"The writing on the wall" - Bordeaux 2009 Futures

Vinfolio is just a simple reminder how fragile the economy is.

To be safe…I bought one case of 2008 futures and from 4 different retailers.

I don’t care how good 2009 is - vintage of the century; it could be Bordeaux’s last for all I care…you better be wary of playing the game…

There is already hype for 2009…This spring will be fun to watch - Suckers be forewarned…Bordeaux bubble is here…

Scott

Really? What about 2008? It sure seemed like he was trying to ‘save’ that vintage.

How about the reaction of the market to his upcoming 2007 scores? Again, looks like he is trying to help the industry avert a real bloodbath with that upcoming train wreck as well.

I think enough people will hype 2009 that the pressure will actually be off of him a little bit for once.

Just my two pence (that’s right – 60% better!)

Who cares about Parker…

Anyone ordering futures over the last year or for the next year or so is taking a risk given that the money basically disappears if the merchant goes away and with the economy flat or growing slowly I can’t see prices rising much with the exception of some coveted producers. Given real risk and no countervailing reward in the form of locking in prices significantly lower than the release price I can’t see a reason to order futures vs waiting on release.

Not to mention the fact you can buy ready to drink wines from earlier great vintages for less than futures prices.

Well, clearly anyone paying attention is aware of the increased risk of non-delivery of futures. Plus, you have the pricing problem leftover from the 2005 vintage.

Ultimately, at least some people will buy 2009 futures IF the scores are high enough and IF they perceive the EP prices to be low enough vs. expected prices on release that waiting two years or so to get the wine is worth the investment and risk.

Bruce

Are we including all Bordeaux wines from 2009 with these predictions or just the cherries?

Where’s Leve? After all, he is the authority on this issue.

Agreed…Parker can try to show his “strength” in a more controversial arena. 2009 Bordeaux does not appear to be that. Everyone is hailing it a great vintage. Leve was the first though.

FYI, I am saying it now…2010…best vintage ever…in Long Island…

I nailed it!

One more datapoint for Bordeaux 2009:
Last night I had a dream that Chateau Figeac was marketing their 2009 on the strength of the new winemaker: Jerry Brown. Yes, the one who is the current attorney general of California, former tough-guy mayor of Oakland and Governor Moonbeam himself.

In the dream I passed…

In my opinion, demand for 2009 Bordeaux will be strong.

People with money buy great growth futures.
And people with money may have less of it since the financial crisis, but there’s still a LOT of disposable income out there.

Even if that is not true for little people like me.

Best regards,
Alex R.

I am not going to start discussing this again because every year is the same old crap but let me quickly summarize again: anyone willing to give Bordeaux tons of money TWO YEARS IN ADVANCE, in this kind of environment, must have his/her examined, no matter how great the vintage is. Even in good times, the current futures system is hardly worth the trouble but now…forget it. Once again, I will buy NONE and I will offer NONE. Am I afraid I won’t get wine two years later? Shit no. Will it be more expensive? Maybe, but likely not except for 3-4 wines.

Max,

What counts for Bordeaux is whether your viewpoint is typical or not.

In any event, the Bordeaux system is hardly new.

Assuming that you have bought futures in the past (this is not clear from your post) and are dropping out then, clearly, you would need to be replaced by someone else, or the Bordelais will need to rethink their pricing.

I’m willing to bet that there is always a ready and willing market for a new vintage with a fine reputation, regardless of an ailing economy and any stocks already in the pipeline.

We should know one way or the other by the end of June.

I, too, find it hard to keep up with the pricing. I was only pointing out that there are plenty of people out there who find it much less hard. Also, many people want to keep wine from a particular vintage (a wedding year, birth year, etc.), and others who want to follow the wine from the time it’s in bottle rather than buying older vintages, ie they want to “grow old” with the wine.

Where we agree is that a certain amount of irrationality comes into play. But isn’t that the same with all luxury products? Great growth Bordeaux is in undoubtedly in that category.

I know, some consumers grumble and say they will turn to wines from other regions.
Bordeaux is banking (literally) that their are no substitues for the likes of Ch. Yquem and Ch. Margaux.
I tend to espouse that point of view .

However, please, let’s not lose sight of the fact that these great growths represent less than 5% of production. References to “Bordeaux” need to be qualified.

Best regards,
Alex R.

D’Yquem is probably one of the most overpriced/hyped wines on the planet. It’s a great wine, without a doubt, but it is hardly without peer among sweet wines. I am sure however that it outperforms when the label is in-view.

Jim,

Among French wines, I believe that Yquem has no equal (some Loire sweeties can be very good, but I don’t think they have the potntial to attain the power and balance of Yquem).

However, I know little about German wines. I’ve heard that the best BAs and TBAs are quite incredible.

Climens is wonderful, but have you seen the price of recent vintages?

Best regards,
Alex R.

You’re describing incremental value and I agree. But, having said that, if you ignore pricing it is one hell of a wine that has never failed to impress me. So, if that extra $300-500 per bottle is worth that little extra oomph (“this one goes to eleven”), then it’s worth it to you. Not so much for me at this point in my life, but I will be thrilled to drink it any day.

Alex - Max stopped buying futures a few years ago.

This will be the most interesting futures campaign and seems like a game of chicken. I’ll bet the bordelais and negociants will have a lot of hand wringing trying to get pricing right. If the negociants have warehouses full of wine they can’t move (06 & 07) without taking a huge bath, I would assume they would demand significant price control from the bordelais. However, in that murky world, one can never be sure.

Chris

Personally, I think top Loires, such as Huet or Foreau are peer. Perhaps they don’t rely on power (botrytis) to the same extent, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t peers. Huet Cuvee Conastance might but the most similar.

I would also point to certain Tokaji as potential peers.

Personally I find the best expressions of German riesling to achieve better balance and generally outperform Sauternes. In my experience the very best are most certainly peers to d’yquem.

I’ve not had many Alsatian VTs and SGNs, but I’m sure some could make a credible argument for some of these also.

The challenge is to distinguish what makes a peer vs trying simply trying to mirror what d’yquem is.

Jim,

Your experience is obviously broader than mine.

Please, what do the top (really top) German wines cost these days in the USA?

TIA,
Alex R.

Top BAs and TBAs aren’t cheap. But, on average, I’d say they are perhaps 1/2 the cost of d’qyuem. For example, 2006 Fritz Haag Beerenauslese was about $260 for a 750ml.

Anyway, I should probably stop derailing this thread.

If the genre is “dessert wines” I’d say Yquem has lots of competition from the Loire, Germany, and Austria offering equally high quality at lower prices. But I’m not sure I agree that they are really in the same genre. Of course Yquem is a wonderful dessert wine but it can also function just as well with savory courses (forget the cliched foie gras thing, but try Sauternes and lobster!) in a way that the much sweeter types of dessert wines like TBAs are not equipped to do.