So it’s not sustainable because of a strong 3 year run? And it ends just as there is about to be 3 red hot vintages on the market? Oh, I get it, it’s b/c the “expert says so”…right?
Help?
Someone?
Buehler?
Kind of a strange article. He points to the average income of people coming for a day visit. Isn’t that kind of like just pointing out that incomes in the Bay Area are higher than many other areas of the country?
My wife and her girlfriends have already lined up their Fall spendathon in Napa. So they haven’t gotten the news yet that the party is over.
There’s a lot of wealthy Silicon Valley money that doesn’t seem to mind spending it up there.
My guess is that the travel consultant knows less about the vintages than about the economy. Many forecasters are predicting the bull market to soften over the next few months. If disposable income begins to dry up, it’s conceivable that visitor numbers for the Valley may decline. At the same time, you would also likely see that average person spend (the $480/person figure that’s quoted in the article) rise. Those less effected by an economic downturn would, most likely, be the wealthier tourists who already spend more than the average visitor.
^^This.
There was a period of time after the 2008 crash that even the wealthiest weren’t buying wine out of fear, however they were the first to pick-up old habits. In some ways, the top tier of the wine industry can actually benefit from tough economic times - wine is a less conspicuous form of consumption, versus buying a new Ferrari. You can walk into a restaurant and 99% of the other guests will have no clue whether that bottle in your hand is worth $50 or $5000.
The larger fear for Napa would be to somehow fall out of favor as THE wine destination in the US. Perception of worthiness is far more important for success with their target demographic.
To me this is the same as looking at a roulette table in a casino and seeing the last few roles have all been black so red must be coming next right? 
Outstanding point, but I would err on the side of Napa leading the charge BIG TIME in this category. They’ve invested ungodly amounts of money to keep the attraction of Napa alive and well. Much better than other parts.
Great analogy!
If the article had merit, and a leg to stand on, that’s great. I would have loved to have seen some data, or “hey, I called Auberge, Solage and Meadowood and there reservations are down XX% over the next 365 days compared to the last 365 days”. It takes a gut hunch (and a bad one at that too) and makes it sound like fact since he’s an “expert”. Given the vast majority of people who go to Napa, and the trio of great vintages on tap, I think you could easily see the trend continue.
Ah, the guy probably had a bad vacation to Napa or maybe bought some less-than-stellar cases of 2011. He figured he’d slam them, hoping that his position as a so-called expert would skew public perception negatively and he’d get even with the whole valley.
![[rofl.gif]](/uploads/db3686/original/2X/a/a7452fcd8e675af869f8da01174474a545b03944.gif "rofl"){kind=small}
Just a staff article from a local paper that takes a couple of quotes. Seems the consultant is just saying that extraordinary surges don’t often last & businesses should prepare accordingly. It definitely doesn’t say anything about Napa being less of a wine destination compared to other US spots.
Downtown Napa is better than ever so it makes sense less folks would want to go there.
Wait, that doesn’t make sense. Sorry, no coffee yet.
Nobody goes there any more. It’s too crowded.
- Yogi the wine guy