I have read over and over again, here that I should be careful rushing in and purchasing a lot of wine early in my taste development cycle, as almost inevitably its going to change. I have had several conversations with folks offline who have shared how they became interested, bought a ton of cali cabs etc, then later regretted doing so.
So my question is, how can i select wines I like now, with a reasonable certainty of being able to sell them in the future for my cost at least.
I would think this would limit me to some of the more well known producers, with a longer track record of producing highly rated wines, or at least highly sought after wines.
In american Pinot and higher end chards, what vinters do you think fit this critera?
Rivers-Marie and Rhys. Excellent wines and you will be able to sell them for at least your costs if you want to down the road. Rhys is not exactly typical Cali PN though, so I’d try before you buy - and a Rhys bottling, not an Alesia.
Mark,
I think the best bet is to simply spend more time tasting lots and buying to cellar sparingly. I realize this is beating the drum, and not answering the question you asked.
Thinking about trying to maintain value if and when you decide to sell the wines down the road is a tricky proposition. How many bottles would you factor on amassing that would need to be sold off? Does that amount of investment matter if you take a bath of 50%? I think that domestic wine proves the most difficult to see any return on at the time of auction, the few exceptional cult wines prove the rule. In general I’ve been able to find back vintages of washington and oregon wines at massive discounts compared to release prices. The established wineries in califonia have a slightly better track record, but the few I’ve sold for even money or a slight profit has more to do with purchasing under-value than appreciation.
Across the board it seems like wines in the more entry level price points hold value less well than higher end bottlings. I would assume anything purchased for less than $50 will be worth half at the time you decide to sell, and that’s most likely if you can find a buyer. Even above that random threshold I would narrow in on smaller production wines over larger production, as the scarcity would indicate better odds. The downside here with Cali is what you might have to pay to get those wines in the first place. Meaning, if you’re not on the list for the sought after, low production wines (Rhys and River-Marie are great examples, Marcassin etc) and have to pay a premium to acquire in the first place your likelihood of holding value is lower than someone purchasing direct.
I would repeat that the mantra of taking your time to amass a cellar is really the way to go, though not something I followed either… I think the plan to sell things you don’t like once you’ve realized the errors of some of the bottles will at best net 75% return compared to what you purchased for, the vast bulk will bring in far less than that…
Not sure over how long a period you are talking about retaining value. California Chardonnay as a category is not something that people characteristically buy for long aging, although of course there are individuals who enjoy aged Cali chards and individual wines that are more broadly regarded as aging candidates (e.g., Mayacamas). If you’re talking about being able to sell current new releases say 3-4 years from now, there may be plenty of good candidates (Aubert, Ramey, Patz & Hall, Stony Hill, Rudd, Kistler, Williams Selyem, Dehlinger is a non-exclusive list of names that come to mind). If you are talking about a 10-15 year timeframe, I’m afraid you would find a small market for all but a very few wines. For domestic pinot noir, I am less clear on the market, but I would guess around 8-10 years may be a dividing line after which there would not be broad demand for more than a few wines. I am sure someone could produce a relatively long list of hot names, especially from Sonoma and Willamette.
Another point if you are focused on retaining value is, well, points. You won’t find many folks around these parts who will advise you to look at professional reviews to decide whether YOU will like a wine, but it is still true that if you are trying to sell wine those reviews matter. All else being equal, higher points, particularly relative to other wines in the same category, are likely to bring a faster sale at a higher price. For chardonnay, Wine Advocate and Wine Spectator. For pinot noir, also look at Burghound.
I don’t understand… you say you keep hearing about how it’s wise to not buy tons of stuff while you’re still figuring out what you like lest you end up with cases of wine that you don’t care for much… then you ask how you can buy a lot of wine but avoid that by buying saleable stuff. I think I’m with Andrew above… I’d buy things you love sparingly vs buying things you can sell. The reason? Because you might not love the saleable stuff. I mean, what if you LOVE Pinot and Chard from Cali but not the superhigh scoring stuff? Should you ignore your palate and buy the scores? Of course not.
The golden rules are 1) Buy things that you love when you taste them and 2) Err on the low side… buy 6 bottles vs a case or 3 bottles vs 6 because there is ALWAYS more wine, esp from Cali where most vintages are good or better.
Do not buy because someone tells you ‘it will rock once it’s older’ or because a wine scored 99 points from some critic. Only buy wines that have characteristics that you love when you taste the wine. As a wine merchant and friend of mine keeps telling us, if it’s not there young, it won’t be there old.
I’d look critically at how much you’re drinking over a year and how much of that will come from the cellar. Say you drink 3 bottles a week. Call it 150 bottles a year. Now say about half of that is current release stuff that you’re trying out or just pizza wines that don’t come from the cellar. That leaves 75 bottles a year from the cellar. Keep the cellar to 5 years times 75 until you really feel your palate has stabilized a bit. Then extend that. Try dividing the cellar into wines that NEED more than 10 years and wines that you intend to drink in 5-7 or less and are cellaring to have them around too.
The bottom line here is that I think the people you hear about who have a lot of wine that they no longer like are people who don’t listen to their own palate when they buy, but rather buy based on what someone tells them they should like. If you follow your palate I think you’ll end up OK. You might decide a decade from now that Northern Rhones are really your thing but still like Cali Pinot. That’s fine of course - it’s not like we can only love one region.
I would not count on being able to sell Chardonnays as they get older. Esp., today, where California Chardonnay has a mediocre track record for aging and French Chardonnay is having huge issues with premox. Why are you buying California Chardonnays to age?
Bear in mind, too, that your tastes may not necessarily change (or perhaps only a little). While I venture into other regions, and sometimes buy into the hype of trying new wineries, Bedrock for example (yum), my true love remains Bordeaux and Rhone. I wish I would have acquired more Bordeaux earlier on, and not consumed some so fast, as I do not have the depth of mature collection that I would love to have. So I pick up odd bits here and there on CC. One thing I notice in Bordeaux with some pedigree, that sale prices typically are never below intial release prices. Perhaps that paradigm will change following the 2005 vintage where prices went bonkers, but then again, 2009 is even higher.
In chess there is a saying: “Never move a chess piece unless you know exactly why you are moving it.”. I think “collecting” wine has the same types of issues. My advice is to never “lay down” a wine unless you have a clear reason for doing so with that particular bottle. What is the utility of cellaring the wine? Do you like young wines but just want to protect it from heat If thats the case then you should only be buying wine as fast as you are drinking it anyway so the resale isn’t too much an issue as you should never have too much excess if you are a smart buyer. Are you cellering because you have discovered you have found certain producer’s wines improve with age? If you have drank widely enough that you have discovered your preferences to such specifity then it makes sense to buy what you like and not worry about resale value.
I find alot of people get into wine, see that their friends have a large and impressive collection and figure they are required to start a “collection” if thet are going to be into wine. But that is putting the cart before the horse. People should know why they are collecting specific bottles and not simply collect for its own sake. Often “collecting” is simply to impress friends or simply scratch the collecting impulse itch so many of us guys have. A very large amount of collecting is of this nature unfortunately. Its bad for the market and its bad for the “collector”. If Im honest with myself I fell into this trap a bit and Ive seen it with alot of friends. There is something about wine (perhaps its link to social status) that brings this out in people.
So its in everyone’s best interest to not actually collect for a few years until they really learn their own tastes. At this point a cellar is simply climate control and not a “collection”.
Thanks guys, I do hear you, and even understand your points.
Why am I collecting. My current theory is I see SOOOO many post here about how wines at release are not ready. The wines I am talking about are from many of the smaller mailing list only vinters (just check the wine talk board today for post about bedrock, ryhs, coplain etc). I see the only reasonable way to get these wines short of auction is to buy upon release (assuming I ever get on the mailing list) and then cellar for 3-7 years.
Thats my current motivation to collect.
As to why I picked just Pinot and Chard? Well after tasting what I consider to be a lot, thats the varieties both the wife and I keep coming back to. We do however drink others, mostly zin and cab, but we seem to be fine with buying available wines.
So my intent was to start with a focused approach of only two varieties from really only two regions (cali and NW) Try and really learn those regions and wines, try to have a cellar with some depth to it, instead of having (and I am just making up numbers) 200 wines (producers)_ I would instead collect say 20 producers but have most of their offerings for say a 5 year vertical at any given time.
Just my thoughts on why I wanted to start collecting.
I actually really do appreciate the advice, thats why I asked here, I want to learn, and not make mistakes others have already made.
That makes a lot of sense, but what I’d do is shorten your time horizon to 3-5 years, still cellar only the wines that knock your socks off. That means drinking on release… don’t cellar anything blind, i.e. without tasting it. If you get a 3 pack from a mailing list open one. It might not be ‘ready’ but with some decanting it will give you an idea of what it’s like. Now… do you LOVE it? Like it? Or is it only kind of OK? Adjust purchase next year based on that.
Don’t get caught in mailer hype either. Try everything. You can buy most mailer wines retail. They might be a bit more but rather than buying several bottles of 6 mailer wines each that sound interesting, buy a bottle from those 6 producers and try them. Buy the ones you love in the future…
Finally, don’t get too caught up in wines being ready. I bought into the idea of a peak time for wines and they’re just more complex than that. I do feel that a few years will let a wine settle into itself a bit and improve, but past that it’s very personal. I want my Burgs 15+… but I love the aromatics and don’t mind sacrificing the fresh fruit to get them. Others would want the fresh fruit and would sacrifice the aromatics I love.
Buy the wines you like the most and do not worry about it. Generally speaking with few exceptions, those are not the type of wines purchased for investment or resale.
I have to say, be careful about buying wine that you can re-sell later. You won’t know what will be popular, or out of fashion, in 10 years. For example, certain styles of Chardonnay are doing an about face in Napa. Kistler’s former massive oak/butter bombs are being replaced (at the same winery) for more mineral and acid driven chards. People who love the mineral/acid style will probably refrain from buying aged oak bombs. The market has all but dissipated. Similarly, Kosta Browne has a very solid following, and was touted as the next huge thing in california pinot noir. While they remain successful, there has been significant backlash against their style of oaked, huge, high alcohol, and hyper-extracted wines. The original owners sold out (their ownership interests). What was once a sure bet to turn a profit is now becoming far less of a sure thing.
I would reiterate some things that Rick has said over the past month: Taste tons, buy little. Don’t just go buy Rhys and Rivers-Marie because that’s what people talk about on these boards. Go take it in the shorts in the retail market, buy a few vintages of each, sit down, and see how you like it as it ages. See if that wine is something you really like. If so, buy a six pack and try some other producers. If you like it, and think it will re-sell, but don’t absolutely love it, don’t buy it. As your collection grows, you will appreciate your tasting experiences more than your potential to turn a $30 profit (or break even) on a bottle of wine that you shouldn’t have bought.
I would stress diversity in your cellar too. People get into trouble when they buy 1,000 bottles of Napa Cab. I love Napa Cab, amongst just about everything else. If I drank it every night, I would commit sepuku. When my Dad started collecting, I could see it happening. Napa cabs. Every night. Then he switched to Shiraz. Every night. Then he switched to you name it. Now, he rotates around and drinks pretty globally, and never really gets burnt out on anything in his rotation.
But, again, disregard retail ability. I really think you can avoid that issue if you avoid rushing into building a fully stocked cellar. A little at a time is a good idea if you are starting out. Taste before you buy, and taste as often as possible. What you like might change with exposure. There is a ton of great wine out there, so it’s worth trying a ton of it before you really commit.
I took the approach you are considering. I bought whatever I liked taking into consideration whether I felt the bottle would hold its value in case my tastes changed or I needed the money. Eight years later im still buying California and added cdp to my buy lists. My tastes haven’t moved much. The way I dealt with the whites issue was buying some german Rieslings and buying only chards I know im going to drink. After all with a cellar full of high end reds I can always trade for whites if I need them…
I would join the other people here who have said that these are bad categories to buy if you want to be able sell them later. And Cal chardonnays for the most part have a poor track record for aging, so there’s not much point in laying them away.
I am the poster child for why one should be careful in terms of building a collection. While I did not limit my initial buying to CA, I did concentrate much of my buying activity there because it was so covered by RMP and because I could over time get on many “exclusive” mailing lists.
I amassed a cellar that now numbers close to 6,000 bottles. Along the way, I discovered that I really didn’t care for most new world wines. I am now auctioning off more than 2,000 bottles of new world wines. When I count the cost to buy, ship and store the wines, I am losing money in almost every case. Only a handful of wines will yield a positive return, and even for those wines (Harlan, Sloan, Hundred Acre, etc.), it is only for select vintages.
My advice is go slow and don’t make the mistakes that I did.
I do love wines with age on them, but buy what you like and only cellar wines that you like now. Preferably, buy some older bottles from a great retailer (like Chambers St., Zachys, etc.) and taste them. Taste from different regions and countries. try both great and not so great vintages. Find out what you like.
I recently had a Rivers Marie at an offline tasting. This was a great experience, because I learned that I didn’t care for it one bit. As a result, I saved myself $500 or so for the cost of bringing two bottles of what I loved to the tasting (too bad one was corked and the other premoxed – but that is another issue related to cellaring wines).
I love wine and I love having wines that I have aged over time. However, wine is often like a dangerous woman. It is exciting at first, but there are many scary moments in between and in the end it will cost you a ton of money and some substantial heartache along the way. So if you do decide to date the dangerous woman, make sure you go slow at first and make sure that she excites you more than she scares you.
I’m with most everyone else. Buying wine so you can sell it later isn’t collecting, it’s flipping by any definition. You’re just talking about a longer time frame than Tyler Rico’s, where he almost has the wine sold before he buys it.
Taste, taste, taste and then taste some more. Don’t buy anything blind unless a) someone whose palate you trust implicity has tasted the wine and recommends it or b) you’ve had multiple previous vintages of the same wine. For me, one wine that falls into both categories - though I don’t know why I’m trusting Todd French’s palate - is Scherrer Old and Mature Vines zinfandel. One that falls into category “a” is Cabot Kimberly’s syrah. I’ve never had it but I just ordered some because there are so many people whose recommendations I value who have liked it.
And yeah, forget about California chardonnay if you’re even thinking you MIGHT sell it someday. Bad track record on that score.
I don’t have the answer but most people here are misunderstanding the question. He never mentioned he wanted to buy wine to resell. He is trying to hedge his bet if his palate shifts and would rather purchase wines that, in case this happens, will not be a bust if he chooses to sell them off. A far cry from flipping. Right Tyler?
Or better yet, buy from auction. I hear there’s a nice auction coming up on December 1st.
Seriously, almost all California wines can be found at auction for less than retail and/or mail list price, from the latest vintage to ones with some age on them. Mixed lots at live auctions can give you a good variety of items to taste through, or bid on internet auctions which will have smaller-sized lots or single bottles.
I got that. What I was cautioning against is buying a lot of wine early on period. You only need the hedge if you buy a ton of wine that, if your palate shifts, might not be what you like. You don’t really need that hedge if you only have a few cases of wine that you no longer like that much. Unless you really dislike it, you can just drink it or serve it at parties or even sell it at a loss.
However, the reason I pushed back on the formulation was that if you confine yourself to buying what can easily be resold you’re artificially constraining your wine explorations which is precisely what you should not do early on. My advice is pretty much “Taste widely, cellar little for the first few years and only cellar things you LOVE.” It’s unlikely that one will truly love a wine and then later hate it.
The way people end up with cellars full of wine that they really don’t like is usually because we follow a critic’s opinions or because we’re told that good wine to cellar is X (Napa Cab, Bordeaux, etc). Trust your palate. There’s a lot you will like. Avoid cellaring that. IF you find something that blows you away, cellar some regardless of what the aftermarket is, but do this sparingly. If you find yourself routinely blown away you’re not tasting widely enough.
![[wink.gif]](/uploads/db3686/original/2X/0/04707e6a7bbb03e0153e349d8a9270d30e1e9525.gif "wink"){kind=small}