Sales drop by 25% due to trade war

WINE TALK
21

I had the same questions. My guess is that the sales of high end Napa wine are very small, so a 25% drop may be a statistical blip.

22

I don’t know, populism seems to be en vogue on both sides of the aisle these days. I don’t see any free market/free trade candidates on the horizon. Better not count on a political rescue.

23

Return China’s favor by making made in China products dead in the US. See which country blinks first!

24

You do realize that a large number of very important products are pretty much only made in China.

No…you probably don’t.

25

I think it’s important to keep our eye on the real prize here: trade/international relations is a zero sum game so we must persevere.

Plus, this predominantly affects California in a negative way, so winning!

Do vintners get the 125,000 dollars for each ‘farmer’ that other ag people are getting?

I wonder if a vineyard can say it is changing to cotton and get 959,000 bucks Frische Farms in Texas got, so far?

26

You are undoubtedly sitting in front of, or holding, a Chinese made electronic device. That is by far the largest category of imports from China, followed by other electrical equipment. Shall we start with that?

27

And bogus pharmaceuticals.

And Dollar Store inventory.

Higher end wine like > Yao Ming > dropped by half.

Holy crap! This spat is even affecting one of the world’s greatest wines?!

[wow.gif]

28

Toys (especially motorized adult toys) and clothing would be logical categories to attack, but the former would piss off Trump supporters, and the latter would cause a significant bump in inflation.

29

You cannot recreate an industry overnight.

(and it’s not just motorized adult toys)

30

THEY’RE MASSAGE DEVICES!!

31

Thought the gub’ment said the trade war is having NO effect on the US economy?
We mean we wuz lied to?? [wow.gif]

32

Two thoughts on this - the impact on Napa really depends on the length of the trade war. Producers will ride out a few years. But in the worst case (You know who re-elected and no resolution) those who have significant Chinese clientele will suffer.

A longer term risk is that France/Italy/Spain see weakness and step into the void and take more or less permanent market share from the US. If I were selling wine from those countries I’d sure be doubling down on China. But gotta think twice about shipping through the straits of Hormuz!

33

Drone delivery! :wink:

34

You mean $48/case, not bottle.

35

Indeed, corrected

36
37

Okay, but the question was about Napa, not California. The premise of many comments in this thread is that mainland Chinese demand (as opposed to Hong Kong) for high end Napa wines has driven up prices, which I simply do not think is the case—though I am open to correction.

38

At an average price per case of $48, it sure ain’t premium Napa cab. Sounds like Gallo and Franzia.

39

Possible we see more and more secondary markets such as K&L and JJ Buckley buying more of the high end Napa wine and selling it at X% off such as Mondavi Reserve To Kalon for $99 a bottle rather than $175 at the winery. Maybe Opus will be $299 rather than $375 at the winery. Or Schrader for $199… [popcorn.gif]

40

That would be a fairly normal differential, since the wineries usually charge list price so they don’t compete with their retail distribution network. The retailers are free to discount.