while, it started off swinging in my direction but it may well have dampened with the recession
I would not take such a bet again in 2022, personally.