psa: decent cache of '10 bellene(potel) pc/gc @ PC

esp vr malconsorts, csd, and even rsv (any tns?). '10 burgs should be pretty scarce in the near future.

I saw that and bought some of the Malconsorts. Nice deal for that wine.

Interesting, but does PC ever deliver on its pre-arrival burgs?

Yes, in my extensive experience. The very few stories that I’ve heard/read about those who didn’t get their wines, those people were made whole through another offer or refund.

Feel free to check the hundreds of Premier Cru related threads, many of which are on the prearrival to in-stock delays…

This topic has been discussed ad-nausea. I’ve had good luck with PC in the past, especially with Burgs, which in my experience have come into stock faster than Bdx. In any event, I think most sophisticated buyers know with PC that they will get great prearrival pricing but have to wait a bit. It’s worked for me in the past and I remain a buyer. For others, it’s not worth the wait/gamble.

I think buying futures from PC is insane. YMMV.

I happily buy from PC. I’ve received over 95% of what I’ve ordered, and the other (less than 5%) has been handled very professionally.

+1

Exactly, which is entirely consistent with it being insane to buy from PC.

You are taking uncompensated credit risk, over years. If the wine wildly appreciates in price they give you a “refund” or “make it right” somehow, but whatever they do, they cap their risk to a sudden spike in the price of the wine.

If the wine depreciates, you’re locked in and they make a profit.

If PC goes bankrupt, you’re an unsecured creditor. You’re be lucky to get a few pennies on the dollar.

From PC’s point of view, its a brilliant business model. PC gets money years in advance of having to provide any product, which is essentially free financing (especially if PC is growing; every increase in the size of the futures base provides free capital). PC essentially gets a free option on every futures purchase; if the wine becomes too expensive PC will refund your money; if PC can score it very cheaply, pure profit.

Why do people buy from them? Because customers are short-sighted. Customers don’t properly value the credit risk, they don’t understand that they’re paying years in advance for a transaction in which, at best, they can be a small winner and at worst they can lose everything. I guess you could say that PC is sufficiently big that they have economies of scale, and by buying from them the customer benefits from that, but is that really worth the multi-year exposure to their credit? (Oh, btw, you have no idea how liquid or solvent they are, BUT LOOK AT THEIR SHINY NEW STORE OH THEY MUST BE ROLLING IN IT).

Also, I don’t necessarily trust grey market wines, especially with increasingly hot weather in Europe in recent years.

But knock yourself out. Save the 10% a bottle. Tell yourself you’re getting a deal.

PS: Business models like PC always work perfectly until they collapse. Past performance doesn’t tell you much of anything.

Saving 10% and waiting a year aint so bad. Not too many investment vehicles out there at 10%

With unknowable risk of losing 100%? Better you than me.

It’s not an investment vehicle. You never get your money back with interest. You just get the wine.

yeah, but you pay less money for it, and that’s money you can do something else with.

in any event, i think, at least on this board, peoples’ views on the matter are pretty well established. i’m a small fish and never have that much money tied up in PC. i also spread my purchases around different sources. if i had 10s or 100s of thousands on pre-arrival at PC, i think i would be a bit more wary than i am. but so far PC has delivered for me.

Regardless of whether you have lots of money tied up or not, the question is whether the discount at PC - accounting for PC’s option to fail to deliver in the unusual case of a significant price spike or shortage - justifies the risk Buyer has to take on. If PC offered unique bottles, then its a different calculus, but generally bottles I’ve seen at PC are available elsewhere, albeit at a slightly higher price and often not on futures.

fwiw, i’ve purchased numerous bottles from PC that have spiked in price (like up 300-400%) and they’ve never failed to deliver those bottles. i am not aware of a systematic trend where PC fails to deliver in the instance of escalating value of pre-arrival wines, but again my experience is relatively limited compared to some.

The notion that pc takes an option on delivering wines is preposterous. That isn’t what is going on and I’ve never heard anyone suggest that there is a correlation between the small percentage of wines that don’t get delivered and the relative price spike in those wines. In this instance, I actually think past performance is a pretty good indicator of future performance. They’ve made it through some fairly difficult economies during their 35 years in business. And, if you use Amex, you have 60 days to dispute the charge from the promised date of delivery. So you can effectively reduce your risk of a bankruptcy to zero.
A

David,
Much of what you write is either incorrect or only partially correct. I just don’t have the time or inclination to play the ‘PC the Devil’ game with you. But for fun, I’ll disabuse one of your notions, the unsecured credit risk one. In the language that I’m sure you’ll understand, you can buy a CDS on PC, for free. Just charge your purchase with an Amex card. If PC goes down, Amex will give you a refund (I’ve had better luck with this with Amex vs MasterCare, btw. Used this with maybe 3 stores over time, Amex perfect refund record).

And to be clear. I buy wine from PC, they deliver the vast majority of what I’ve ordered, I notice no correlation between delivery rate and either the value of the purchased with or any increase (or decrease) in value of the wine from purchase date to delivery date. For wine that doesn’t wind up being delivered, I have always worked out a fair deal for either a substitute, a store credit, or a cash refund. No complaints from me. Only praises.

Same. Only item they couldn’t deliver for me in the last few years was some '04 Burgundies, and I was quite happy to take the refund instead of the wines.

strong assumption to believe that PC will fail. Do you believe every retailer will fail?