AB InBev is selling off a bunch of their craft breweries, including 10 Barrel , Widmer, and Red Hook. I think this confirms that you should do exactly the opposite of whatever these guys do.
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The rumblings of a craft beer apocalypse have finally hit mainstream media and actual actions from players. I think the model of local breweries (which was the norm in the past) is sustainable but the regional/mid-tier are going to face hard times and a lot of them took on external money which is going to be a real pain point.
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Lot of breweries going to find out they couldn’t realistically have growth goals of 30-50 percent year after year but spent a lot of money like the music was never going to stop.
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There are a lot of breweries that have no real reason for existing, besides someone’s ego. After 16 years, I thought I was pretty knowledgeable about brewing, but I’ve learned more in the last year than in the previous 10. On the other hand, I still think I know more about the brewing business than most, and i would agree that the real risk in here is to “regional” (>20,000 bbls) breweries that are over-leveraged. If you don’t have ownership that really understands both the business and how to make great beer, it’s going to be a rough road.
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Hasn’t the writing been on the wall for a little bit? I remember Ballast Point selling for $1Billion to Constellation and a just a few years later they sold it for “less than” $100 million. That means Constellation took a hit of over $900 million to their books.
I hope their Modelo sales are strong… 
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Not surprising. Everyone knows scaling-up craft production is difficult, and then when corners start getting cut …
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i think its also the function of the economy slowing down, not many folks are willing to buy $3 beers just because its “craft”
Most craft drinkers are already not that stupid. By in large, craft drinkers know their beer, and will not buy crap, regardless of how it’s being marketed. This dynamic is evidenced at breweries throughout L.A., for example. It’s not true 100% of the time, but it’s true often enough to make for a general rule.
Yeah agree as well, i noticed most breweries have mostly evolved into destinations to hang out for the afternoon rather than to be known for their beers.
Yep, I’ve seen that, too. When that strategy is employed well, they can have some success despite having sub-excellent beer — all of the “exceptions” I can think about (exceptions to my general rule) follow this strategy.