To all ITBers: How are your Bordeaux 2010 sales going?

Hello,

I recently had published a short news brief on “slow” sales of high-end (expensive) Bordeaux 2010s, based on quotes from several merchants.

But some were more cautiously optimistic than others.
For example, Christine Havens of Grand Vin Wine Merchants in Washington State (where I got a good deal on Yquem 1998 halves, by the way) said "We’re selling many of those ‘tried-and-true’ grands crus from the Left Bank such as Leoville Barton and Pontet Canet, but certainly seeing growing interest in First Growths, as well as the top wines of Pomerol and St. Emilion’ …
Although she also said that US consumers were “confused” with en primeur pricing that was higher than the 2009 vintage, she also said that “people understand that production was below 09 levels, and that the quality is certainly very real.”
And: “So, we’re seeing a sincere, growing interest in them [2010s]” and that “the other key factor is that many retailers in the states opted not to buy more than what they sold en primeur, so, there is also the possibility that demand for the top wines may outweigh supply.”
Possible? She said that “We will have a better idea by the spring of this year whether this is the case.”

Anyone have any thoughts?

Cheers,
Panos

Interesting that my local retailer chose not to do a 2010 futures campaign and is only carrying a very small offering of perhaps 7-8 chateaux. They have always done very large futures campaigns in the so-called big years, like 2009, 05, 03, 00 etc.

I’ve seen a huge drop off in bordeaux locally available, but that is over a larger time frame, like the last decade. In fact I probably see more of the “off” years now because retailers won’t put the requisite money behind the big names in big years or if they do it is on a much more limited basis for particular customers. But rather than create a demand I think it will just make people buy something else. Those truly interested in bdx will get it, but I suspect it will be a real boon to CA cab and all manner of other high dollar wines. Bdx is losing an entire generation of wine drinkers in the states I’d say. Will they pick them back up when they have more money and want to experience the old guard’s wine? I don’t know. And I say this as someone who things there are fine values in bdx, but that the pricing at the high end is absurd.

Yes, one.

Thanks Michael and Robert for the useful input.
Not sure what you mean, Mike …

Panos,

This is of course not directed at you, but what I see is a sales person trying to somehow give a positive spin on the facts, which are plain and simple: other than a handful of trophy wines, sales are appallingly bad and given the current global economies that’s hardly surprising.

Thanks Mike. I really did not get what you meant was the BS! Thanks for clarifying!
Also, you are based in the Netherlands… do you represent any US importer(s)?

Panos,

No, I don’t represent anyone who sells wine in any structural way and I never have, although I did try to broker a handful of deals in the past. Let me just say some were more successful than others and I shall not be trying that any time soon! I have my contacts on the other side of the pond however and they paint a different picture entirely.

I was talking to one of the sales/business guys at Premier Cru the other day (I am finally getting my pre-arrival 2006 Cote Rotie, only two years after I ordered it! Hooray!). I asked him about their 2010 Bordeaux futures prices, which have recently gone up to market levels after a long period where they were offering sale prices at 30-50 percent below the market. He said there was a ‘long trough’ in demand for 2010s during which the negociants were becoming extremely concerned about their backlogs, and that PC was able to get some fantastic deals during that time. But he said that recently demand has perked back up, the backlogs have been worked down, and the 2010 market was looking much stronger.

For whatever it’s worth…

It’s going to be an interesting vintage, for sure. I have talked to a couple retailers who aren’t buying much of the 2010 either, because the prices are much more than '09, which is considered pretty great as well - and there’s plenty of inventory around. 2011 is crap, and 2012 is looking like crap (I know several who normally go to Primeurs who aren’t going this year), so I’m sure 2010 will have its day, but it seems like retailers in the US aren’t rushing in for sure.

My apologies for the thread drift but Todd…

new avatar…my sides…

Is that real??

It is!!! I think it’s freakin’ hilarious - glad someone else does. I’m from WI, and have family in Sheboygan, so I just about lost it when I saw the wine. It’s $24.99 at Best Wines Online, and it’s made by Chris Berg. I really wanted to pick up a couple bottles to have around, but have no clue who knows about Sheboygan

The shop where I work probably sells 50 bottles of CA Cab, Merlot and blends for every one bottle of Bdx. In Bdx we have a selection of mostly “never heard of or seen that before” bottles. I’ve ask the distributors about names I am familiar with and the prices are exorbitant. Why bother, most customers will not pay the prices for the big names. I know there are values, but get little chance to try Bdx. I think distributors don’t want to sample bottles since Bdx sales suck anyway. My best sellers are a Kermit Lynch wine, 09 Chateau Aney in the mid $20’s and 10 Chartron La Fleur, owned by Kirwan for $13. I like un-spoofalated Bdx (the Ch. Aney is very good) and wish I could stock the shelves with pleasant ones in the $10 to $40 range. They require a hand sell, but given good juice at fair prices I can move them.

delivery in 2018
(ish)

Fortunately no rush on those babies

I think a lot of people were on the fence waiting for UGC and for indications on what 2012 would be like. With two mediocre vintages on the horizon, a great showing at UGC, and a 5-year high in the stock market, I see no reason to hold off on wines that haven’t increased in price. But when you see wines at the same quality level as they were in 2009 coming out at 30% more, that’s just f****** criminal; several I can think of still have cases of their 2009 sitting at the local shops. I hope they lose their shirts.

I agree with Michael. Bordeaux has lost an entire generation of customers. Speaking from the on premise side of things; I have no Bordeaux on the wine list. The last time I had a guest request one was over three YEARS ago.

I thought this would happen and was on the fence with my purchases. Given the broad range of notes I read from UGC, I decided not to buy 2010 because they were on sale, but to buy only after trying a select handful. I may pay more, but hopefully I will buy what I like. I used to be able to follow the maxim “buy producers” but even some favorites, like GPL, are getting close to $100. Buying in to big vintages is not getting easier. Fortunately, backfilling on prior, really strong vintages, is still decent. I just bought some 1989 Pichon Baron for about the price of the 2009s and 2010s. A no-brainer purchase to me.

I have been advising my clients to buy very selectively; but frankly, I keep harking back to the 2005s, which if you look at non-first growths is overall a better vintage, have five more years of bottle age, and can be had for the same price (or less) as 2010.

Thanks so much for all these replies, very useful indeed, seem to confirm a cautious outlook for 2010 for now at least for the big guns and in spite of two far weaker vintages (it seems also with 2012) following. Given the quality of 2010 wisest choice seems to be at Cru bourgeois level perhaps where prices have not jumped into stratosphere.
Side note: I am still waiting for 2008 futures from Premier Cru …