The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

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Neal.Mollen
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#951 Post by Neal.Mollen » July 15th, 2020, 1:03 pm

Curtis Chen wrote:
July 14th, 2020, 2:03 pm
To my surprise, K&L just offered an OWC of Cantemerle halves for $168. Had to grab it.

One remaining: https://klwines.com/p/i?i=1488362&searc ... rchRank=23
Sold out. On waiting list. (BTW, this is a 12 bottle case, not the usual 24 bottle .375 case)
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Vince T
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#952 Post by Vince T » July 15th, 2020, 1:40 pm

Brent S wrote:
July 15th, 2020, 1:00 pm
So, how screwed are we if the government's newly proposed 100% tariffs are in place in 2 years when these wines land. These "it's $100 but it was $120 for the 2018 vintage" wines will turn into $200 wines and we will be kicking ourselves. Hopefully not......
Relatively few wines were under 14% alcohol in 2019, so I think the overall level of screwage is moderate.
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David Glasser
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#953 Post by David Glasser » July 15th, 2020, 2:22 pm

Vince T wrote:
July 15th, 2020, 1:40 pm
Brent S wrote:
July 15th, 2020, 1:00 pm
So, how screwed are we if the government's newly proposed 100% tariffs are in place in 2 years when these wines land. These "it's $100 but it was $120 for the 2018 vintage" wines will turn into $200 wines and we will be kicking ourselves. Hopefully not......
Relatively few wines were under 14% alcohol in 2019, so I think the overall level of screwage is moderate.
I thought wine was not currently on the list for the 100% tariffs? Even if it isn’t, that could change between now and when the wines enter the US. As could the 14% ABV limit or any of the other parameters. As could the importers' decisions on when to bring the wines in.

If there are significant tariffs at the time of importation affecting the wines you bought, how screwed you are depends on the fine print in your futures purchase contract. Does it allow you to back out? Under what conditions? Is there a cost for canceling the order? Are you obligated to take delivery and pay the tariffs? All or part of them?

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Brent S
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#954 Post by Brent S » July 15th, 2020, 3:06 pm

I can see them getting rid of the 14% and taxing everything. Let’s hope the political landscape is different in 2 years.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#955 Post by D@ve D y r 0 f f » July 16th, 2020, 4:17 pm

Re the current tariff situation, please see the linked post (and the rest of the recent posts in that thread), and please submit a comment to the USTR. The short answer is that the tariff on the 2019 Bdx could be anywhere from 0 to 100% by the time they are imported, both for the wines under 14% and for those over 14%. We are fighting on multiple fronts and we have to keep it up. We need to submit comments now. We will need to submit them again six months from now, and so on.

Let's keep up the fight! [berserker.gif]

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#956 Post by Paul @bbott » July 18th, 2020, 1:30 pm

Over in the UK, The Wine Society has just launched its EP offer, I will be buying most of my 2019s from them and will have the fun that everyone else has being enjoying for the last few weeks.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#957 Post by Curtis Chen » July 19th, 2020, 12:46 pm

Paul @bbott wrote:
July 18th, 2020, 1:30 pm
Over in the UK, The Wine Society has just launched its EP offer, I will be buying most of my 2019s from them and will have the fun that everyone else has being enjoying for the last few weeks.
Whatcha buying?
Add me on CellarTracker: C Chen

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#958 Post by JulianD » July 20th, 2020, 9:34 am

I find the disconnect from 18 —> 19 in terms of pricing fascinating. Since the 18s haven’t been released yet, it seems like many of the factors that contributed to the discount applied to the 19 vintage ‘should’ apply to the 18. But, the 18 EP having already concluded with pricing released a long time ago, I wonder if chateaus will continue to keep the prices high due to sticky pricing/not wanting to ‘screw over’ early buyers. Could end up with a lot of 18 on the shelves while everyone buys up the 19.
Last edited by JulianD on July 20th, 2020, 11:06 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#959 Post by Paul @bbott » July 20th, 2020, 10:07 am

I have been comparing critic scores to prices, Batailley, Phelan Ségur, Ferrière, Meyney and Les Ormes de Pez all come out well in the pounds per point analysis. Probably get 6 of each, plus some Cantemerle and Beaumont in375s while I wait for them to mature.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#960 Post by Mark Golodetz » July 20th, 2020, 10:51 am

JulianD wrote:
July 20th, 2020, 9:34 am
I find the disconnect from 18 —> 19 in terms of pricing fascinating. Since the 18s haven’t been released yet, it seems like many of the factors that contributed to the discount applied to the 19 vintage ‘should’ apply to the 18. But, the 18 EP having already conclude with pricing released a long time ago, I wonder if chateaus will continue to keep the prices high due to sticky pricing/not wanting to ‘screw over’ early buyers. Wonder if we end up with a lot of 18 on the shelves while everyone buys up the 19.
That would be my guess.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#961 Post by HenryB » July 20th, 2020, 1:25 pm

From what I've seen, it feels like a great vintage to buy Pauillac and Pomerol - I think it;'s a bit of a miss if you can get something like Clinet at original price and pass it up.


i havent fully considered 18 vs 19, but i think the problem you might find is that 19 has largely been snapped up - a lot of the in demand wines are sold out and will probably be until release, minimum. I wouldnt be surprised if 18 pricing comes down just a little bit, but more than anything I'd expect 19 to regress to the norm, rather than this represent a new level.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#962 Post by JonathanG » July 20th, 2020, 10:39 pm

I think you are right. I think the 2018's will prob come down a bit, but if the world gets back to normal by 2022, those that bought in EP will prob be pretty pleased with their pricing.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#963 Post by HenryB » July 20th, 2020, 11:24 pm

Yeah - when you have at least four or five vintages tradinig at the pre-2019 pricing norm, one vintage isn't going to dilute that enough tbh!

I do hope it does drive down some of the EP pricing longer term as we've had a few vintages of non-sell-out EPs, but I'd defer to an expert's insight on this rather than my own. I think overall in bottle pricing will stay fairly similar, but it does demonstrate the 'level' of potential trade Chateaus could do if they were more generous with their prices EP. And moving to something like a Palmer model where 50% EP 50% when ready is a good way to balance the pay off and customer loyalty?

I saw a post from a UK merchant recently that suggested the La Tour 'at prime' releases typically were not profitable (for the private buyer, you can pick it up on secondary a little less (5% or so)), so that'll be an interesting balance going forwards too


I'd be interested to see some informed opinions on this, but for me personally, Covid was almost a sort of excuse for these guys to reduce their EP pricing - even 18 being as good an alleged vintage as it was, 17 being overpriced for the quality for most parts - I think they were looking for an excuse to try to drive their price down.

I've got no problem buying EP, and did a substantial lot of purchasing this year, but barely bought anything (volume wise) last year because it didnt feel like a sensible price vs history. Same is true for 17, I think I bought maybe 12 or 18 bottles of wine in 2017 EP. As opposed to over 100 this year.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#964 Post by Nicholas C » August 1st, 2020, 10:27 am

Hi everyone. Ive been a silent guest here for a decade plus, but though would be time I started posting!
This year en primeur I went in on:

- LMHB
- Lafite
- Mouton
- Carruades
- Leoville Poyferre
- Lynch Bages
- Pontet-Canet
- Canon
- La Mondotte
- Calon Segur
- Brainaire-Ducru

Nearly all was in larger formats (mags & double mags).

Considering the quality of the vintage and the prices im thinking of loading up multi-case on 750ml's of some of the lesser growths and great value wine such as Cantemerle, Batailley, Frombage, Laroque etc. Thinking is that these would be great mid-week daily drink drinkers once mature.

I typically dont do that in En Primeur. Do you think its worth buying these this en primeur or buying in a couple of years once delivered?

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#965 Post by Sh@n A » August 1st, 2020, 10:42 am

Nicholas, what do you do with so many 3Ls? Just curious. I have debated going in for more 3Ls, but then convince myself mags are OK!
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#966 Post by Paul @bbott » August 1st, 2020, 1:22 pm

Nicholas, are there places near you where you can easily get those wines later? Or do you want them in anything other then standard bottle size? I like 375s and find it easier to find them now, so I stock up.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#967 Post by JonathanG » August 1st, 2020, 3:47 pm

Nicholas C wrote:
August 1st, 2020, 10:27 am
Hi everyone. Ive been a silent guest here for a decade plus, but though would be time I started posting!
This year en primeur I went in on:

- LMHB
- Lafite
- Mouton
- Carruades
- Leoville Poyferre
- Lynch Bages
- Pontet-Canet
- Canon
- La Mondotte
- Calon Segur
- Brainaire-Ducru

Nearly all was in larger formats (mags & double mags).

Considering the quality of the vintage and the prices im thinking of loading up multi-case on 750ml's of some of the lesser growths and great value wine such as Cantemerle, Batailley, Frombage, Laroque etc. Thinking is that these would be great mid-week daily drink drinkers once mature.

I typically dont do that in En Primeur. Do you think its worth buying these this en primeur or buying in a couple of years once delivered?
I voted with my wallet and bought several for midweek drinking, both in 375ml and 750ml. I only bought a handful of mags this year, I overdid the large format ordering last year...
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#968 Post by HenryB » August 2nd, 2020, 10:45 am

Nicholas C wrote:
August 1st, 2020, 10:27 am
Hi everyone. Ive been a silent guest here for a decade plus, but though would be time I started posting!
This year en primeur I went in on:

- LMHB
- Lafite
- Mouton
- Carruades
- Leoville Poyferre
- Lynch Bages
- Pontet-Canet
- Canon
- La Mondotte
- Calon Segur
- Brainaire-Ducru

Nearly all was in larger formats (mags & double mags).

Considering the quality of the vintage and the prices im thinking of loading up multi-case on 750ml's of some of the lesser growths and great value wine such as Cantemerle, Batailley, Frombage, Laroque etc. Thinking is that these would be great mid-week daily drink drinkers once mature

I typically dont do that in En Primeur. Do you think its worth buying these this en primeur or buying in a couple of years once delivered?
I'd suggest mos of the wines you've identified will be readily available post-EP at near, or at, the release price. I think it's well worth getting LMHB, Canon, Pontet, Mouton as a non-exhaustive list, but its important to separate out whats worth buying now vs readily available down the line - depending pn which tranche of pricing you got on those wines.


My normal EP purchases are a couple of 'investable' wines, and a few drinking ones - this year I pivoted to almost exclusively investment spec wines.
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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#969 Post by Nicholas C » August 5th, 2020, 9:06 pm

Sh@n A wrote:
August 1st, 2020, 10:42 am
Nicholas, what do you do with so many 3Ls? Just curious. I have debated going in for more 3Ls, but then convince myself mags are OK!
I have quite a large extended family so mainly open at those gatherings. Mags I find are good for a crowd of 2-4, but any larger and I find there isn't enough to go around and see how the wine develops over time.

I also try to buy en primeur in different formats as its always easy to find the 750s in the future

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#970 Post by Nicholas C » August 5th, 2020, 9:14 pm

Paul @bbott wrote:
August 1st, 2020, 1:22 pm
Nicholas, are there places near you where you can easily get those wines later? Or do you want them in anything other then standard bottle size? I like 375s and find it easier to find them now, so I stock up.
Paul, I could prob find them at the usual online larger retailers I expect, and they may show up at Costco if im lucky. Regarding the format I prob just want them in 750mls. Although tempted by mags but that defeats the purpose of having bottles for weekday drinkers.

Do we think the lesser growths etc and level of wines I mentioned (e.g. Cantemerle, Batailley, Frombage, Laroque) for this vintage will move much in price over next few years?

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#971 Post by Paul @bbott » August 5th, 2020, 10:27 pm

Nicolas, if you look at Livex they graph price movements over time. Some wines prices are related to quality, others such as Cantemerle to age and tick up at around 10 years. I assume this is a reflection on the fact that it is being drunk tastes good and people want to backfill. So to answer your question, you could have a few years to fill in the gaps. Personally I just love the buzz around the new vintage and would rather have the selection now. I also keep an eye on the in bottle reviews and use it as an excuse to buy some more. I put my order in yesterday, 36 bottles and 36 375s, all in the solid quality but good value range. I buy Cantemerle and Langoa most years as I like the style. This year I went for a selection of st Estèphe cru Bourgeois and some Ferrière which was rarely tasted but well rated by those who did. Could be a dark horse.

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Re: The 2019 Bordeaux are coming out.

#972 Post by Nicholas C » August 6th, 2020, 10:41 am

Paul @bbott wrote:
August 5th, 2020, 10:27 pm
Nicolas, if you look at Livex they graph price movements over time. Some wines prices are related to quality, others such as Cantemerle to age and tick up at around 10 years. I assume this is a reflection on the fact that it is being drunk tastes good and people want to backfill. So to answer your question, you could have a few years to fill in the gaps. Personally I just love the buzz around the new vintage and would rather have the selection now. I also keep an eye on the in bottle reviews and use it as an excuse to buy some more. I put my order in yesterday, 36 bottles and 36 375s, all in the solid quality but good value range. I buy Cantemerle and Langoa most years as I like the style. This year I went for a selection of st Estèphe cru Bourgeois and some Ferrière which was rarely tasted but well rated by those who did. Could be a dark horse.
Paul - How do you see the pricing graph. Back around 11 years ago I had a personal consumer level Livex account, but I just checked and I can only seem to see commercial accounts that start at $260 per month? Has their business model evolved?

Will check out Ferrière! Thanks

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