Ultimately the random and capricious nature of the roundups, the lack of due process, and the unknown end results (does this poor guy end up in South Sudan??) make the entire process fraught.
Yes we need a better immigration process. We also need immigration. Gonna be pretty scary soon when there’s no labor to pick grapes or do roofing.
Don’t worry guys, I’m sure he’ll have everything figured out by the time his 3rd term rolls around
I think this exchange and @Chris_W’s statements are important considerations. All who have entered illegally who have not found means of becoming a citizen know they face a risk of potential deportation, and while that risk ebbs and flows, it’s a risk that has remained for a good long time. Detainment and potential deportation without due process of law should be condemned by all who also argue immigration laws should be enforced. If it’s rule of law, it cannot be a double standard. There is a rule of law for expedited detainment and deportation without hearing, but those are limited to specific circumstances, and an upstanding individual who has been in the United States for decades would not typically fall under the guidelines for expedited detention and deportation.
bye!
I definitely agree with you on the “system is broken”, but I think we should qualify the “if they were here illegally then they broke the law and it’s just being enforced and they deserve what they get”.
I understand you, as long as someone of say Mexican heritage is deported to Mexico and someone of Nicaraguan heritage is deported to Nicaragua. When, or if, someone of Mexican heritage who crossed the border illegally to work winds up in an El Salvadoran prison, I don’t think that’s a morally correct or a just choice. Just my $.02.
That write up is out of date, the current administration updated the rules (as it had previously).
Also, ICE has claimed Sotelo was previously removed in 2006. If so, I believe they can remove him with the previous removal order with no hearing (in immigration court) required.
-Al
Als right. And, if you care about immigration issues even a tiny little bit, regardless of which side, go read Paul Morland’s book The Human Tide: How Population Shaped the Modern World. It’s sensational and eye opening.
Now consider that the United States is a modern, urbanized nation, for the most part, and that most of its population procreates at a rate insufficient to maintain its own population, which leads to an aging national demographic which will inevitably decline in size and economic output capacity over generations unless supplemented in some other form or unless some major reproductive shift takes place. That steady aging and reduction in native population has proven pretty good for stability and peace, but poor for continued long-term economic growth and retention of relative power on an international scale. The United States is proving incapable of reproductive output to sustain let alone grow native population. It needs substantive immigration. I’ll refrain, here, from a debate about why so many have a visceral adverse reaction to immigration. That’s a Politics issue and one I’m happy to discuss there.
Re the article above about Spain, consider that Spain’s population has one of the lowest reproductive rates in the world. In 2023 Spain’s reproductive rate was about 1.12 births per woman, which is indicative of a rapidly declining population generation over generation. In 2025 that increased to 1.23, which ties Japan near the very bottom of the list but is a meaningful improvement. South Korea - .72-.75; China - 1; Germany - 1.39-1.46; Italy - 1.25; UK 1.55; United States - 1.62 (but Morland’s analysis suggests immigration increases the number over 2, which allows growth).
Make no mistake these population demography issues affect policy making and international relations. For instance, note the reproductive rates for Israel 2.85 and Palestine 3.2. Israel has about 9 million people about 7 million of whom are Jewish. West bank has about another 2.7 million Muslims. Gaza had about 2 million. So add your Muslims in Israel + West Bank + Gaza (formerly) and then consider relative reproductive rates and then think about why Israel would not annex Gaza and the West Bank. They’d likely lose a Jewish majority and control of Zion to Palestinian Muslims within a generation or three. If you don’t think those are real population demographic driven decisions, I don’t know what to tell you. Heck, just consider JD Vance talking during presidential campaigns about the importance of having children and whether the USA should grant people with children greater rights or benefits than those who chose not to have children.
Here’s the wiki list for fertility demographics: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fertility_rate.
Fertility rates generally correlate with a country’s citizen’s median age. Nations have sweet spots for populations. Skew heavily young and you have a propensity for violence, low incomes, and high fertility rates. Skew old and you have increased retiree percentages and late life care costs which drain on the economy, though you are more likely to have peace and stability. See Human Tide. Countries like Niger and Uganda have median ages of about 15-16, fertility rates above 5, and are poor as dirt and have been involved in wars and bloody conflicts on and off for decades. By contrast, Japan is relatively wealthy and peaceful, but has been in a global power decline since the mid 90s, gradually declining from the second largest GDP from 1980-2008 or so to a very distant third, with actual inflation adjusted GDP decline in today’s dollars since about 1996. Median age is nearly 50 years old and, unsurprisingly, Japan’s fertility rate is among the world’s lowest.
Germany, at nearly 47, has the world’s 8th oldest median population. It has not had statistically meaningful population increase in the past 25 years despite substantial incoming immigration, which has actually allowed it to maintain significant economic output, though relatively stagnant on an inflation adjusted basis (it’s kept it’s spot in the 3-4 range depending on reporting). https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Society-Environment/Population/Migration/Tables/migration-year-01.html
The United States remains young for the first world with a median age of 38.8. Australia, Iceland, New Zealand are all right around there, and the only other arguably first world nation younger than the United States would be Israel (and it’s way younger at about 30).
If the United States wants to remain relatively youthful, and wants to continue to grow its economic capacity and relative world power, it will need to continue to maintain or better yet increase its population. Or at least in theory. And we are not naturally doing that, and evidence suggests that an increasingly educated female workforce and continued urbanization will meaningfully decrease fertility rates in the United States. So you can ban abortions and promote more births and hope it works, or you can recognize that there is always going to be some necessity to immigration. And that means more people than you think it does.
Note that Spain made a choice that was good for them given their low birth rate. Japan has a low birth rate and has strict immigration policies, and their economy suffers from that combination.
-Al
Snagging a respected vineyard manager gets people talking. Raises hackles. That’s all part of the plan. Stoke anger.
I was referring to ICE agents, who are also our representatives. I don’t begrudge them doing their jobs, properly. I do object to the manner in which (based on the myriad reports we have seen) they are doing their jobs. A comcast service rep would be fired for not wearing his uniform, identifying himself when asked, or treating people in the manner we have seen. An ICE agent, with the authority they have, should be expected to exceed the standards of a TV repairman or Amazon delivery driver.
I definitely left some ambiguity in my comments. The law should certainly be enforced equitably and lawfully. I certainly did not intend for my comments on enforcement to mean “they get what they get.” Both sides should play by the rules.
It’s perhaps worth noting, also, that a number of state jurisdictions now have some version or another of what commonly are referred to as “stand your ground” laws. Those laws, when mixed with masked individuals dressed in what may or may not be real law enforcement uniforms seizing individuals on the street, in their homes, or out of their vehicles, can be expected at some point to lead to disastrous, perhaps even fatal, consequences for the seized individuals, those doing the seizing, or completely innocent bystanders. This ain’t any way to run a railroad, so to speak.
I worked with Moises back in 1996 at Archery Summit when he was the vineyard manager of the Red Hills vineyard. Great guy. Frankly I’m surprised he wasn’t up on all his paperwork. Hope he comes out the other side of this well.
For sure, I didn’t take your comment in that way. I just wanted to express a line that I feel is important in this conversation.
I agree whole heartedly that this is about human decency and always has been a poor unestablished process. Resolution needs to be made to both accept those who are contributors to society as citizens and also bring in those who wish to contribute with the intention of making them citizens. Why leave it up to illegal practice to support both our communities and the desire to achieve the American dream. As mentioned its not our job to resolve the issue but this should be something everyone wants.
From what I understand, it’s not even a legal choice. It just takes the legal system time to catch up.
-Al
Whoa! No you don’t. Over to politics with this.
The fix is a currently intractable political issue so won’t happen.
I’m posting in the other thread. I’ll add the link when it’s up.
https://www.wineberserkers.com/t/vineyard-manager-arrested-by-ice/337456/21?u=richardflack