Predicting Ageibility

WINE TALK
1

So…we all “know” how to predict that some wines will age into something profound when we first taste them. If it’s black as the ace-of-spades, huge extraction, huge fruit, high alcohol, plenty of toasty/oak, big tannins, huge scores out of Monktown…we all know & recognize that genre…it’s a no-brainer that they’ll evolve into something special. Colgin/ScreamingEagle/Harlan/Pavie/Alban/SQN/Grange are some that come to mind.
And then there are some that don’t fit that exact paradigm…notably Barolo/Barbaresco. They don’t have a lot of fruit or color (or shouldn’t have), but they have a tannic structure that takes your head off and you just “know” they will age into something great. Tuscan Sangio & Brunello also fit that character to a lesser extent. Perhaps Burgundy. Perhaps Northern Rhone.
And then there are some that totally baffle me. As I was writing my TN up on the Geyserville '12…I thought it was an attractive enough OV Zin, but didn’t see anything particularly profound about it. Then I looked at Eric’s predicted ageibility: 11/13-11/23-11/28 !! I didn’t see anything in that wine I thought would carry it out 18 yrs…except maybe its perfect balance.
I had the Ridge Zin EastBench '08 last weekend. That wine, on release, was just a simple raspberry/vanilla-oak pretty Zin w/ nothing particularly to recommend it or putting any away. It had, in fact, put on a fair amount of weight and had a lot of blackberry/Zin fruit, developed some complexity, and, though not profound, was an absolutely delicious-drinking Zin that could go another 3-5 yrs I expect.
I find my experience w/ many Ridge ATP Zins much like that EastBench. Nothing thrilling, kinda simple/light when I first taste them, but they have this uncanny knack of rising up, down the road w/ some age, and biting you on the a$$ w/ how good they are. Same story w/ many of the EdStJohn reds. Same thing w/ the Cedarville Syrah '98 recently. Many of the Novy Syrahs and the Siduri Pinots.
Crimeny…how do you go about identifying these kinds of wines for ageibility?? Is it the balance they often show when young that allows them to age into something great? Do you just rely on your experience w/ that producer/winemaker on deciding which of these wines will age well? How do you explain that to a novice that…yeah…this Qupe Sonnie’s Syrah is not nearly as impressive as the Alban Syrah from across the road…but it will age into something great. They give you this half-cocked look…yeah/sure…and then buy the Alban at 5X the price.
Anywho…I’m still trying to figure out this wine ageibility thing. I need to take more data points. My wine world would be a whole lot simpler if I just relied on Laube & Parker, look at their big scores, and buy what they tell me to. But then I’d spend a whole lot more $$'s, I suspect.
Somebody please help me out. End of today’s pontifications. [stirthepothal.gif]
Tom

2

I revisit a bottle over 2 or 3 days, only recorking and holding at room temperature. If it is as good or better on days 2 and/or 3, I figure it has the bones to age well.

3

Tee hee!
On a serious note, if a critic reports on a wine in its 50th vintage, where the style has remained reasonably consistent, and says it should peak in 10-15 years, then assuming said critic has decent experience of that wine, and I don’t typically disagree with their drinking windows, then I will treat that assessment with a good degree of respect.

However if someone picks a completely new wine to them, and on the strength of a quick sniff and slurp, pronounces it to be “at peak in 15 years”, then I’ll need more than a pinch of salt to follow their advice precisely.

TBH even tge drinking windows I put down for the wines I have in CT are really only there for ‘indicative’ purposes. I don’t look at them directly, but have been known to sort by start or end of window when thinking I wanted something mature, or even potentially over-mature. I then select the one I fancy first, rather than looking at the dates.

Regards
Ian

4

Tom - if the label says “Ridge Geyserville” on it, the associated wines seem to age magically.

I hope that helps. [wink.gif]

5

Yup…simple solutions for simple minds. Thanks for the help, Mike. [snort.gif]
Tom

6

Yup…therein in lies a big part of the problem, Ian. When a critic tastes a wine from a new wnry, or a new variety, or a new growing area, and pronounces that it needs 10-15 yrs
of age, usually spoken w/ a great deal of authority, it often leaves me scratching my head…“How the heck do they know that??”

When Parker pronounced the Qupe & EdStJohn wines as disappointing and not what they were in the past and sent Bob & Steve packin’ to the woodshed, it left me
scratching my head and wondering just exactly how much experience he’s had w/ aged examples of those wines. Ohhh…well…Bob & Steve are, at least, drinkin’ well out in that woodshed.
I should rather like to join them.
Tom

7

There are tons of variables at play with the age-ability of red wines. I don’t drink many “old” reds that touch above 14.5% abv. Many wines that creep above this level have yet to establish a clear picture of where they’ll be in 10,20, 30+ years. We know these kinds of wines have more “extracted” fruit and higher alcohol when young. Plenty of board members are in the process of drinking through these uncharted wines; while trying to observe what they morph into when their fruit eventually starts to tone down. Some people believe a red wine has to show great fruit in its youth to show well in old age. Personally, I love the fruit notes of dried/tart cranberries/cherries that show up in 30-40+ year old wines that were overtly tannic, acidic, and downright unappealing to most in their youth.

8

For me, this is the crux of the biscuit. I don’t think I can predict aging, but I can trust a producer with a track record.

The bigger problem is newer producers or producers who’ve undergone a “style change” due to their earlier, more bombastic styles not aging well. Generally I proceed with caution unless I find myself easily relating to the young wines, but I have to wonder which of these will age into something more interesting like Ridge ATP or Tablas Creek. If my own style of decision making is any predictor, I’ll just make a bunch of bad decisions.

Coincidentally I was stashing away my latest Ridge ATP shipment today and cursing myself for quitting that program for a while, for the exact reasons you write.

9

My experience for Ridge wines, is the higher the percentage of petite sirah, the more likely the wine is to age.

10

Ridge has everything I could ever want in a wine: quality, consistency, ageability, diversity. If I had to pick just one producer to drink, I would be hard pressed to find a better winery.

11

Scott Fitzgerald wrote:
Ridge has everything I could ever want in a wine: quality, consistency, ageability, diversity. If I had to pick just one producer to drink, I would be hard pressed to find a better winery.

I agree that Ridge combines quality and consistency. I find their aging ‘windows’ on the label very helpful, and they tend to be a bit on the conservative side.

Thanks,
Ed

12

A crap shoot for me. If there’s good balance of fruit, acidity and tannins on release, I generally assess “ageworthy” to some degree. Ditto if the acidity/stucture isn’t apparent, but there’s good complexity to the wine…it morphs from midpalate to finish and/or evolves favorably with extended air. If no complexity or structure on release, likely a “drink within a few years” kind of wine. If oak/vanilla are the overwhelmingly dominant notes on release, the red flags go up for me re: long term aging.

As others have suggested, knowing a producer (assuming style consistency year-over-year) makes the exercise easier. I’m still of the mind that most of my Turley zins get consumed within 5 years of release. On the other hand, I haven’t found a Dunn that I’ve thought I drank “too late”.

Regarding pro reviews - Different pro reviewers have different “drink by” paradigms. I’ve had countless wines well outside of WS drinking windows (“crap, I’ve let these lay around for too long”) that have seemed youthful with years of life remaining. I think in general that WS “drink by” windows are overly conservative, at least on domestic wines. Conversely, I’ve had a number of bottles that WA suggest should age forever that don’t impress me as having what’s needed for the long haul. Specifically, I thought Jay Miller’s consumption windows were consistently extended too far into the future.

13

Standard WS drinking window: current year through tomorrow. :wink:

14

Hi Tom, ok, I’m going to give this Wine Berserkers think a try here… Here’s my two cents: After a recent tasting of ten year old Syrah with Fred Swan of NorCal wine blog I was struck by how most (not all) of the bigger alcohol wines, although delicious, simply didn’t have any structure left. They we’re flat wines that made me think more of drinking pomegranate juice than they did wine. The wines with modest alcohol levels had great structure and although they may have been closed down and somewhat tight in their youth had developed into complex, structured beauties. Now I know it’s not as simple as that because some wines with slightly higher alcohol levels can also have high levels of acidity but it seems like acidity has a lot to do with how a wine will age. I know I’m not the first to come up with this theory but it was fun to see it firsthand.

15

Funny Tom…I thought whenever I need advise on the ageability of wines, I would just ask you!

Your database of wine notes and their progress over the years is unparalleled!!

16

And you tasted most of those in their youth? And then the same wines 30 years later? That’s how you develop some sense of what will age. Otherwise it’s regurgitating what others have said.

Tom’s question is one that most people can’t answer and for good reason. I’ve asked many wine makers that question. Mariano Garcia, who made many vintages of Vega Sicilia, couldn’t provide a clear, bright-line answer. If he can’t nobody can. Ditto Paul Draper at Ridge, who has managed to prove that Zin can age. They, and just about everyone else I have asked, simply said the wine has to be balanced to start and then they just have to find out from experience.

Some people say it’s tannin or acidity or something simple like that, but most of those people aren’t wine makers who’ve made wine that drinks wonderfully at 40 years out. So it is probably best to ignore those folks.

The more wine I drink, the less I know. Some wines are indifferent in youth and turn into something bigger and more complex with time. Some are tannic and impenetrable in youth and they stay that way. Some are oaky and dry and then the oak integrates and the wines are wonderful. Some are basically just fruity when young and then they take on a completely different character with age.

I don’t think alcohol levels are necessarily relevant. Port ages pretty well and it’s over 14.5. Nor do I think that we lack any track record for wines of 14.5 alcohol and higher - there are plenty of those too and some folks have had them going back many vintages.

It seems to be far more complicated. Grape variety has something to do with it and increasingly I think that it’s not just variety, but variety + place grown + vinification + year. Some big Barossa wines seem to age pretty well, but not all. Some leaner Saumur wines seem to age pretty well, but not all.

When it comes to a critic never having had a wine from some place, it’s best to simply ignore the prediction. He doesn’t know any better than anyone else. For newer producers, at the end of the day, I’d probably bet on the wine maker above anything else.

17

If you got the Buchignani Zin '10, Larry…you’re in for a real treat. Stunning stuff by John.
Tom

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Awwww, shucks, Ryan. I didn’t realize you were one of the TomHillSheep. [snort.gif]

But thanks for the compliment. I don’t think I have any particular skills in predicting ageibility…it is a crapshoot.
Tom

19

[scratch.gif] Boy, I had the opposite reaction. That is exactly the type of wine that I would expect to fall apart in a few years - or at least go into suspended animation where it doesn’t die, but it doesn’t really age.

For me, I like balance and purity of fruit, with nice acid. But really, like a number of others, I believe in track record. If the bottle says Ridge or Chateau Montelena or Mayacamas or Stony Hill or Kalin, etc., odds are pretty good it will age. If the winery is a brand new winery releasing its first or second Cabernet, it is a crap-shoot.

20

Wow. I agree with Mike. Something wrong here. neener