I am very aware of tariff impact and supply chain reaction to tariff impact across the tiers in the US, in particular for BevAlc.
My hypothesis for BevAlc is a single example, not indicative of BevAlc as a whole, based on 25 years ITB…and if you read up the reactions by category or price segment are most relevant and will be along with reaction producer, importer, and distributor in that order as one in chain will impact the next in line.
I saw that, thanks for posting, the issue moves to can I actually get a can moving in 7 days and even if I do it has to land AND get thru customs in US where the “lines” are going to be DMV style long.
Damn sense of humour low on WB today
I didn’t flag it and I could really care less. But Todd has been clear about potshot comments that have nothing to do with the issues being discussed.
Frankly, I think tariffs are going to be a relatively minor factor in future wine prices. I think for a few reasons, the dominant trend in wine prices will be downward. Obviously, there will be small production wines whose prices will be counter to this dominant trend, but unless things change, I see the dominant trend in prices to be downward.
Over time, the price of things valuable to generations before baby boomers have gone down, at least in the US. Resale value for things like china, crystal, fine silver ware, old books have been in free fall. As baby boomers get older, the prices for a lot of things treasured by boomers like baseball cards, comics, barbie dolls and yes wine likely will go down as baby boomers leave homes (and have no room for these things in new houses, etc.) and die. Will later generations value these things? Far from certain.
In much of the 1st world, the newer generations coming up are smaller in population that the older generations - look at the US, western Europe, Japan and China. This cannot be good for wine prices.
Alcohol consumption is going down because of weight loss drugs and alternatives like pot.
Are there countervailing trends that contradict these. I am surely not an expert on purchases by younger generations, but I don’t know of any large enough to contradict these - do you?
https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-court-lawsuit-trade-4c289f51008f6a3a02939caa73ab5404
It sounds like the legal arguments against Trump’s authority to impose tariffs unilaterally is being taken very seriously by the Federal Circuit.
Obviously there is far more wine being produced than consumers want.
The flip side is that there is at least as much money being spent on wine than before consumption took a nosedive. The market for fine wine is healthy, but it will be a struggle for most producers below the top tier to maintain a foothold.
For literally centuries, vast volumes of putrid swill from Bordeaux traded successfully on the regional name. Parker famously (and at the time correctly) wrote that the problem with basic Bordeaux is that it gets ripe only 2 years out of 10. That centuries-old bubble burst. From ~275,000 acres, I think it has dropped to under 250,000 and will certainly go lower.
I have to wonder about entry-level Burgundies. Burgundy vineyard acreage is only 1/4 that of Bordeaux. I have to wonder if basic Macon wines will take a serious hit also.
FWIW, gift link to NYT story listing current tariffs, updated as the numbers change:
Interesting hypothesis. But I don’t think consumers on this board care about dominant trends, as we’re all buying the small production wines.
Do Berserkers have any plans on stocking up before the tariffs really hit, and if so, what is the strategy considering that we are in the summer when shipping is discouraged due to hot temps and that the tariffs will probably really hit in the Fall?
Stock up? Most Berserkers already stocked up…too many times! 
Seriously. I am even stocked up on whole coffee beans. 
That’s odd since they only stay really fresh for a month or two and freezing makes no difference. 
In a vacuum sealed bag with a best by date six months out? If only I had asked you first.
Come on, you know Andrew is the expert on everything.
When I posted that I froze coffee beans, I got laughed out of town.
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Source for this info please? I’m OK with the concept that they only stay fresh for a month or two. But can anybody document why freezing does not preserve coffee bean like it does damned near every other foodstuff… and/or if freezing damages the beans in any way, and if so, in what time frame?
I was already too overstocked on most wine. Thankfully most of my ‘22 Bdx futures were expedited by someone in the supply chain, but I’m exposed on the rest of my’22s and the’23s I bought for my grandson’s birth year.
But I did some overstocking between November and February on Armagnac, Scotch, and tea. Plus I hurried up on buying my new car over the winter. Wrapped all of that up long before the first big wave of ridiculous tariffs was announced.
They’re not going to go bad, they just lose the oils quickly and won’t be nearly as fresh and flavorful.
It’s not that they go bad in the freezer, just that it doesn’t help preserve the oils that create the flavor and body in your coffee. So you can drink it, but it won’t be as good as fresh.
I haven’t tested it myself, but every knowledgeable reference I can find says doing this is a good way to freeze coffee beans. Basically, freeze what you can use within a week or so, in a good, airtight bag or container, and avoid opening it and removing just part of the beans. It makes little sense that cooling something would not slow down the processes of deterioration, as long as it’s done right.