Napa Vintage 2011 Update

Thought I would update. I have had many 2011s the last month and thought I would just throw out some observations…

1. Feelings about the vintage are way up
I was one of the first to claim that the vintage was “mixed,” but I was not in any way alone on this feeling. But once it was all said and done and in barrel, virtually everyone without a single exception seems to like this vintage more than when we were making our picking decisions. Even though the filet of the valley (Rutherford/Oakville) were forced to pick before perfect ripeness due to mold and botrytis pressures, what is in barrel is making everyone happy.

2. 2011 is probably better than 2009 and 2010
In those vintages, it took almost a year for winemakers to conclude the wines were better than we thought. In 2011, it was obvious by the time it went to barrel.

3. Color is outstanding
Since much of the fruit was picked when the grapes were very soft, color extraction is tremendous this year.

4. This will be a dream year for those wanting lower alcohols.
Especially on the valley floor. Most of the floor was picked at 23.5-24.5 brix and on top of that, alcohol conversions are oddly low, in the .55 instead of .6 range. Many wines are in the 13.5-14.2% range naturally (not watered back) with firm tannins. There are few wines with pruney or even jammy flavors. The flavors are red and black cherry and currant. Those who have been wishing for something like this should start saving your money, as this is the “naturally” lowest alcohol “good” year since 1994. I think this might go down as a Bordeaux styled vintage on the floor.

5. The mountains kicked ass
Thirty days before harvest, it looked like doomsday in the mountains, with brix in the 20-22 range and green flavors. But the last 3 weeks of 80-90F with no rain and low humidity ripened them to brix levels beyond the valley floor for the first time since my arrival in 2005. Those who like mountain wines should gear up. I have heard a couple of mountain winemakers say these are the best mountain wines they can remember.

6. Low yields, and lower production.
Any trend of a high-end glut will be over by the time this one comes out. After culling of lots ( a must for almost everyone) and the vineyard pressures and shatter in June, you will see a 30-40% drop in volumes. Also, some very popular cuvees of some cult wines will not be made this year due to low volumes. I feel bad for those trying to decide allocations for buyers when they are released.

Possible flies in the ointment…

1. Lurking veggie?
I have started to sense some green emerging at the end of malo in a few wines, even those brought in above 24 brix. Veggie flavors are harder to notice when the wine is in tank at 80F. It is possible that the low humidity might have raised sugar without necessarily ripening the fruit in some cases. This will have to be watched and could be the one thing that changes opinions. Which leads to…

2. $$$$ vs. declassification
Most wineries I have visited do have specific lots of wine with veggie aromas or rather weak mouth-feels. The good news is that it is not hard to figure out which lots are which when you try them. The key will be… with yields already down and many wineries facing losing money in the vintage with low production but still the same production costs, can they really bulk out 1/4 to 1/3 of what is left to make sure the best stuff gets put out without dilution? We will see.

roy - thanks for this, very helpful as always

Another brilliant post. Thank you.

Roy, how about some holiday pics from Napa

Thanks for this post, Roy.

Question for you: considering how excited many winemakers are about 2011 (as compared to 2009 and 2010), do you think their experience with 2011 might change the manner in which they have their plot(s) farmed in future vintages? (to the extent that they’re able to have their plot(s) farmed as they wish)