Pat,
Definitely the case for a lot of wines from '05/'09/'10. I cringe every time I see the '05 Haut Brion hammer at auction knowing what I paid for it as futures. Add the cost of storage, insurance, TVM, etc. and it is even worse. Outside of storage/provenance as you mentioned, and maybe format, tough to justify buying futures anymore.
What did you pay for your 2005 Haut Brion futures?
+1
I thought 05 HB Futures were about $550.
Auction prices are usually $700+ if I’m not mistaken. From an investment perspective, that’s a 40% gain. Not to mention, the '05 Futures campaign was famously expensive. Not sure it’s the best point of reference.
If the 2015’s are under $400 on futures, it will probably make sense if you’re planning on buying first growths.
Additionally, I do think you get great prices on the more “middle of the road” wines. Gruaud Larose for $50ish, LLC for $95ish, Monbousquet for $40, Beychevelle $55, Pontet-Canet $85ish, etc.
If you’re into those wines, I don’t think you’ll get better prices than futures. The 05 campaign is a bad example - the world economy was on steroids and people were paying a lot of money for wine. If you can get the 2015’s around the same prices as 2014’s, I think it’ll be a good deal and don’t see Haut Brion going fur under $250 10 years from now.
I don’t swim with the First Growths, but many, many 2005 chateau that were $50-$100 as futures are the same price or cheaper today on WineBid and other auction sites. There are some exceptions, like wines where Parker’s final in bottle score was really high (e.g. the 2005 Malescot St. Exupery) or chateau that are now en vogue and so have gone up in price across the board (e.g. Montrose), but unless you needed an usual format and/or place guaranteed provenance above prices, the 2005 futures market didn’t make any financial sense (even without factoring in the Premier Cru experience).
I wish I paid $550. I must have bought mine pre-arrival (not PC) instead of EP. Average bottle price at auction over the past year has been $645/btl, so not a great return, especially when you add in holding costs. I paid $290 for Pavie from Wine Library in 2006 and that consistently sells for less than $300/btl. What was '05 La Mission EP?
I have not seen much '15 pricing yet, but if the powers that be decide to price like '05/'09/'10 then I see no reason to buy. Personally, I would rather back-fill older vintages, especially at those prices. If they price like '14 and I was building a cellar from scratch, then I might be a player.
Not to make you feel worse, but I paid $375 for 2005 Haut Brion from Macarthurs. La Mish was $215. Pavie, regardless of the Parker scores is not an investment wine. You buy it to drink. Although, prices have moved up since Pavie waspromoted in the classification.
Bottom line, you should pay the price you are willing to drink the wines at. If they go up, great. If they do not, you were planning on drinking the wines anyway.
So I made 3 mistakes!
That depends on if you bought the wines to drink or to make money… Both are fine. It’s only your perspective that changes. FWIW, at least IMO, 05 HB & LMHB are incredible wines that offer unequaled tasting experiences. If that works, you are fine. Pure profit is tougher today. You’d have to run risk. But that is the same for all investments.
I bought a lot of 2005 Bordeaux. I looked at it a few years ago, I doubt it has changed much across the board. The wines I bought are on average, all worth 50% more money. Some are less, some are more. But while that makes me happy and feel smart, I am going to drink them, at least that’s the plan, so the point is moot. And I know I have prefect storage on all my wines.
I started collecting in the mid 90’s. I bought a lot of 89/90 at the time. When I taste bottles that were purchased today, versus the bottles I bought years ago, the vast majority of the time, I enjoy much better tasting experiences with my bottles, than those that are purchased at a later date. That matters to me.
Good point. I plan on buying 2015 Bordeaux that I want to drink, not invest in.
Hopefully pricing is in line with 2014, and I’ll buy a fair amount of Monbousquet, Barton, GPL, Beychevelle, Gloria, Meyney, etc. If you plan on drinking the wine, you won’t get a better deal than EP.
Unless, as Jon pointed out, pricing is in line with the 2015’s. At that point, I’ll probably hold off.
I actually bought all 3 to drink. I agree about La Miss. It is outstanding and very drinkable now with a 4 hour decant. The Haut Brion is a bit too sweet for my taste - maybe my expensive bottles are not representative ![[cheers.gif]](/uploads/db3686/original/2X/0/0ff9bfcdb0964982cd3240b6159868fbdf215b1a.gif "cheers"){kind=small}
. I am sure it will settle down eventually but at $645 a bottle, there are other wines I would rather drink. I just don’t get Pavie and I think a lot of people feel the same way. Maybe Parker will buy it from me.
Last futures I bought was 2000… damn I need to catch up
Who the hell is still buying Bordeaux futures? That ship has sailed, folks.
I’ve been buying Bordeaux on release and en primeur since the 1998 vintage. My experience has been that you usually but not always do a little better buying futures, in the order of 5-20%. If you are investing your money well this difference is minuscule as you would be otherwise holding that cash more than a year longer. But those who believe you can backfill years later for that same cash are dreaming. Your best bet is en primeur or grab it when it hits the shelves. I’ve picked up 2000 La Mission off the shelves on release at 180 a bottle, 2000 Gruaud at 45, 98 Lafite at 175 and the list goes on. 2005 I stayed far away as I did not like the prices and I have almost none in my cellar. But even some of the 2009s and 2010s I bought are selling now at 50-100% above what I paid. Add to that the bottles are guaranteed provenance and for me worth much more than anything sold on auction years later of questionable provenance.
Youngsters!
Tell us how you really feel 
To echo your point, this is a make or break year for EP. Wines like Canon that got some big scores can’t come out at like $150 a bottle and hope to catch lightning in a bottle (2005 was the first time houses like Pavie, Angelus and Cos jacked up prices, and I suspect Canon will do the same this year). One of the other major detractors I see about the vintage is that it’s more or less a Right Bank favored vintage. Rarely do these years appreciate like a Left Bank favored year. Look at 98, and since we are talking about it, 2005. Not saying that wines aren’t great, but the likelihood they will go up in value from EP is slim to none.
Why not? 2015 Canon is absolutely stunning! Not that much is made. It is the equal of any of the world’s great wines. It will hit triple digits with numerous tasters, including me. How many wines can you say that about that sell for $150 per bottle?
I’m not disputing the quality, but why double the price now? If a Napa producer did that, the torches and pitchforks would be out in full force!
Because it is triple the quality! It is the best vintage of Canon ever produced. Consumers cannot have it both ways. It is not fair to demand deep discounts for lesser vintages and not accept price hikes when an estate makes such a sharp jump in quality. In Napa, prices almost always go up. You do not see discounts for years like 2011.
I am not say all, or most wines should get a big jump in price. But when the production is that small, and the wine is stunning, worthy of triple digits, and at the end of the day, the price is still fair for a wine of that quality, why should it be an issue?
That’s working under the assumption that consumers are getting it both ways, and based on the public reaction to EP from 2011-2014, it’s clear that they did not have their requests met.
Canon 2014 was $50 in EP. I grabbed a few.