Will prices of premium wine actually be less in the future due to decreased demand?

WINE TALK
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I can’t speak to pricing quite yet but can definitely see the demand is down two fold.

One - most wine buyers at higher end restaurants are on a complete hold buying new producers/vintages/etc. The customers that used to come in a $500-$1000 bottles are now buying in the $100-200 range.

Two - I look at what is in stock at distributors. GC Burg stuff that was usually highly allocated is now readily available for purchase, and staying in stock.

That is just a little anecdotal glimpse of the industry side here in the Bay Area. I imagine things are pretty similar elsewhere.

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I would guess yes. At least in the US I just don’t see demand among gen x and z’ers replacing demand from boomers.

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At the high end I think prices are down a bit from the peak but still much higher than they were. I think the price of mid range (for here) wines will go down but not at the very top end in the long run.

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I think it would be naive to forecast any long term decrease in prices, you’re talking about systematic market shifts. I think once you compensate for inflation, though, it’s not impossible

if demand systematically stays low, i would brace for reduced yields more than anything.

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The “sober curious.” Love it. That perfectly describes me these days, dabbling with a day or two a week without wine just to gauge the health effects.

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Yields will be managed for sure, but at the lower end of the spectrum with vine rip ups and vineyard owners run out of business. See threads about the Washington State grape glut and also for Bordeaux government buy outs. The high end houses will continue to make what they can make and let the market bear what it can. Maybe a small dip followed by a flat line for a number of years.

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the high end chateau wont take any significant price decreases IMHO. 2021 → ‘oh we’re using this to prop up prices’ = 2022 is getting a prime bump.

They’ll retain volume and release as library, at first. If that keeps building up volume, then itll be ‘more scrutiny on the parcels that go into the grand vin’

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I should just post this in every thread like this

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