My magic 8-Ball says that once the 2013 Cirq Treehouse and Bootleggers are released and start to be opened, we will know if you Magic-8 ball is correct.
Reva still seems to do well, and like Poppy says, moves with Parker points. The luxury cuvées have found their market value and generally hold. The whites all trade at a loss.
Speaking in general terms, Screagle, SQN and Marcassin are the only good long term bets in California - with Marcassin being the biggest anomaly. California Pinot and Chard just aren’t something many collectors are looking for. KB is the new comer in the Cali pinot realm, but the numbers are so small that you just can’t look at that as an investment - buying/holding/listing/selling/shipping isn’t worth the $20 you’ll ‘profit’ per bottle.
As Poppy affirmed above, you need to be prepared to pursue less than legal means of liquidation to actually realize ‘market’ values when reselling. Add in the increased effort of actually selling the wine - listing/emails/recipt of payment/packing/shipping - the law of diminishing returns kicks in quickly.
A thread for the truly mercenary and it’s worth of note that there are no long term odds mentioned above: as in “Mailing list wines that will hold their value.”