I was bidding on a few lots of HN but they were going above retail so I dropped out. Ended up snatching some 16 Richebourg for well under retail.
I also think 89 percent of the lots going over the high estimate is the only number I need to know.
I’m sure HDH is giving a correct percentage, but I must have looked at at least 20 lots in a row that did not make the high estimate, and a lot of them were DRC.
It is perilous to evaluate a single auction’s outcome based on sales prices relative to estimates. The only way to really know is to look at recent trends of actual hammer prices.
There are many factors that go into estimates which may have little to do with the expected outcome. There are warring psychological theories at play for a start- one argument is that higher estimates stimulate interest by suggesting a strong market. Another argument is that lower estimates give a greater impression of the potential for bargains which will have the effect of luring more buyers and increasing the odds of emotional in-the-moment bidding wars.
Remember too that seller’s commission structures often include a “lotting fee” which is a percentage of the high or low estimate of a lot. That lotting fee may be repeated for unsold lots that are reoffered again later. And in some circumstances- notably with very large or desirable consignments, the lotting fee is the seller’s commission charge in its entirety.
And finally the consignor often has a say. Very often for myself or for a client I have adjusted reserves and estimates to reflect the reality of either an “everything must go” mentality or an insistence that something needs to sell for a certain price or not at all.
I have not had a look at the HDH results, but I did watch most of the Acker HK sale and I have been watching online auctions at Zachy’s, Acker and winebid closely for quite a while as I and clients have been doing a lot of selling- and personally I have not yet seen any sustainable weakness recently.
The last time I saw any major weakness in the high end wine markets in the US was just over a year ago when panicked retailers offered discounts as they moved to curbside only and when a lot of champagne hit the auction market on fear of slow future sales. Noone had any idea that the high end market was going to benefit grandly from COVID- with a little help from tariffs delaying a replenishment of supplies from Europe.
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I also glanced in at this auction (for entertainment purposes only) and got the impression that things were slowing a bit compared to the frenzy of last year. Not that the market was “weak” exactly but that it was plateauing. From last year I remember HDH auction lots all going way over the high estimate and almost nothing below. Here there was a lot that was right around the high estimate. Maybe they just updated their estimates or something.
Hudelot-Noellat was one of the ones I noticed going below high estimates a couple of times, the Vougeot in particular. H-N doesn’t seem to be taking off into the stratosphere the way some other producers have.
You’re right about H-N with the exception of the Richebourg and RSV, which are approaching the status of cultish.
No producers wines sell into the stratosphere across the board. That is only reserved for the best vineyards from strong vintages. There are a few exceptions but they are rare.