I don’t think there’s much evidence to support this. Most studies overwhelmingly find that the increased risk of mortality from increased alcohol use is mostly due to the very significant increase in risk of female breast cancer. The large trials the WHO relied on were pretty equivocal once you took that variable out. I do think there are likely negative health benefits from alcohol but not sure the no safe level rubric makes any sense.
I’ve read there is also evidence of increase in head and neck cancers, but haven’t looked up the details. These studies are very difficult to perform, as you know, and the government guidelines reflect a lot of factors beyond the studies.
Personally, I suspect there are some negative effects and possibly some positive effects and drinking in moderation makes sense, although there is a lot of debate over “moderation”.
-Al
Don’t let political view cloud your judgement…
cheers.
With heavy drinking and smoking there’s a decent increase; with moderate drinking and no smoking the risk is quite low and may not be statistically significant in many cases. It’s nowhere near as large as the risk for female breast cancer which is as high as the risk of oral cancer in smokers/heavy drinkers. I don’t find a 1-3% increased risk on balance, once everything is factored in, to really move the needle.
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More wine, less grain? As a pasta and Italian wine lover, I’m conflicted.
At least there’s still the antipasti!
This was the point of my post.
I appreciate your experience here and I am sure that plenty of research is done as well as possible. But with assuming that research isn’t inherently biased, these days we should all probably assume that it isn’t inherently unbiased either.
I don’t think we live in the days, if we ever did, of not having to question just about everything we read. Not because good research isn’t being done, we just don’t really know which is and which isn’t-or which is simply being spun to create a more melodramatic impression than is necessary.
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All of this just makes me want to go crawl under a rock.
Except that I have a lot of Goodfellow.
Thank you, Marcus, for the motivation to endure! 
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The guidelines are public policy, not science. The underlying science is challenging. Public policy is inherently about more than just the science.
-Al
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Honestly, I found your regimen for moderating the negative effects of alcohol, both short term and long term to be enlightening.
I wish we could evolve the official conversation away from, if you have this many drinks it’s ok and this many is too much towards a place where we can understand the social and community benefits of wine and educate people on how to minimize the negative impacts.
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Research has always had the potential to be biased or wrong.
Wakefield’s paper was published almost 30 years ago. NEJM published the paper suggesting coffee may cause pancreatic cancer in 1981. You always need to read research critically and carefully analyze the methodology.
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I think as we get into it and get more wearable data, the bigger question will be the effects of alcohol on overall health, not just simply cancer risk, where they are mostly splitting hairs, as opposed to potentially huge effects from things like sleep disruption and overall general health effects.
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This is ALL politics. Zero science. You can argue that there isn’t much hard science when it comes to nutrition, but when it comes to RFK and the Trump administration it is what’s good for big business, the powers that be. I’m a wine lover and I will continue tobe a wine lover, but the science says there is no safe amount of alcohol and ni beneficial effects.
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I think the new usda nutrition guidelines fall very much in line with rfk’s general beliefs that lean protein and vegetables abd minimizing processed foods are best for health, which isn’t necessarily in line with what big business wants.
Regarding the alcohol guidelines I think the policy is completely reasonable.
That is not what the science says. There are certainly dose dependent health risks from alcohol, especially for women, but the cardiovascular effects aren’t entirely well understood, and even in the newest AHA consensus statement there was discussion about positive health benefits. I do think eventually that some of the negative health effects I mentioned above will be better studied, but there isn’t conclusive evidence to state that there’s no safe amount. Women probably should minimize alcohol use to decrease the risk of breast cancer, and obviously high levels of consumption (of which category many on this forum would fall into) have many negative health effects, but I think the advice to decrease alcohol consumption is likely more accurate than the 1/2 drink algorithm.
Specifically, from a Harvard professor who was paid by the sugar industry.
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When Harvard looked into the study about the dangers of saturated fats vs sugars, they did find the ‘smoking gun’… a letter from the Prof to his sugar baron daddy stating (approximately) "I know what results you want and please be assured that you will get them (that was written towards the beginning of the trials).
What are the conflicts of interest with publicly funded research?
Lots of conflicts of interest with grant reviewers, it’s a small clubby space, etc
Your point about general health impact resonates. My wearables have highlighted the significant impact of alcohol consumption on my sleep. I drink infrequently but when I do it’s usually 1-2 bottles of wine over hours of dinner+socializing. I don’t stress that my alcohol consumption is meaningfully increasing my risk of cancer (I don’t think the data supports that concern) but I did change from more frequent wine drinking to my current approach in part because it worsened my sleep in ways that seemed to compound more over time.
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Cool, you can read the health supplements thread for some advice I give about ameliorating the ill effects of alcohol on sleep/health/well-being.
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Good to know. Will definitely check that out.
By my definition, that would constitute bingeing which has been suggested to be the most unhealthy way to consume alchohol. If it was 1-2 glasses over an evening, your sleep would be very different. If I drink more than a half bottle, my sleep noticeably suffers.
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