So Carlisle announced a few weeks ago that their latest release will be announced on July 16.
Now Bedrock has announced that their latest release will be announced on July 15.
Have these people no mercy?
I will let my banker know that there is trouble ahead.
On a related subject, has anyone heard about Carlisle’s plans for their future grapes? I recall that Carlisle’s last harvest was 2024. The 2025 harvest is coming up in a couple of months. Who will be taking on those grapes? I know that some of the Carlisle vineyards are owned, while others are under contract. But either way, I assume that someone will be stepping in. Do we know who? Enquiring minds want to know.
I’m on the Carlisle list and I don’t believe they have announced this yet. Perhaps it will be addressed by in their July 16 release letter. To my immediate knowledge they only own the Carlisle Vineyard, but manage a few more old vine vineyards that others own.
There will be 2024 wines from five vineyards-Carlisle (owned by Mike and Kendall), Mancini, Papera, Old Hill, and Papa’s Block. This was announced in the July 2024 letter.
1 Like
The intention for 2024 to be the last harvest was reported (as I recall) in various news articles and in a release letter. My question is what is going to happen to the 2025 harvest, particularly for the Carlisle vineyard.
I don’t know. Maybe Mike will address in the next release letter.
1 Like
Given the state of the industry I can’t see a reason for another winery to take the fruit.
1 Like
I was thinking the same thing and am really hoping I’m wrong.
I met with Mike a few weeks ago and they have no plans to make wine in 2025 but might make an exception for the Carlisle vineyard, which would be a few hundred cases.
Question to fans… what’s the most you would pay for the Carlisle Vineyard Zin if it was the only Carlisle wine available in their portfolio?
Love the Carlisle/ Carlise, but as much as i enjoy the wine and would like to support Mike…im probably not willing to pay too much more than the average prices of my other favorite producers (Bedrock, O&F, Hartford, etc). Call it a ceiling around $60 or so (give or take).
4 Likes
Go for it Roy! You know deep inside you’ve always wanted to make a Zin!!! I’m with Rich, probably $60 ceiling. I might go a little higher if there was video content through the making discussing the different techniques of making a Cabernet vs. Zinfandel.
3 Likes
So I was chatting with Mike and threw out the possibility of getting into their home vineyard this year. Nothing too far down the road as I would not know if it’s possible until closer to harvest. But the idea of having a “Roy Piper Carlisle Vineyard Zin” sounds like a gas. I really liked hanging with Mike and chatting Zin. I’ve always felt (and still do) that what many wine drinkers look for in Cab (big, lush fruit, smooth flavors, drink a bit earlier) can be found in great Zins from Carlisle and Bedrock much easier than you can find in Napa Cabs. But they get hung up on the fact it is “Zin.”
Here is the issue with me doing this, if it were even possible… I calculate that even if I get the fruit for a fair price, the all-in costs to make the wine might be $45. So if I sell it at $60 and 100% goes direct and I made 150 cases, my total profit will be just $27,000. If prices creep up to $50 (it’s a lot more expensive to make wine in Napa than Sonoma and I cannot travel back and forth every day for harvest), then the profits would only be $18,000. That’s a hard ask when I can make that profit with just 17 cases of Cab Franc made from down the road.
I can see the problems in NorCal with the Zin industry. Costs have gone up at least 33% the last 5 years but the willingness of Zin buyers to pay 33% more than five years ago is not really there. The significant drop in profit margin is squeezing the producers. The price to make Zin work for me at some minimum level from Sonoma would need to be $72. I think if great “Sonoma” Zins were $48 and SVDs $72, then producers would be doing much better. But the buying base is mostly not willing to go there, even though in my mind Zin over-delivers for even that price in the right hands.
From my perch in Napa Valley, what seems to be happening is that Napa has overproduced in the $175+ category (and overpriced) but the buyers for the “King of grapes” have more disposable income than many buyers of Zin, who are looking for more bang for the buck and maybe are more affected by economic changes? Few Zin buyers plan to hold their Zins a decade in the cellar. Also, my guess is most of the top Zin producers send 1/3 of their total production wholesale, most likely in the form of the regional blends (Sonoma, etc.) Those have probably been breaking even or losing money and now with many wholesalers reducing or eliminating anything but grocery store wines, this rug-pull has an outsized effect on Zin producers.
One thing that must be killing them is shipping costs. It costs me in 2025 $63 to ship a 3-pack to Texas. I only charge $40, so I eat $8 per bottle in potential profit right off the top. Shipping from Sonoma warehouses is probably cheaper by $10, but if a buyer of Zin buys 6 bottles at an average price of $50, that is $300. When that buyer sees $50 being added on for shipping, they add that in their head. And I bet many have pulled back because that cost is rising. If Zin producers ate $8 per bottle in shipping, their whole profit margin is wiped out.
It’s a tough bind!
10 Likes
I would disagree with this. You might be spot on for the buyers of sweet/$10 grocery store zins, but i don’t think that’s accurate for quality zinfandel like Carlisle. For the latter, I’d argue that many of those folks just really love zin, and probably buy other ‘high-end’ wines, including $300+ cabs. There’s just a bar that’s been set for zinfandel pricing so its REALLY hard to justify paying a ton more when there are so many great choices out there for $60 and under (looking at you Dark Matter Zinfandel, ha!).
I also STRONGLY disagree with this one. But I’m probably an extreme outlier, ha!
All that said…if you did start making Carlisle zin, I’d be thrilled! And honestly…There’s a good chance I’d also end up trying some of your cabs and chards (which i have never done). Maybe something to think about as i can see this potentially lifting the incremental sales of your ‘core’ wines 
1 Like
“Few Zin buyers” leaves plenty of room for crazy people like you and me.
3 Likes
Ha ha! Very, very true
I think you said you strongly disagree in your first sentence, and then you agreed with him in the second sentence.
1 Like
I’m curious, why are the costs that high? Given the pricing of Carlisle and other good (but not premium) zins in the region, it doesn’t seem like costs would be that high.
And especially if Carlisle is otherwise going to go unpicked or just bulked out, the price might be even lower going forward than it would have been in the recent past.
If the demand is as soft as you say, it just seems like the cost of the grapes would go down accordingly.
Thanks for any additional information. I hope those didn’t sound like criticisms, I just asked because I’m curious to understand better.
I would imagine that farming costs dictate that Mike sell the fruit at a price that pushes production costs in Napa to where Roy mentioned. I’ve heard from many growers that farming costs have risen drastically but the price per ton for fruit has been stagnant due to low demand. At this point it’s almost like they’re happy just having a contract because many vineyards are going unpicked and/or contracts are being cancelled.
So grape prices are stagnant (or, I expect, could drop), but the farming / harvest / winemaking costs are pushing the wine price above what the market is willing to pay?
I get it on one level, but given the number of good zins and other wines at prices lower than $60 around there, I still perceive a gap in my understanding of the situation.
Just to give one example, Turley sells a Bedrock Vineyard Zinfandel for around $42 I think. I haven’t had that one specifically (or don’t recall if I have), but that is a premium Sonoma vineyard, Turley is a premium zin maker I assume not cutting corners on vineyard and winemaking.
Now I don’t know if they’re making money on that bottling, either.
Turley isn’t making a Bedrock Zin this year. They are focusing on estate fruit only as a cost cutting measure. Carlisle isn’t making a Zin from Bedrock vineyard this year either obviously. Morgan was lucky to find somebody to buy the extra fruit with some of it going to Washington State of all places. Most growers aren’t so lucky.
2 Likes
Roy,
Thanks for taking the time to so clearly articulate a challenge that doesn’t have easy solutions. While I think you might be able to get $75 for 150 cases of Carlisle vineyard Zin, everything (weather, economy, ratings) would have to go right, and you would need a mailing list that includes high-end Zin consumers. That said, much revolves around your comment about getting the grapes “at a fair price.” That’s the right sentiment, but if it isn’t possible to profit when purchasing the grapes at the “fair” price, then it isn’t a “viable” price. What’s fair and what’s viable have to be in synch. So, the price of the grapes to you needs to come down to where you can sell the bottles for $50-$60. That might be untenable for the grower, but what’s their alternative? Some growers can make wine with their own grapes, and make a go of it if they are able to sell direct, but not in this case, as Mike is retiring. It is a difficult situation all around. Thanks again for your contributions to the board.
2 Likes