I’m not bullish on domestic wine. I just don’t think that release prices will come down. Most wineries will hope that this is a momentary blip. Eat a bunch of inventory instead of dropping prices to a level that will sell though and take a bath next year.
I think imports will be way down due to tariffs and significantly reduced restaurant sales. I think restricted supply of imports will keep pricing higher than if the wine was flowing freely without tariffs.
Correct answer is “it depends”. Wineries generally try not to compete with their distributors, so they price things at the winery equal to or above what you would find at regular retail. There are tons of exceptions to this. Wineries that have very strong dtc sales don’t need to do this as much. Highly sought after wineries don’t need to do this as much. There is often different pricing at the distribution level for off premise vs. on premise sales. Restaurants almost always pay less than retailers. (even thought their margin is much much higher). If a pinot costs $50 at retail, the retailer probably paid $38-$42 for it. The distributor probably paid $27-$30 to the winery. Same bottle at a restaurants costs $ 100-150