2008 Bdx futures master thread

I’m starting a “master thread” where we can talk about this so that we don’t pollute the board too much with daily threads (?). It looks like there will be at least a little bit of action this year compared to previous year: Latour was released at 140 euros + tax, therefore more in the “mortal realm” and today Leoville-Barton was released at 29 + tax, which definitely seems “reasonable”.

For reference here is the 2005 master thread with all release prices.

Already released:

  • Angelus @ 70
  • De Sales @ 9.90
  • Latour @ 140
  • Forts de Latour @ 48

Released today:

  • Leoville Barton @ 29
  • Haut Marbuzet @ 22

Gruaud Larose @ 24.75
Sarget @ 10.50

Leoville B @$45 beans at TCWC. It sad my vertical ended in 2005. The last time I paid $45 was in 02.

Another perspective - hardly a new one, and just one guy’s opinion. Still, he makes some good points.


Thanks for starting this, Guillaume. I will be keeping a close eye on this since it’s my son’s birthyear vintage.

Well, a case of Latour for $2100 ish sounds like a good plan for his birthyear, no?

I know it’s not necessarily useful to see base prices in euro but from what I’ve seen there’s a pretty direct relation with the price you’re going to see in the US. I’d say multiply the price by 1.3 (to take into account the FX rate) and then add 10% to 20% and it should give you a fair idea of the pricing in the US.

Newly released:

  • Coutet @ 33.50
  • Petit Mouton @ 43
  • Clerc Milon @ 24
  • d’Armailhac @ 22

EDIT: A few more comments:

  • re: the points brought by the guy that Steve quoted, they are well-known and everybody can make their own assessment of the situation.
  • the chateaux have jumpstarted the futures campaign this year (but I think I remember the trade tastings were earlier in previous years?)
  • in any case changes are underway with the FG. First of all they used to release at about the same time (within 1 or 2 days of each other) and with clear price fixing. In recent years this well-oiled scenario came to a halt, but the tradition of having the FG released last still going strong. This year however Latour was the 3rd wine released in the whole campaign. Hmm… does that tell us anything? :wink:
  • as I mentioned in other posts this is the first time since 2002 (when Parker simply didn’t show up) that the futures campaign starts with RP scores not available to the public. Praise (in the forms of points) from Parker was usually the highly favored marketing strategy in Bdx. Hmm… does that tell us anything, take two? :wink:
  • attendance is reportedly down 10%, I take this figure about the same as police counting people in a demonstration, you can expect the real number is down 20-30% at least. From 200 russians to 1, so I guess the wines will be marketed to us mere mortals and not to the I’ll-believe-it-when-I-see-it seemingly endless crowd of Russian and Chinese millionaires (or probably billionaires at 2005 prices). Sorry if my eyes stay dry on that one.
  • prices are definitely down, globally going back to the 2001 and 2004 “off-year” levels (a bit higher actually but barely higher if you account for inflation). Therefore 2008 goes back to the “off-year” baseline pricing, which was not the case with “off-year 2006” nor “off-year 2007”. Still, it’s not like the prices really crashed. It’s barely a correction at this point.

$189 USD Ch. Latour

just a guess here but i’d bet the next “Vintage Of The Century” occurs in Bordeaux relatively close to when our economy truly rebounds.

And here I was hoping it wouldn’t take that long [berserker.gif]

Leoville-Poyferre @ 29

Funny thing is, I was telling some friends yesterday that I would bite for 12 bottles if Leo-Poy was coming out under 25 (which I had hope it would, since LB was 27). Ah, the difference those 4 euros make :wink:

I actually think prices seem fair this year. I don’t know that people will run out to buy, but mainly because the future of retailers seems so unpredictable.

I know that Guillaume disagrees with me but since the futures are purchased in Euros, I believe that the Euro vs dollar will be 15- 20% lower than today within the next 12 months. That is still before release of the wines and at some point the dollar will drown in the Government’s dollar printing fiasco. There just might be a lower price of admission for these wines than today. I still plan to buy none.

15-20% would bring the dollar to the 1.05-1.10 bracket. In the next 12 months. Why not? If you remember the start of the discussion, it wasn’t 15-20% in 12 months. It was somewhere between “parity before summer” and “collapse of the euro before summer”. Sorry if I laughed a bit loud at those statements [rolleyes.gif] (and they weren’t yours, to clarify)

Lafite @ 148
Mounton @ 134
Rieussec @ 41
Duhart-Milon @ 25
Pavillon Rouge @ 29
Gazin @ 31
Evangile @ 68

Am I the only one suspecting that if the prices are this ‘low’ now, they will only go lower? With the market drying up, non-essential spending at a crawl compared to previous years, and an effort already by the Chateaus to lower prices, it speaks more of ‘prices will drop’ than ‘prices will increase’…no?

Todd… it depends :wink: Remember that prices go up easier and quicker than they go down, that’s for sure. Basically there will be a huge resistance against prices going down until the very last moment. Whether we reach that moment or not is still in the air. I see it a bit like a dam breaking - for the moment it still holds, when it breaks it will be for good. How long can the whole distribution channel (from chateaux to retailers with everything in between) can sit on wine? How long before the economy picks up again? Everybody has a different answer to these questions.

From a European (and especially French) point of view it still makes sense to buy futures at the source because then it’s literally direct from the producer to my cellar. In the US obviously this advantage is negated by the distance and distribution structure.

Wines are being released at a crazy pace.

Lynch Bages @ 35
Giscours @ 24.75
du Tetre @ 18.60
Echo de Lynch Bages @ 15.50 (new second wine from Lynch Bages)
Ormes de Pez @ 14

Somehow, prices here in the US seem to trickle more than they do in Europe.

Retailers probably want to take their time making up their mind, setting the price and so on.

EDIT: one more: Pichon Lalande @ 46