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Highly interesting. Seems to be more than a little self interest from multiple pot stirring parties.
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On Berserkers?
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So at the end of the day, good winemakers can make good wine by adapting to the vineyards, weather, and growing conditions that year, as they do every year. My big takeaway was statements about climate change and temp differences should factor in elevations, microclimates, and ocean access, amongst many things since any vineyard can defy the broader trend. Also that you can find delicate Pinot in California and robust Pinot in Oregon if that’s what you’re trying to make or the style you prefer. it seemed a very macro article, though for a world that is far more nuanced, but definitely fun to read
it also reminds me that I’ve got a 2017 Roy Piper waiting at my storage unit that I need to ship to me
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There is indeed gambling going on here!
We are coming off two very cool vintages in California (2023 and 2025). I’m sure people will be writing the opposite thinkpieces whenever the next multi-year drought kicks in.
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Good Day from Burgundy (they still make Pinot Noir here, also),
A few ancillary points before getting into the meat of the matter:
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Todd - thanks for the nice guy comment. I am not sure that getting paid $150 every month to write about wine and promising not to write about my wines is being a “master at self promotion.” Master at stupidity more likely.
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Chris, more thought went into the piece than to your post. Should you want to contribute something tangible to the conversation, I look forward to it.
I started visiting Oregon in 1993 - just briefly that year as the general manager at Lambert Bridge Winery in California had a vineyard in Sherwood, Oregon and LB got some of that fruit. I saw it more in 1994, and seduced by that relatively easy year, I jumped in for Siduri in 1995. Back then we were doing anything we could to get things ripe – especially with 1995 and 1997 (1996 was a little easier). The alcohol numbers that Marcus mentions – we would have killed for them. I remember touring Ken Wright and being told that they didn’t chaptalize, and I wondered what we were doing wrong. I then peaked into a back room and saw an entire pallet of sugar.
To get things ripe, vineyards moved to RG rootstock, jumped on the Dijon clone bandwagon in a huge way, thinned to extreme levels, and areas like the Red Hills became the place to go. That’s when I started getting fruit from Gary at Archery Summit and was fortunate to taste hundreds of different samples each year with Sam there – comparing these newer plantings to some older selections and other rootstocks. Little did we know how things were going to change.
Sugar ripeness now isn’t an issue. I’m surprised at the comments saying “look, my alcohols are still low.” If a place is getting sugar easily it isn’t hard to pick at lower potential alcohol levels. But that doesn’t tell you much about ripeness. How long did it take you to get there is a more relevant question.
Now, RG is out of favor, the Dijon clones are being replaced, yields are up which slows sugar accumulation, and as Vince mentions areas that were once too high to plant are now being planted and ripening. (nothing personal, Vince, but I don’t think your comments about Napa Cabernet and the heat are particularly applicable to what is happening on the California coast with Pinot Noir. And I have zero clue how the picnic comment applies).
Wineries and growers are trying to adapt to the changes that are occurring and I love this. We can’t control Mother Nature, just how we react to her.
But I can’t help but look at the numbers I’ve gathered from the McMinnville Weather Station and be concerned. As Vince mentions, the day length is the same now (it hasn’t changed) and August of 2000-2005 the average high temperature was 81.647 degrees. Two decades later from 2020-2025 that average high temperature was 84.353 degrees. In September, the difference was 73.455 degrees to 77.27 degrees. Add to this the predictions in the WW2100 study from Oregon State that show another 2-13 degrees of warming by 2100 and it concerns me.
So, yes, if I am going to be on the future of American Pinot Noir, I’d wager on areas where the Pacific Ocean plays an outsized influence (the Van Duzer Corridor seems more popular now than ever just for that reason). But all of California’s Coast Region has this cold body of water that is keeping the growing season more consistent than the changes we are seeing in Oregon.
By the way, if you want to bet against me, I’d argue that the last 25 years of changes are due to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. If that’s true, then I’ll be completely wrong and the Willamette will go back to planning Dijon clones on RG. Time will tell and I’ll probably be dead by then.
Off now to see if this continental climate can make any good Pinot Noir. Ha ha.
Adam Lee
Clarice Wine Company
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I think they got better and better because it got warmer, the clones and rootstocks got better and winemaking got better. In other words the same story as Napa and most other places the last 30 years. The thing about Eyrie, or what I used to remember that wine was like 15-20 years ago, and why that specific style is hard to make in California is that the soils have mouthfeel effects that go beyond just ripeness. Oregon Pinots still FEEL different than Cali Pinots. And within California, SRH and Occidental Pinots are nothing like each other (I’ve made both.) The worrying trend to me is that the WV has clearly gotten significantly warmer. I think so far at least, the changes in climate is affecting Oregon (and Washington) more than we thought it would. And although we have become warmer in Sonoma County in general, California is finding places for Pinot that are very chilly and probably, due to how the Pacific Ocean works, will stay that way for the foreseeable future. I can not see anything that warms up the SRH coming down the pike. And Freestone is already cooler than Oregon by leaps and bounds most of the time. Despite this, Cali’s Pinots won’t taste like Oregon. But the fact is that more and more Oregon Pinots are 14.5%+ and more are watered back. Twenty-five years ago they were Chaptelized.
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Tyler comes to mind as a high quality SRH producer in that style. Arcadian was a great one but they are no longer.
From Sonoma and/or Santa Cruz, Kutch, Arnot Roberts, Ceritas are in that spirit.
From the Sierra foothills, Clos Saron.
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Having made Pinot noir here in Oregon since 1985, it’s remarkable how climate change is altering things. It used to be we considered it an early vintage if we picked any Pn before the end of September. Now we are usually finished picking all of it by October.
Scary.
I heard “old-timers” complaining years ago how the Willamette Valley had gotten too warm for Pinot! Thought it was funny then…
That said it does seem like this is a golden age for Pn in the Valley. There are many, many really good Pinots being made.
Peter Rosback
Sineann
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Okay, so my information isn’t as out-of-date as I’d thought. All those names have been around for a long time and don’t meet the criteria - not even close! Some of them I like. But they don’t pull off what Oregon does.
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Keith
Have you had Racine Winery?
Adam Lee
I don’t have an explanation why a chilly climate would lend itself to making pinots that taste like Smuckers jam, but many seem to have managed it.
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Nope, but talk about an A-list team. I will look for a bottle to try. Thanks for the tip.
To be fair, there are plenty in Oregon who manage to do the same somehow.
Anyway, it seems clear that simply looking at graphs of “average daily maximum temperature” is insufficient to draw conclusions about the differences between these regions and their potential future.
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Adam this is very interesting and I suspect consistent with obs in Australian wine growing regions. Another phenomenon that we are seeing is that the rainfall patterns seem to be changing. The break tends to be later and teh rainfall is continuing further into Spring. Despite all of this the 2026 harvest will be recorded as one of the latest in history for many regions after a run of very early harvests.
Is California and Oregon witnessing changes to rainfall patterns.
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I knew I was wasting my time making California suggestions to you but I was bored and took the bait!
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Most of us, I think, will agree that the climate has been especially kind to Oregon for the last 15 years. The 2020 smoke was indirectly a result of climate change, but irrelevant to the discussion.
Adam is talking about comparisons going forward, and as Yogi is said to have said, “Predictions are really hard, especially about the future.”
If you take the average temperature changes as a linear pattern, there is cause for concern. OTOH, Adam and others here have pointed out compensating strategies in clonal selection, vineyard siting, and canopy management.
As a consumer, I’ve been overjoyed at the succession of wonderful vintages. I don’t expect a bit more warming to spoil my experience for as long as I’m able to participate. Someone with an investment horizon of 40+ years might be worried- or maybe not.
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Hey Adam,
Have a great day in Burgundy.
How many days do you spend in Oregon every year?
Seriously. If I wrote the hyper opinionated post you did about an area you spend nearly zero real time in, popping off ignorantly, you should absolutely tell me to do the same. And maybe I warrant that at times.
But your couple of weeks with Gary and Sam in the 90s while you were putting your heads together between corporate meetings in some other place does not make you an expert. Your tired concepts on RG may be new to non-industry people, but it’s not interesting in the real world anymore.
Be concerned for us, that’s nice. Then go make your wines and I’ll deal with your mythological heat, make my wines, and we can see. I pick at lower alcohols. You wonder about ripeness? Come taste the wines. Maybe they aren’t as purple as you like, but there’s no green either. My malics range 1.5-2.7 grams/liter the past few years.
And anytime you want you can come taste and see. Or you can look at critical reviews if you like.
Regardless, your throwing bullshit shade at a region you have no real depth of understanding of, referencing producers from two generations ago.
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Really? Maybe ask Adam to post the average for night time lows as well as his heat.
He’s seven times arms length from knowing anything.
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