Agree. A long tasting note of descriptors and a 90 point rating does not help me much as a little bit of excitement in a note.
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I order some Riesling from Germany and UK. It only works out for me because I ship pallet quantities of wine anyway. And even then I typically think hard before ordering Riesling over there. They are so robust and can handle a lot more abuse than Burgs so I donât worry as much about optimal provenance. And with shipping costing a flat rate per bottle it makes much more sense for 3 and 4 figure Burgs than $30 bottles. Even when I can save $10-15 per bottle over US pricing, itâs a wash and just more hassle.
One advantage is that you can often get larger quantities than I can get in the US. For 2019 Muller, I purchased 5 cases which was the exact quantity distributed for the entire state of GA. But even that has been tougher with 20 and 21. I was allocated a paltry amount of Dönnhoff and Schaefer from the UK.
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I will readily concede my reaction was harsh at first, and I certainly donât want to take the romance out of tasting notes. I should have been more specific about the exact language that was bothering me.
The âit canât be expensive enoughâ comment is what really got me and if I am alone in that, so be it.
I submitted my Mosel and Nahe auction bids today, and this year my total maximum bids from a $$ perspective are more than double what I have ever bid in 20 years, and the total number of bottles I bid on is about 50% less than usual.
In just 3-4 years it feels like the German auction scene has undergone the transformation that took 20 years in the broader markets for Bordeaux and Burgundy. At last yearâs auction I had more than one friend attending who spoke to the tensions in the room- sentiments not before seen in such measure- as certain things sold for astonishing prices while many very good wines did not. As well some producers going to great lengths to damper that excess enthusiasm- enthusiasm coming from investors and collectors instead of drinkers, and fighting a losing battle.
What is happening is inevitable- and that should not stop any of us from sharing our enthusiasm for the wines, and especially in a great vintage.
But at the same time, it would be nice to see the critics reign it in a bit and avoid comments like the one I have indicated above as well as this constant great vintage/greatest vintage hype that we are now seeing every year- a phenomenon well discussed at the start of this thread and which I will not reignite.
It is one thing for wines to gain in value and for a winemaker and a distribution network to be rewarded for their fine efforts. It is quite another when speculation and investment sets in. How many people are actually drinking Romanee-Conti these days? Leroy grand crus? Roumier Musigny? Surely a lot fewer than before. I know not many people are test driving 2016 Rousseau Chambertin because it turns up in every single auction despite production having been 20% of usual. When you get to a point where enough people are buying the wines to look cool or as investment in and of themselves- then the pricing is such that the wine itself is less and less ultimately used for its original purpose.
My math suggests Egon Muller Kabinett will top 400 Euro this year and that Kellerâs Kabinett will top 1,000. There is much speculation in Europe that Schafer-Frohlichâs Final GG will finish in the four digits, and I am increasingly fearful that Will Schaeferâs Spatlese will top 200 Euro. These are incredible numbers- especially when you consider where the numbers were just 4-5 years ago.
There is not much one person can do to prevent that happening- but for those who claim to represent the consumer (ie wine critics), it is certainly ideal to be mindful of comments that stimulate avarice and greed and which are not a direct reflection of the sensatory experience of a given wine, as well as to be mindful of making each new vintage sound better than the last- which has been happening in Germany ever since the 2015 vintage with the exception of 2016 (which oddly enough is turning out quite better than I originally expected, and it was a very good vintage at the outset.)
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Explained that way as to the comment regarding it canât be expensive enough, I agree.
Curious why you think the SchÀfer-Fröhlich Final will be four digits. I have tasted it and it is not much better, if any, than the regular Felseneck which was actually rated higher and readily available. Plus the Emrich-Schönleber Auf der Lay should be a great comp. And I think SchÀfer Fröhlich is historically undervalued at the auctions.
And yikes the Egon Kabinett at 400 Euros!
I do agree with you on the Keller and actually think it could be closer to 2k than 1k. It is a monumentally amazing wineâŠI am still thinking about it 2 months laterâŠ
When I put together my financial model for 2022, I did not include a vintage quality factor for the GGs since general word I was hearing is that they were of similar quality to 2020- which was a very good year for GGs. But for Schafer-Frohlich I had to consider they have never sent a GG to auction (there was a trocken way back- 2012 I think), plus their fan base is exceptionally enthusiastic. And to top it off, I have heard tale of several people being blown away by the wine. There is one TN for it on CT- but it is appended to a tasting note for the 2021 Felseneck GG, so you have to check there to see it.
And so for the most direct comp- I chose Wittmann Alte Borne. Similar high quality, similarly loyal fan bases- and most important, the quantities line up- 300 bottles in each case + a handful of magnums.
Alte Borne went for 330 Euro last year and 300 the year before. And so all considered I was estimating the S-F Final would come in at 575-650 per botte. But then recently a couple of different sources reported that some are being advised to expect four digits as they make bidding plans.
Auf der Lay is a tough one to predict. It took a massive jump last year on a volume basis- but much of that can surely be attributed to the transition from all mags to bottles and mags. WIth the addition of bottles, a highly valued wine becomes more attainable and usable- and so a disproportionate increase in price per volume can be expected. Same for the mags because now there are much fewer of them- but still many of us who have only mags from prior years and want to keep those verticals going.
I am keeping mum on my AdL predictions since I am going after several bottles and magnums, but I will say I do think it will hammer for less than Schafer-Frohlich and probably Alte Borne as well due to the sheer number of bottles available.
On Keller- I am really tempted to try that Kabinett! I do not buy the GGs because they are too big for me- but the way people go on about that Kab intrigues me.
I think the rising prices of German wines are in no small part due to the giant increase in enthusiasm for German wines by consumers and less so from an influx of speculators with Keller maybe being the singular exception to that.
There are also a lot more people bidding in the VDP auctions. I suspect in no small part due to folks like vom Boden helping make bidding in the auction easier and more accessible to folks. That also serves to raise prices.
Auction wines also often represent of what most producers deem to be the best wines of the vintage, and for the most part quantities are much less than standard cuvées, so higher prices make sense.
Itâs also worth highlighting that the proceeds of the auction wines go directly to producers, so itâs not like the rising prices are solely benefiting speculators. Those go to the producersâ pockets.
A final note on critics: I donât think itâs on critics to hold back their enthusiasm for a wine or vintage in order to prevent price increases. Itâs on them to share their honest thoughts on wines. If those are glowing with praise, so be it.
I too lament not being able to buy wines at the prices they previously were. Iâm equally frustrated at speculators and those that buy to make profit instead of enjoying them. But rising prices is what tends to happen when lots of people figure out how great some wines that are made in limited quantities are and start seeking them out. I think thatâs what weâre largely seeing with German wines
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I think the speculation and ability to profit is still pretty limitedâthe VDP auction wines in theory sell at close to FMV, and for non-auction wines, I havenât really seen any evidence that additional producers are joining the collectible producer group (itâs still just Muller and Kellerâwhile demand for Willi Schaefer and Wittman is up, the non-auction stuff is still pretty reasonable and you donât really see a secondary market yet). Vom Boden and Robert have done a good job in creating an enthusiastic (but relatively small) group of German wine fans in the US, and I think some of that interest translates to higher VDP auction results. But outside of that, German wine demand is still small, so even though non-auction German wine has seen a bit of an increase itâs still nothing compared the 50-100% increases in Burgundy over the past two years.
At this current stage I would agree with this assessment and also your specifc reasons. But the initial indicators of speculation are there- notably with Keller and Muller. One big sign of that is that these bottles are available on the secondary market, even a 3.0L of the Keller Kabinett. Normally auction wines disappear and are not readily available outside of Germany and a couple of other European countries. So it is interesting to see that the most in demand rarities already have a secondary market forming.
I am also surprised to some degree by the speed of price advancement and wondering when it will stop. The numbers suggest we still have upside- but we will have to see what happens in two weeks. Europe of course is facing serious issues with energy- but will that really affect the small crowd buying auction wines? The growing ease of access to US buyers and the 20% currency advantage we have this year versus the last 5 years will certainly be an enormous boost. Plus we are better insulated over here against many of the short term issues facing Europe.
At a certain point it has to become speculation/investment driven and it is hard to know where that point is. I think we are already there for two producers, with one more well on the way. And you really just need a few to drive the entire market and alter the dynamic.
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For sure. I noted Keller, but forgot about Muller. Those two producers definitely have speculator interest. And as you aptly pointed out, the fact some of these wines are available on the market shortly after the auction definitely points to that.
And once you have one or two âcultâ producers you tend to start to see speculators seek out the next one. Weâre not at Burgundy levels, but itâs certainly coming, the writing is on the wall and the money is starting to circle.
You canât be serious.
Prices are going to be very high at the auction this year. Justerinis just sent their bid list to clients with predicted prices and it isnât pretty. I donât think we will see S-F finale at anywhere close to 1000 or Keller close to 2000, but I think the spatlese from Willi Schaefer and Prum will be quite a bit higher than in the past.
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Are you objecting to me leaving out the importers that helped push riesling in the past or saying that German wine demand is still small?
The former
While they are relevant in terms of historical context and explain why we have passionate older riesling drinkers, I just donât think they are that relevant to this discussion of recent VDP auction results and current German wine growth generally, which I believe are fueled by a younger generation of wine drinkers (and I imagine Stephen probably has some of the best data on whether this is true), of which Vom Boden and Robert have had a significant influence.
Just so I understand what youâre saying before I reply, exactly what ages do you imagine this âyounger generationâ are who are supposely driving VDP auction results from the US due to the influence of Vom Boden and Robert?
The year after Stephen started working with
Emrich-Schönleber the auction prices shot up. I donât think it was a coincidence. And it cost me a lot money! The AdL was previously a steal.
If I had to put a rough number on it, Iâd say 25-40. I donât think they are the sole driver, but I think itâs a significant factor for why VDP auction results are outpacing non-auction German wine.
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You think Millennials in the US are driving the prices of the VDP auction.
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Just one data point, but Iâm not in that demographic any more. Also: I would never blame Vom Boden and Robert for my enthusiasm for German Riesling, but they certainly are among my more boisterous/helpful guides as Iâve wandered down this delicious path.